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élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Caron, Sébastien
Bloc Québécois
Duceppe, Gilles
Gourd, François Yo
New Democratic
Grégoire, François
Lachapelle, Serge
Laforest, Daniel 'F4J'
Langford, Charles K.
Pagé-Quirion, Samie
Perceval-Maxwell, Dylan

Gilles Duceppe

2006 Résultats:
Gilles Duceppe **
François Grégoire
Soeung Tang
Dylan Perceval-Maxwell
Carlos De Sousa
Nicky Tanguay
Jocelyne Leduc
Ginette Boutet
Evelyn Elizabeth Ruiz

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 09 20 david m.
definitely, duceppe will win this one without even campaigning. but listen up, come 2009 when duceppe retires, this riding will instantly become the most ndp-friendly riding in all of quebec. put plainly: it doesn't seem like many people commenting here know too much about this riding. this riding isn't necessarily or even really separatist, it's just very very left-wing. provincially, quebec solidaire scored their best results in quebec here (almost taking out former pq minister daniel turp in one riding and doing very well in the other). richard bergeron (head of the only left wing city party, called 'projet montreal') took his party's only seat here, and the party almost scored another win in another civic seat that falls within the boundaries of laurier-sainte marie. it's the youngest riding in all of quebec; the population is about 1/4 anglophone. federally, when mulcair won in outremont, his best polls, i'm talking the ones he won with soviet-style majorities, were directly adjacent to laurier-sainte marie, abutting them. demographically (and culturally and attitudinally), laurier-sainte marie is almost entirely composed of the sort of neighborhoods in the outremont riding in which mulcair did the best. so yeah, depending on their macro fortunes, the ndp is definitely a contender here once duceppe retires; and if the current environment stands, i'd even go so far as to suggest that in the context of a 2009 by-election, with a known candidate, the ndp would have a hard time losing this one.
08 09 16 segacs
Gilles Duceppe's riding. 'Nuff said.
08 06 02 T.V.
The NDP have no chance in this riding. While the demographics may be superficially similar to Outremont, they're actually very different. Outremont is left leaning but generally federalist, and the high Bloc vote there in '04 and '06 was a protest against Jean Lapierre and the Liberals. In Laurier, the voters are also left leaning, but firmly sovereignist. There is no way they would vote for anyting but the Bloc.
08 02 11 A.S.
Boy, that second place must have been heartening to Jack Layton; together with Duceppe's own political roots, it's tempting to conclude that anywhere else, a seat like this would be up in the Libby Davies NDP stratosphere or something. (At the other extreme, this seat saw a curious flurry of CPC predictions two EPPs ago...and it all led to something like the worst Conservative result in the *country*.)
07 09 21 binriso
With the by-election expect an increase in NDP support, maybe upwards to 25%. Bloc still win though and Duceppe will get about 55%.
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
If Duceppe resigns, then this riding might go NDP. However there are no signs he’s even thinking about it at this point. So long as Duceppe is the Bloc candidate, leader or not, he will keep winning this riding. Remember, Duceppe is a former communist. This might be the most left-wing riding in the country, but with arguably the most left-wing MP in the country representing it at this time, the NDP will find it hard to do anything but increase their margin over third. Maybe in a few years I’ll be back here predicting the NDP will take this riding from some novice BQ candidate, but in the next election, they don’t stand a chance. Mulcair changes the dynamic here a bit, before him, this riding would have elected that rookie BQ candidate.
07 07 14 binriso
Surprisingly, the Liberals won this riding in 1988 by like 4000 votes ~10-15% or so. Not that it matters now Laurier will be going BQ in the next couple elections at least, almost no matter what happens short of Duceppe resigning, which could open it up for a possible although not a very probable NDP or Liberal win. CPC wont ever touch this, seeing how they finished behind the Greens last time and couldnt win it with Mulroney as PM. In fact the PC/CPC have finished 5th or lower the last 3 elections Canadian Alliance in 2000 finished 7th(!). A 3rd place for the CPC would be an accomplishment here. Anyways its a safe BQ hold as long as Duceppe is here and probably even after he retires, unless a chain of major events occur which destroys the BQ. We can always
07 06 04 R.D.
Well, Duceppe's fifteen minute campaign for the PQ leadership wasn't exactly the highlight of his career, but it won't cost him his job at the helm of the BQ and it certainly won't cost him this seat. I expect the NDP to build on its strong second place in the last election, but a ?victory? now will be simply to hold the Bloc vote under 50%. Things are changing elsewhere in Quebec, though...
07 05 07 R.D.
A recent CROP poll shows the BQ has fallen to record low support in Quebec, 28%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 26%, the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 15%. While still in fourth, the NDP has shown the most gain of any of the four federalist parties, doubling its vote from the 2006 election.
Laurier--Sainte-Marie appears in all respects to be a solid BQ seat. But if it was to go to any other party, the NDP was in fact the runner up here last time as well as the natural second choice for working class urban BQ swing voters, if they are in fact abandoning the separatist cause. I doubt BQ leader Gilles Duceppe would ever find himself in danger of losing the seat. But it is looking more and more like he may be leaving Parliament within the next few months to contest the provincial PQ leadership, and if that happens, all bets are off.
07 04 12 Brian Appel
Quebec Solidaire didn't get the big vote in the last provincial - Amir Khadir did. If they'd run a nobody in Mercier, then the QS would have been in last place, or close to it. Anyway, Laurier-Sainte Marie is a very francophone riding that is the home of the Plateau and the Montreal Gay Village - lots of students, artists and other progressives who pound the sovereignty drum on principle. Duceppe is extremely well-respected here and not many would vote against him. If Duceppe were gone, the Bloc would nominate another left-wing activist who'd easily win here. And if the Bloc were gone, given the political climate in Quebec nowadays, it would go NDP. Easy, easy Bloc hold.
07 04 03 P.P.
Although this is a sure win for the Bloc, the NDP should be trying to get a strong candidate. In the Mercier riding (which covers a lot of this riding), Quebec Solidaire finished a close second to the P.Q.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Gilles Duceppe or no Gilles Duceppe, this is a very safe BQ riding and it will go BQ no matter what. Even if Gilles Duceppe does go provincial, it won't affect this riding, although it could hurt the BQ elsewhere since he is still reasonably popular compared to any other prospective separatist leader.
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
Gilles Duceppe's seat. If he runs, no more needs to be said. Even if he doesn't this riding leans left and nationalist.
07 03 25 G. Kennedy (not that one)
The very fact that the NDP was able to run second last time is indication of what a stranglehold Duceppe has on this seat.

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