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3:10 PM 12/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Charest, Nancy
New Democratic
Demers, Julie
Drainville, Louis
Landry, Jérôme
Potvin, Liliane
Bloc Québécois
Roy, Jean-Yves

Jean-Yves Roy

2006 Résultats:
Jean-Yves Roy **
Rodrigue Drapeau
Kim Leclerc
Stéphane Ricard
Sarah Desjardins
Yvan Côté

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 12 binriso
This certainly isnt TCTC on the Conservatives behalf, and it might be really close, but due to the fact the BQ are polling so highly provincewide, the trend should put them over the top, not to mention the Liberals faired poorly here last time so they probably should win. Then again though, the Liberals could pick this up by surprise, local polling is very good for them, they have a star candidate and probably the one with the most name recognition(maybe). And a possible federalist rally around this candidate.
08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
Le sondage auquel vous faites tous allusion ne portait que sur la partie ‘Haute-Gaspésie’ du comté. Seulement 75 personnes avaient été interviewées, avec une marge d'erreur de 12% !!!
Ça ne vaut pas grand chose un tel sondage, surtout quand on pense que Matane, la Matapédia et la Mitis (qui sont les parties les plus peuplées du comté) en ont été exclues.
Victoire bloquiste ici comme dans le reste du Québec francophone. Les libéraux feront certes quelques gains au Québec, mais ce sera davantage dans la région de Montréal (Papineau, Ahuntsic, Brossard peut-être). Pas dans le Bas-St-Laurent-Gaspésie qui demeure bloquiste et souverainiste, comme l'Est du Québec en général.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
According to a riding poll, Nancy Charest of the Liberals has 40%, and Yves Roy of the BQ has 29%. We'll have to see how reliable the poll is on Election Night since this is not a riding the Liberals are expected to win coming into this election. It's hard to know what's going on here.
08 10 03 FH
Did you guys see the new Segma marketing poll reported on RDI? Nancy Charest is way ahead of the bloc and conservatives in this riding. I suspect she has a really good chance of winning after Dion's performance in the French debate and because she used to be a PLQ MPP before being defeated in 2007.
08 09 29 Janey C
TCTC I was just in this riding today and while I saw enough Cons signs on the NB side of the border, I saw hardly any here. (and admittedly in Madawaska Rstigouche, there were only Liberal lawn signs, none for the other parties but the Cons at least have the big billboard ones and a presence. The Liberal HQ looked to b much busier and livelier though.)
Here, the Cons will have to start doing some organizing in a hurry if they hope to win. LOTS of BLOC signs and people willing to say that is how they will vote. There s a large First Nation here too - one of the largest in Quebec and if they vote at all, it won't be for the Conservatives. Liberal or NDP. Darryl Grey did win this riding (though not quite with the same boundaries) and he has to know the demographics have changed just a bit and the riding is more, not less pro Bloc and PQ. Like every riding, it depends on the community and some are more pro nationalist ideas than others.
I think like its NB neighbour, the riding is too close. Also - they do not live in the same time zone. Only the First Nations uses the Atlantic time zone.
08 09 15 St?phane Gaudet
Si les conservateurs devaient remporter un si?ge ? l'est de Rivi?re-du-Loup, ce sera celui-l?. Lutte tr?s serr?e ? pr?voir, trop t?t pour pr?dire quoi que ce soit.
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
The Conservatives did quite well here in 2006 and on this basis alone I would normally expect them to win.
However the Liberals have nominated Nancy Charest (former Liberal MNA for Matane) as their candidate and the 2007 provincial results have demonstrated, despite her defeat, that she is highly popular in the area. In an election where her party lost almost 13 points, she only lost one or two points.
This will result in big-time vote-splitting that will allow the Bloc to keep this seat.
08 02 20 A.S.
Maybe it's a matter of ‘edge condition’ or proximity to New Brunswick, but CPC did quite impressively in the seats labelled Gaspé, more so than the ADQ provincially--shades of Saguenay? HGLMMM's the lesser of the two and didn't get the election-night profile because none of it was in the Atlantic time zone--yet the Tories still quietly scored nearly 30% here. If Harper's on track t/w doubling his Quebec seat total, look to seats like this to, if not fall, at least become sleeper close calls...
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
It was after reading the comments of bear and ape in this riding that I decided to do some math. I thought they were crazy to put this riding TCTC. Bloc win, I thought. Well, now that I’ve done the math, I’ve swung the other way. I’m going to go out on a limb and declare this a CPC win. Here’s why.
Unless something changes between now and the election – and it could, I’m going to have to place this one in the Conservative column based on Math. I had quite a row with other predictors in the last federal election, when I predicted 10 Tories from Quebec, based on math. They said I was crazy, but on Election day, I was smack on the money. Now I’m calling ridings like this one for the Tories due to the same mathematical equations I used last time. Remember that this is a ‘rural’ riding, and the ADQ recently did very well here. Even with a slight swing from the Bloc to the Tories (in all three recent by-elections the Tories numbers with relation to the Bloc numbers were far up). The math tells me that based on swing forecasting, it would take a 10 point gap (the by-election gap was 4.6) in St.Hyacinthe to make this riding a toss up.
07 04 11 P.P.
Cette région est non seulement resté fidèle au P.Q. mais celui-ci a récupéré Matane. Le Bloc conservera ce comté sans problème
07 04 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
In 2000 (if we are not mistaken) the Liberals came within recount distance of taking this riding. In the prior election the looked very much like the CPC does now. A decent surge by the CPC or afterglow from the ADQ victory and watch this on flip to the conservatives. Watch and see folks!
07 04 02 Daniel
If the Conservatives make gains in Quebec, this riding could be one of their prime targets. The Bloc has traditionally done well here, but from the way the poll numbers look, the Bloc could be in trouble in ridings like this all over Quebec, with the Conservatives being the main beneficiaries.

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