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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Blackburn, Jean-Pierre
Bloc Québécois
Bouchard, Chantale
Dupéré, Marc
New Democratic
Paradis, Jean-François

L'hon. Jean-Pierre Blackburn

2006 Résultats:
Jean-Pierre Blackburn
Sébastien Gagnon **
Martin Bertrand
Gilles Savard
Sylvain Dompierre

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
Sondage Segma mené du 4 au 8 octobre (marge d'erreur: 4,4%):
BQ 53%
PCC 40%
LIB 4%
Un deuxième sondage qui donne le ministre Blackburn en difficulté dans son comté. On va finir par le croire !
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
With a poll in the riding showing Blackburn trailing and with Democratic Space projecting this as a BQ win, this could be the riding in Quebec Stephen Harper loses on election night. I can't predict for sure at this point, but we'll have to tune in and see!
08 10 05 Paul
Something I noticed here: Every single english submission says the riding will go Conservative. Fact is, Jonquiere-Alma and the entire Saguenay-Lac St. Jean region is extremely francophone. Give the Bloc more credence; this is the birthplace of separatism. The only reason they'd lose votes is because people don't think they're separatist *enough*. I think the Bloc will take it by a tiny margin, just because of the power of incumbency.
08 10 01 R.O.
Bloc wishful thinking aside Jean Pierre Blackburn has every advantage here. he is a high profile mp and cabinet minister and delivered significant results to this region of quebec from the federal government. In the last election he also managed to beat a well known bloc mp by a comfortable margin although liberal support did collapse.
08 09 29 binriso
Uh Oh!!! JP Blackburn is in *potential trouble* here. And he sure wont be able to rely on a Liberals endorsement this time either. CPC will probably pull through regardless, but itll be closer.
08 09 29 PG13
The latest public opinion polls done by Gesca has Blackburn in difficulty. The Bloc is ahead here due to some unpopular decisions Mr.Blackburn made during his tenor.
08 09 29
Le sondage mené pour la Presse dans ce compté donne 50.4% au Bloc et 38.8% aux conservateurs. Le Bloc devrait reprendre ce compté.
08 09 29 Stéphane Gaudet
Jean-Pierre Blackburn serait en difficulté selon le sondage Segma, il ne recueillerait que 38% des appuis contre sa jeune adversaire bloquiste qui, elle, dominerait largement avec 50% des intentions de vote. Vraiment surprenant. Serait-ce que le ministre du Développement régional a déçu dans sa gestion du financement ? Je ne donnerai pas la circonscription au Bloc pour autant sur la base de ce seul sondage, mais il conviendrait certainement de le mettre dans la colonne too close to call. Je croyais que les conservateurs allaient gagner des sièges au Québec, plusieurs même, pas en perdre !
08 09 29 J.F. Breton
Ça sent le chauffé pour Blackburn! Il fallait bien s'y attendre... après la série de décisions controversées comme ministre, souvent à l'encontre des intérêts du Québec. Sondage LeQuotidien - Groupe Gesca, du 23 au 27 septembre, marge d'erreur de 4,9%, 19 fois sur 20.
Chantale Bouchard, BQ 50,4%
Jean-Pierre Blackburn, PCC 38,8%
Marc Dupéré, PLC 7,2%
Jean-François Paradis, NPD 3,5%
Je crois qu'il faut à tout le moins faire basculer ce comté dans le TCTC, ou bien carrément du côté Bloquiste.
08 03 12 A.S.
It was worth a little mirth and bemusement to learn that washed-up Mulroneyite J-P Blackburn was gunning for his old seat back--and oh lordy, talk about last laugh, he did it. And enhancing the gravity of it all is the fact that it happened in what once was, in part, Lucien Bouchard's Lac-Saint-Jean base--and now, with the Roberval byelection, virtually all that matters of Bouchard's turf is currently held by CPC! Holy cow. The Bloc might hope it's their best chance for a takeback from the Tories, or at least their best result in a Tory riding--though I'm more likely to suspect continued demoralization on their part. At best, perhaps, the LSJ area is now for the Bloc what Windsor is for the Liberals: in light of federal losses, all the attention is henceforth focussed provincially...
07 06 07 binriso
Well Blackburn certainly came out of nowhere to win this riding last time, a little blue island in the BQ dominated North. Although helped by Savard and the Liberals he probably couldve won a small victory anyways. While its by no means a certainty, this riding will most likely go back CPC, hopefully along with Chicoutimi next door and perhaps a few others from the BQ.
07 04 14 Nick J Boragina
While I feel the tories will win here, it's not because they won last time. This was the worst Liberal riding in the country, they finished behind the NDP here and did not even win thier deposit. Why? because the Liberal candidate here told his voters to vote for the tories. That, in my view, accounts for at least 2/3rds of what the Liberals won in the 04 election, or in this case, 10,000 votes. Even if we assume it was only 8,000 votes, that is enough to see the tories lose here. It's not rock solid a bit. Why do I think they'll still win? Simple, the bloc is far down in the polls, and even if they recover, the momentum is with the incumbent. Dont count this one out as a loss, however, should the winds change direction.
07 04 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Yes this region is a bastion of Quebec separatism. Yes in the provincial election the PQ retook this riding, but it wasn't certain that the Liberals would form the government and the voters went back to their ‘default party’ (the PQ in this case). The CPC doesn't appear ready to fall anytime soon. The voters here will keep their cabinet minister in office, as with him, the riding gets goodies. With yet another BQ member, the best they could hope for is some guy who will one day decide to stand up, pick up his chair, walk out of the House of Commons with it, and bring it home to his riding, befuddling everyone in the House (including his own party) and providing the media some entertaining fodder. Too bad that guy isn't running again.
07 04 03 P.P.
At the provincial level, this riding reverted back to the P.Q. With the exception of Maxime Bernier, i fell every conservative MNA are vulnerable. Having beaten the P.Q. and with no referendum coming, Quebecers may decide to send back the Bloc in force in Ottawa
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
Jean-Pierre Blackburn, having handled a cabinet post will almost certainly be returned to his seat.

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