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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bélisle, Jean-Pierre
Breton, Yvon
Bloc Québécois
Demers, Nicole
New Democratic
Giguère, Alain
Haddad, Alia
Madelein, Eric

Nicole Demers

2006 Résultats:
Nicole Demers **
Alia Haddad
Emilio Migliozzi
Benoît Beauchamp
Philippe Mari

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 02 16 A.S.
I don't know about within the present boundaries, but in the predecessor riding of Laval Centre in 1997, BQ was nearly 2500 votes above Liberal and nearly 10000 votes above PC. (Though provincially in 2007, perhaps, it was 3-way + 12-vote margin territory.) Right now, it's the kind of seat that'd be generically vulnerable if the Bloc halved its seat total--on whose half, it'll depend on how the cards fall...
08 02 15 binriso
From what I’ve found, this riding only existed since 2003 in its current boundaries. Its a merging of Laval Center and Laval West. Laval West was won in 1993 by the Liberals and won again by landslides in 1997 and 2000 by the Liberals. Laval Center was a BQ landslide in 1993, but then close in 1997 (~2500 votes with the PCs about 9000 back) and very close in 2000 (42 votes) both times BQ over Liberal. Its about 3/4 part of Laval Center and 1/4 Laval West. Itd be competitive and likely a Liberal win, if the Liberals were at 25-30% in Quebec and the BQ vote was around the same % as the Liberals, but I dont think thats going to happen and the CPC are too far back, not to mention its Montreal-Laval.
08 01 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Hey Binriso, donèt be so sure about a sure fire BQ win. In 1997 this riding was recounted with a three way split between the BQ, Libs and PC. The BQ won with 14 votes (as we recall). There are many realistic scenerios which could lead to someone other than the BQ winning, though we will concede that the BQ do have the current edge.
07 12 11 binriso
Ok I have to say there is just not a chance for any federalist party to win here. The vote is too split up and the BQ will always get there ~40-45%, giving them a solid win. The CPC are way too weak and the Liberals wont grow enough to win. The NDP might gain but very marginally and the Greens dont have a chance in any seat in Quebec. Could be an interesting race for 2nd but a distant 2nd by a big margin, 10% if not more.
07 06 13 binriso
Apparently Muclair might run here for the NDP. This could prove interesting and if the BQ vote declined enough we could see him win in a 4 way splitting. Although that would be quite difficult. BQ vote will definitely decline but ill give them the advantage but TCTC for now.
07 04 13 J.F. Breton
La circonscription de Laval est en plein coeur de l'Ile-Jésus. Difficile de dire qui l'emportera. Je ne miserais pas sur une victoire du Bloc, tant et aussi longtemps que nous ne connaîtrons pas les candidats libéraux et conservateurs. Too close to call.

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