Profil de circonscription
| ||New Democratic|
Feuillette, Christian P.
| ||Bloc Québécois|
Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage
| ||08 10 11
|Joshua: there are plenty of reasons why someone might think that this riding could go NDP. As noted by several contributors below, the demographics of this riding are almost ideally suited to the NDP; but until recently, no-one in Montreal took the NDP seriously at all. I studied at McGill in the early 90's, and later returned to work in the West Island for a bit; I remember that the NDP candidates were usually complete nobodies back then. That has changed: Daniel Breton might not be in the quite the same league as Thomas Mulcair, but he's got a much higher profile than previous nominees. |
Consider also the Segma poll of 5-8 October, which showed the NDP at 16% in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area (which, by the way, includes Laval and large chunks of the Laurentides, Lanaudiere and Monteregie regions).
Such support seems much more likely to be concentrated in a small number of ridings than spread out across the region; it is natural to think that Jeanne-Le-Ber must be one of that small number.
| ||08 10 10
|A local survey is giving 5 point ahead for St-Cyr (thought error margin for those kind of local survey is typically 4%). While St-Cyr is not well known on the national scene he has a big notoriety in his own riding.|
| ||08 10 10
|With all the confusion going on in this riding regarding who is the strongest federalist candidate, and with the Bloc way ahead in province-wide polls, I now predict a relatively easy win for the Bloc here.|
| ||08 10 08
|I'm not sure why some people have been thinking this riding might go NDP as they are not really in contention here at all. This has pretty much always been a BQ vs. Liberal race in this election.|
According to a recent poll, the BQ has a small lead at 33%, followed by the Liberal at 29%:
| ||08 10 08
|At the beginning of this election campaign, when both the Tories and the NDP were polling strong in Quebec, I had this riding pencilled in as an NDP gain, along with WVM, Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer. But I hesitated posting my thoughts at the time, because in my gut I felt sure that the familiar mould of Quebec politics would reassert itself. Sure enough, both the Liberals and the BQ are now bouncing back and the two ?foreign? parties are slumping. So I'm putting this riding back into the Lib/BQ toss-up column, with a small advantage to the incumbent St-Cyr. |
| ||08 10 07
|It's far from a sure thing but I used to live in this riding, and with a very weak Bloc candidate and a working class, student and immigrant population I think that Breton can ride the coattails of the NDP surge in Outremont and Westmount-Ville Marie and have a serious chance of winning. |
Francophones (at least on the island) are beginning to take the NDP seriously and I think Breton could surprise people in this riding.
| ||08 10 07
|Normalement, avec la remontée des libéraux au Québec, j'aurais donné ce siège au PLC. Mais les divisions internes dues au fait que le candidat libéral soit controversé et un proche de Raymond Lavigne pourraient coûter le siège aux libéraux et permettre la réélection du député bloquiste sortant. Difficile, très difficile à dire.|
| ||08 10 03
|Lizza Frulla a failli résister la vague anti-léberale de la dernière élection uniquement grâce à son nom. Elle a été, et est toujours, passablement appréciée des gens qui la voit encore régulièrement à la télévision. Dans ce contexte et à la lumière de ce qui est écrit plus bas , il apparait presque impossible que le candidat libéral rattrape celui du Bloc. De plus, le fait que la pertinence du Bloc à Ottawa ne fait plus vraiment les manchettes (même pas au débat! Une première!) et les récents sondages montrent qu'ils s'avèrent beaucoup plus probable que les Libéraux vont se faire gruger de son vote que le Bloc se fasse gruger son vote. Bref, gain Bloc par une majorité possiblement plus importante, sauf peut-être si les gens vont moins voter.|
| ||08 09 30
|I have voted right-of-centre in this riding since 1997 but decided to volunteer for the Bloc candidate this election because I think he's doing a good job. I did some door-to-door work for him last weekend so I wanted to bring an on-the-ground perspective to the discussions.|
With a partner we knocked on doors for 2 1/2 hours in the heart of Verdun. About 40% of those we spoked to were either going to vote Bloc or were seriously considering it. In a lower-income working-class riding like this I think we're seeing strong Bloc support remain even after the sponsorship scandal has cooled off in the minds of voters. The Bloc got almost 19,000 votes in 2004 and 20,000 in 2006 and that level of support has not seemed to evaporate.
My biggest surprise was that the Federalist vote, which used to go mostly straight to the Liberals on the island of Montreal, has become splintered. Federalists seemed utterly uncertain who to vote for. This is likely tied to Stephane Dion's weak leadership, the unknown candidate in the riding and the comparative disorganization of the Quebec Liberal party.
Thierry St-Cyr is very well-organized, and the team is working hard to identify Bloc supporters and get out the vote. Of all parties here they are by far the most well-staffed and active. This cannot be underestimated.
To those who predicted an NDP or a Conservative win, two words: no way. That would take some sort of national ‘miracle’ where all left-leaning voters flock to Layton or soft nationalists flock to Harper, but I think that would have already occurred in the campaign if it was going to. In those 150 minutes, only one person clearly indicated they were voting NDP and another clearly said they were going with the Tories. Not exactly a groundswell of support.
There is a very strong anti-Harper sentiment in the riding, surprisingly so even, and the Bloc stands to win the most from that. If the ADQ still hasn't won any Montreal ridings, I do not see the Tories doing it this time around. The NDP is not well known yet and the Bloc has sewn up a lot of voters who would otherwise sympathize with their positions.
I predict a clear Bloc win here. This race is Thierry's to lose and he's working so hard that it won't happen. Duceppe is running a disciplined and effective campaign, so it'll be clear sailing.
The most interesting thing will be whether the Tories or even the NDP can steal enough votes to from the Liberals and finish second. If so, it could be very interesting for the following election.
| ||08 09 30
|Selon un sondage Segma, le bloquiste Thierry Saint-Cyr détient une mince avance sur son principal adversaire, le libéral Christian Feuillette. Saint-Cyr récolte 33 % contre 28 % pour Feuillette. Le candidat du NPD, Daniel Breton, obtient pour sa part 18 %. Ce sera une lutte serrée jusqu'à la fin, mais je penche pour une très courte victoire du Bloc, le NPD nuisant d'abord aux libéraux.|
| ||08 09 22
|The Bloc's victory, as many say here, will depend on the split of the federalist vote. As it looks right know, based on articles in the papers and reports from the field, liberal candidate Feuillette is having a hard time because he is associiated to Senator Lavigne who is presently going trough trial for criminal acccusations of fraud. The main leaders of the JLB liberals have publicly said that they would prefer to vote CPC rather than for one of Lavigne's protege. If this movement succedes, combined with the hi scoring at the national level of the CPC campain, Beaudin, the conservative candidate in JLB, could inherit substantial vote from the liberals. The federalists in JLB don't really have another choice. NDP is absent in this discussion. Will this be enough to beat the incumbant St-Cyr? The fact that they are not talking about separation any more and that their utility and reason to be have being questioned a lot during this campain will certainly push some of the bloquists to shift with the dippers, which is also helping CPC. Very close call between CPC and Bloc for this one.|
| ||08 09 20
|as with ahuntsic, this one is likely to stay with the bloc on the federalist vote split. candidates matter here only for the amount of press they can bring to their respective campaigns. in this sense, the so-called star (daniel breton, environmentalist) running for the ndp has actually been pretty effective, the nobody conservative has been predictably absent, the generic bloc candidate has had the incumbent's advantage (such as it is) and the liberal candidate has had a somewhat negative result (seriously, nominating a sorbonne-educated french citizen to run in montreal's most working class riding was a stroke of brazenness only a whisker short of folly). all of this contributes to the dynamics at play in the three 2006 bloc ridings (ahuntsic, jeanne-le ber and papineau), which see a rising ndp and cpc imperiling what ought to have breezy liberal victories.|
as i wrote about ahuntsic: it may sound counter-intuitive to predict a bloc win given that the bloc mp is a nobody, the 2006 bloc win was basically based on the protest vote and duceppe's deft anti-liberal campaign (ie. a fluke), that this is a traditionally liberal riding, and that bloc support has dropped significantly quebec-wide. but two important factors should determine the result here: first, liberal support numbers have NOT rebounded on-island - the drop in quebec lpc support is mostly happening off-island, but even on-island, in the two most recent polls i've seen, it's slightly lower than in 2006; second, the ndp and cpc have gained traction on-island with demographics essential to the liberal coalition at a rate greater than their traction among the demographics essential to bloc success. in a nutshell, bloc support has proved much more resilient on-island that off-island, the lpc is not stronger now that it was in 2006, and the support that the bloc will lose to the ndp and cpc ought to be lower than or about equal to that which the lpc will lose to these parties. to put it all a bit more succintly: the liberals have not recovered sufficiently to overcome the federalist vote split that we're going to see here (and in ahuntsic and possibly papineau, though trudeau's star power should be enough to force the contest into a two-way race). unfortunately, this leaves jeanne-le ber with the bloc.
| ||08 09 19
|As incredible as this may sound, according to a number of news reports, the main contenders in this riding are the Bloc, the Conservative and the NDP. You read that right... the Liberal candidate is not one of them.|
The Conservative candidate is described as ‘extremely well-known in the riding’ and the Bloc is even putting signs advising voters that ‘a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives’.
Now I have a lot of difficulty believing that the Liberals would not be the main opposition to the Bloc incumbent in this riding and I'm cynical enough to believe that some people could say and/or report things just to mislead voters and split the vote in favour of... one of the candidates.
Jeanne-Le Ber is a clearly federalist riding and the idea that the Bloc would keep it seems odd, but at the same time, as I have said in some of my comments for other ridings in the province, I expect the Bloc to win many strongly federalist ridings due to vote-splitting, this while expecting the Conservatives to win ridings which are not as federalist, so a Bloc doesn't seem that unlikely here.
I must disagree however with those who say that the Bloc incumbent has an advantage here because he is the incumbent, this is an urban riding and incumbency frankly means nothing at all in this type of riding.
At this point, as far as I'm concerned, this riding is still too close to call.
| ||08 09 17
|There is no reason to predict a result much different from 2006. |
The polling numbers are about the same on the island of Montreal as 2006. The Liberals are running a less-known candidate than in the last election, while the Bloc candidate now has name recognition as the incumbent. The three other parties will likely all do better (each has better candidates and better polling numbers than last time), but there is no reason to think they will steal proportionately more votes from either the Liberals or the Bloc. I predict Bloc by around 5,000 votes.
| ||08 09 14
|this should be a pretty easy bloc win.|
the liberals aren't polling any higher than they were when they lost last time around, and though the bloc is polling lower, the ndp and conservative increases in support will divide the federalist vote sufficiently to make this one a walk for the generic bloc mp. the liberals will definitely get it back next time around, but for now, it's not going to happen. as an aside, it'll be nice for the liberals to have so many winnable ridings primed for a load of stars coming on board when a new leader takes over.
and the ndp...let's get real, breton is barely known, the ndp is weak in this one, the demographics that apply to normal canadian urban ridings emphatically do not apply in montreal, and it's going to be another 2 or 3 election cycles before the ndp gets its claws into anything even remotely resembling jeanne-le ber (and when it does happen, it'll be with a real star).
| ||08 09 14
|I'm hoping for a Liberal win, but I suspect this riding will go Bloc again. The BQ won by a small margin in the last election, but was up against a ‘star’ Liberal candidate cabinet minister, Liza Frulla. This time around the Liberal candidate has just won a costly nomination campaign and is closely connected to Senator Francis Fox, who is not much loved in the riding. The Bloc candidate, on the other hand, has made considerable use of his incumbent status over the past couple of years - distributing information fliers regularly and generally staying in campaign mode. At the same time, the Conservatives are running a stronger candidate this election and this will likely sap strength from the federalist alternative Liberals.|
| ||08 09 14
- BQ : Thierry St-Cyr
- LIB : Christian Feuillette
- CON : Daniel Beaudin
- NPD : Daniel Breton
- PV : Veronik Sansoucy
En fait, selon moi, l'élection de cette année se fera plus sur les candidats locaux que sur les chefs due au peu de popularité de ces derniers. Comme les trois autres candidats sont pour ainsi dire inconnus, la bataille se déroulera surtout entre St-Cyr (BQ) et Breton (NPD) ceux-ci possédant le plus de notoriété. St-Cyr étant l'actuel député et Breton parce qu'il a accompli plusieurs chose sur les scènes environnementale et sociale québécoises depuis plusieurs années.
Bien que très serrés, je crois que c'est Breton (NPD) qui sortira gagnant car la circonscription de JLB n'est pas foncièrement souverainiste et que le NPD à le vent dans les voiles, contrairement au BQ qui est indéniablement en perte de vitesse.
| ||08 09 13
|See the thing is, the Liberals are actually holding their support from 06(at about 20%) or at least they are pretty close. The BQ support is down at least 5-10% according to most polls, which would cause a fair number of seats to fall to the Liberals (there are a bunch that are 1 2 3 thousand vote margins). Seats like Jeanne Le Ber, Papineau, Brossard la Prairie, Ahuntsic and so on. Theyll obviously be pretty close but still probable Liberal pickups.|
| ||08 09 13
|I was looking at Nick J Borgania's math and analysis, and I think the seat will stay BQ.|
Suppose the BQ loses 1/3 of their support. That would bring them down to about 13,000. If NDP doubles support, they'd come up to 9,000.
The question comes down to where the BQ votes go and where the NDP get their votes from. Now it won't be as simple as a one for one, but I expect the NDP might grab a lot of their support from the Liberal. That would pull the Liberal support down to about 12,500 assuming the Liberals don't pick up any of the BQ support.
If the Liberals pick up some of the BQ support, the riding could go Liberal. But at the moment, I'll put my money on the BQ.
| ||08 09 12
||Nick J Boragina|
|Now, on to the Bloc and the NDP. Polls show the NDP possibly getting up to double the vote in Quebec that they did last time, and the Bloc losing as much as a third of their vote. Double the NDP vote here (you get 9K) and cut the bloc vote by a third (down to 13K). As you can see the NDP is just not (as of yet) close enough to make this riding come into play. They'd need a star candidate here, and that's something they do not have.|
| ||08 08 09
|After promising a star candidate in a closed JLB for the past year or so, the Liberals finally decided to open it and have a nomination contest. Has Dion realized that he doesn’t have a great shot at winning back JLB or is it the fear of loosing for those stars that created that change in strategy? Mark Bruneau, the Gritz's party financial VP, is taking a bid in this convention and probably will take it. He wants to develop and bring in new capital investments, bring in new companies, contribute in a stronger economy... yes folks, were talking about a guy who's running in a riding that, as Bear & Ape put it, ‘is comprised of some of the poorest neighbourhoods in the city’, absolutely nothing about this issue in his web-program! If outsider-and-non-star Bruneau (people in JLB, especially St-Henri, reject that idea) wins this convention, it will cost Liberals lots of federalist votes in the next general election. These votes will shift to the CPC who has already started to get support from deceived Liberals, namely Verdun Mayor Trudel and 4 city councillors who have publicly given their support to CPC's Daniel Beaudin, a local candidate. Bloc's St-Cyr will loose a significant amount of voters to star environmentalist, NDP candidate Daniel Breton, we just don't know how much yet. It’s a long road to election day, but I think anything can happen here.|
| ||08 06 02
|Here's a seat that the Liberals could easily win back, if only they could find a decent candidate. If they're quietly wooing someone impressive and they succeed, they'll probably win. If they run a weak candidate, the Bloc will almost certainly hang on. An NDP win here is highly unlikely, though not totally inconceivable. The Liberals would have to run a really, really bad candidate who pushes traditional Liberals to vote NDP.|
| ||08 05 30
|I am sitting in Jeanne-Le-Ber as I write now: friends, 'initial' is really off the mark on his prediction. Harper and the CPC have very little popularity nor credibility in the city of Montreal; perhaps in the suburbs they can pull of some second-place performances, but in an urban, progressive environment such as found in St. Henri, Little Burgandy and the Pointe, the conservatives are completely out of the picture. The conservative party isn't going to waste any money in this riding -it's out of play.|
True, it will be a great three-way race, but it will be between fairly well-liked bloquiste St. Cyr, the star eco-candidate Breton for the Dippers and the habitually voted-for liberals. The Tories will finish a distant fourth, make no mistake about it.
| ||08 02 27
||King of Kensington|
|Don't be ridiculous. This riding is about as likely to vote Conservative as Toronto-Danforth, Davenport or Vancouver East. The beneficiaries of discontent with the Liberals and the Bloc here would be the NDP. This will be one to watch, but the only certainty is that the Conservatives will fall below deposit level!|
| ||08 02 28
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Well it looks like Jeanne-Le Ber is starting to become the Windsor-Tecumseh of the 2008 Electionprediction-go-round (and originally we thought it was going to be Etobicoke Centre, but it's been all quiet there for some time now). So ‘the Liberals are going down’ in Jeanne-Le Ber? Here's a news flash, they already have...in 2006. The BQ is the incumbent party. Here's another news flash: this is a very WORKING CLASS riding (even more so than Windsor-Tecumseh, and we all know how that turned out), which means, for those who are new to this election predicting thing we do here, will tend to vote for the political left (read: Liberal, NDP or BQ). Here's yet another news flash: the CPC is at 20% in Quebec compared to the 25% they had last election. With numbers like that, they are going to have a hard time keeping ridings like Louis-Hebert (in the recent Conservative/ADQ bastion of Quebec City), let alone pick up a riding where they got a measly 11.8% in 2006! A strong NDP candidate will cut into the BQ vote (and the Liberal vote as well), potentially making it a three-way race. But the contenders will be the BQ, Libs and NDP. NOT the CPC. Frankly we don't think the NDP have enough support to win this riding, just enough to make it interesting and give them hope for a subsequent election. We do concede that the NDP has a chance to pull off another Outremont-like win, but only time will tell. Until then anyone with an iota of common sense will realise that a CPC prediction here is tantamount to lunacy!|
| ||08 02 23
|Anybody who lives in JLB (or has set foot) knows that the liberals are going down because they have nothing else to offer than their actual leader, who is no match for Harper, and Senator Raymond Lavigne who was an MP for 10 years before Frulla and who lost because of sponsorship. If Breton does run in JLB, he will only cut into the Bloc’s vote and get left wing voters that can’t stand Duceppe anymore. This will help CPC. We’re looking at a tight 3 way race; Bloc./ Lib./ CPC. The stronger NDP gets, the higher CPC’s chances to win this.|
| ||08 02 22
|If Breton runs here, the NDP will put on a big show, don't make any mistake about it. Breton would be a star candidate (he headed the Quebec-Kyoto organization and co-organized the first anti-war-in-Iraq protests in Montreal).|
Consider: St-Cyr got elected due to the sponsorship scandal; he isn't well-known and he isn't particularly popular; most people living here probably couldn't even identify him as their MP -he's got a battle on his hands no matter what.
I've lived in this riding for many years, the tories ain't got a snowball's chance in hell; and the grits might be able to take the riding back, if the stars align; but people dig the NDP here, if given an opportunity to elect one, they just might go ahead and do it.
JLB is certainly one to watch for the pundits.
| ||08 02 16
|With Daniel Breton now the N.D.P. candidate in this riding, three- or four-way races are going to introduce a whole new dynamic in certain ridings in Montreal, given Jack Layton's continued positive polling results.|
| ||08 02 15
|Indeed (and esp. if we take into account reports that the NDP also have a star candidate of sorts in the making), this might be one of the more likely *fourth* place CPC finishes in Quebec--for them to win would involve a wholesale resurrection of Mulroney's grand coalition, which might as well also involve St-Cyr and the Bloc dissolving dissolving themselves on behalf of the Tories, or else the Grits plunging to catastrophic single-digit levels. Heck, given the whole Asper/National Post thang, *Mount Royal* might be a more likely Tory pickup than JLB at this point...|
| ||08 01 27
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|CPC win in Jeanne-Le Ber? GIVE US A BREAK! Have you ever set foot in this riding? It's comprised of some of the poorest neighbourhoods in the city. People here will start voting Conservative when the CPC starts becoming competetive in ridings like Vancouver East or Winnipeg North Center. Brison was right on the money to neglect the CPC from his equation.|
| ||08 01 12
|You miss something important Binriso, I didn’t see CPC in your equation. People are starting to think that Stephen Harper is the most popular leader for the next election, at least in Quebec. It doesn’t mean they are going to win every Montreal ridding, lucky if they get 2 or 3, but the stage changed here since the 2006 election. As for Jeanne-Le Ber, the CPC has a strong candidate, Daniel Beaudin. He is local, well known and hungry; he got heavy support from many Liberals at his nomination contest and won it strongly. Bloc’s St-Cyr was lucky to win in 2006 because of the sponsorship scandals, Senator Lavigne seems like he wants to make a comeback for the Liberals as an MP, and that folks, is good news for all other parties. It’s going to be a real tight race between the BQ, Liberal ant CPC but I think Beaudin should win it|
| ||07 10 04
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Just a thought...inner city, working class, old factories becoming expensive trendy condos for bohemian types, gentrification along the Lachine canal amongst other areas...could this be a riding targeted by a newly invigourated NDP? That is, of course, the NDP's current stint in Quebec is more than a flash in the pan.|
| ||07 06 06
|Liberals Up, Bloc way down= Jeanne-Le Ber back to the Liberal fold. The Liberals may not increase their vote % that much in Quebec but they will likely have a large increase in Montreal Laval with little increase in rural Quebec to make it seem like they are not gaining very much when they could gain back several Montreal-laval ridings.|
| ||07 04 09
|This area of Montreal is fairly francophone, with some nationalist sentiments around Verdun, but it's a poor fit for the Bloc, overall, due to a large allophone community around Pointe-St-Charles. The left-leaning tendancies of working-class places like Little Burgundy and Saint Henri make it a great place for the NDP to breakthrough into Quebec, once the Bloc are dead and gone. For now, though, St-Cyr is set to lose this riding back to the Liberals.|
| ||07 04 08
|I wouldn't call this quite yet. Although I think the Liberals have a good chance at re-taking this, Quebec is quite volatile politically. The main thing is how the Tories will do and who will they steal the most from. They have zero chance at winning this, but even with as little as 10% of the popular vote, they could play the role of spoiler much as Ralph Nader in 2000 with only 4% did in the US.|
| ||07 04 03
| This one is coming back to the Liberals, as much as Mr. St-Cyr may be a good MP, he won this because of the bottoming of the sponsorship scandal here last time.|
| ||07 04 03
|This is a place where provincial liberals saw the ADQ eat at their majority a bit. Still, this will go back liberal|
| ||07 03 27
||Dr Bear & Prof Ape|
|Another riding that was lost more to the sponsorship scandal rather than any actual true BQ support. Though more inclined to stay BQ than some of the other Montreal ridings the Liberals lost due to similar reasons (example: Ahunsic, Papineau, Brossard), any pull that the CPC may have with Francophone voters will help the Liberals (who will keep the bulk of the non-Francophone vote).|