La prévision a changé
11:03 AM 28/03/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

Mount Royal
élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Alexander, Tyrell
Artuso, Antonio
Cotler, Irwin
Johnston, Diane
Bloc Québécois
Lavallée, Maryse
New Democratic
Thibodeau, Nicolas
Tzoubari, Rafael

L'hon. Irwin Cotler

2006 Résultats:
Irwin Cotler **
Neil Martin Drabkin
Nicolas R. Thibodeau
Guillaume Dussault
Damien Pichereau
Diane Johnston

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

08 09 25 Y Trudel
One of the safest place for Liberals in the country. Here, the saying still stands: ‘Put a red shirt on a monkey and the Liberals will win it’
07 10 13 King of Kensington
I think Mount Royal has a very strong claim to being the strongest Liberal riding in Canada. Cotler got 81% in 2000 and 76% in 2004 which was the best showing for the Liberals in terms of percentage of the popular vote; in 2006 Cotler got 66% which was the second highest (and that was a very bad year for the Liberals in Quebec).
Rouge River and York West are certainly right up there in the top three but the interesting thing is these ridings are nothing like Mount Royal. The closest equivalent in Toronto would be Eglinton-Lawrence, another very safe Liberal riding though not quite as much (but enough for Mike Colle to win!)
This will be another cruise to victory for Cotler even with their problems in Quebec. Given that the Tory vote actually went down in the Outremont byelection, I don't see Harper's Israel policy winning over Jewish voters. We'll likely see the NDP vote go past 10% and the Green vote up as well, but Cotler will definitely take this again by a very, very wide margin.
07 10 07 Brian Appel
Well, Nick, I would sort of agree with you, but disagree as well. For instance, as far as Toronto ridings go, York West is a pretty darn safe Liberal riding too, as is Scarborough-Rouge River. And, despite how close it's been, you can't deny the fact that Hull-Aylmer has only been non-Liberal once in the last 50+ years, and it was only because the Liberal MP crossed the floor. And even then, he got his hat handed to him in the following election when he was beaten by the Liberal candidate. Still, Mount Royal's status as a riding unwinnable by any non-Liberal was stated by politicians and pundits as far back as 40 years ago. However, regardless of whether it's more legend or more fact, I'd be willing to state that, should the Liberals ever suffer a defeat where they are reduced to 2 seats ala PC circa 1993, Mount Royal will be 100% one of those two seats that they hold.
07 09 20 Nick J Boragina
Mount Royal being number-one rock-solid Liberal is actually more of mythology then it is reality, there are other ridings, at other times, that have been far more solid, and less susceptible to a swing. That being said, Mount Royal has been within the top dozen consistently, and I don’t see any reason for that to change. I find it interesting to note that the Bloc finished not just behind the victorious Liberals, and second place Conservatives, but also behind the NDP, which managed a weak third in this riding. I doubt the Bloc would ever win this riding, even if they polled at above 65% within the province.
07 07 14 binriso
Clearly Cotler will win again and probably by a slightly increased margin, although I do believe that there is a CPC base (like 12-15%) that will stick with them as long as Harper remains popular and remains leader. However I doubt the CPC will crack 20% here next election and if they do it will be barely over 20%. Cotler will probably get like 70% or more next time and win easy.
07 04 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Cotler is no fool, nor is he delusional or self-righteous. He knew very well when he was nominated back in the mid-90's that he was inheriting the safest Liberal seat in Canada. You can be certain he does not think he made it so. None the less, in that by-election he did win with about 92% of the vote (now THAT is a ‘North Korea margin’ of victory). This IS the safest Liberal seat around.
07 04 11 Stevo
The only way anyone other than a Liberal could win this seat is if the Liberal Party of Canada ceased to exist (we should be so lucky...). And even then, Mount Royal voters might panic and simply write in ‘Liberal Party’ on their ballots. I wonder if it irks Irwin Cotler to be told time and again that he represents the safest Liberal seat in the country, or if it flatters him, believing that it is he himself who made it so safe over the past couple decades.
07 04 10 Efrem
Wondering just quite how huge Cotler's victory will be here is more interesting than predicting a winner; last time round he ran about 45pts above the Quebec Liberal average, while the last time the federal Liberals have been even slightly under threat in Mount Royal was in 1984; and even then they won by (just) over four thousand votes.
07 04 03 Brian Appel
This riding is, bar none, the safest Liberal seat in Canada, and has been for decades. I mean, the last election where it was won by a non-Liberal candidate was the election of 1935. And if that wasn't enough, Irwin Cotler is extremely popular with the large Jewish population that live here. After 67 years of Liberal control, I really don't see it going anywhere else. I wouldn't be surprised if this seat remains Liberal for another 67 years, actually.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This has gone Liberal since 1935 and always by huge margins so even if they only won 2 seats in Canada, this would likely be one of them. Cotler or no Cotler, Liberlas in a landslide.
07 04 01 A.S.
If there's any parallel with the provincial election (and if there's none of this Jewish-vote-going-Tory balderdash), who knows: we might see the Green Party in second place in Mount Royal--of course, it'd be a ‘Wild Rose’ type of second place...
07 03 29 St. Paul's Progressive
This is the safest Liberal seat in Canada and Irwin Cotler is respected and extremely popular. There is a large Jewish popular here that is very liberal and will not be supporting Harper even if he is pro-Israel.
07 03 29 Peter
Local Tories think they had a chance a few months ago. They tried to attract a star candidate hoping to pick-off this Liberal stronghold.
No stars came forward and the Tories have nominated an unknown and inexperienced newcomer to politics.
Irwin Cotler or his successor will be able to hold this riding for the Liberal Party no matter what happens in the rest of the country.
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
Whether Mr. Cotler runs again or not is moot. Mont-Royal is possibly THE safest Liberal seat in Canada. Chalk this one up for the Liberals.
07 03 26 RZ
Irwin Cotler will once again win handily, although with a possibly reduced majority. This is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country, and Harper's strong pro-Israel stance is not enough to change that.
07 03 24 Stephen
Here is a seat that will remain Liberal even if the Liberals are reduced to 25 seats across the country.
Even if Irwin Cotler retires, the large immigrant community of Cote des Nieges detests Stephen Harper and the Conservatives.
While the Jewish Community may divide between Liberals and Conservatives this time, Harper's income trusts reversal and his flip=flop on capital gains has hurt him in Cote St. Luc. Not to mention ending the Court Challenges Program which was so important to English Quebecers in defending their minority rights. Harper took away this vital program for minorities and Mount Royal is a riding filled with minorities.
Throw in Harper's anti-gun control stance in a community that felt the pain of the Dawson shootings and you have a riding that will not turn blue.
If Cotler stays, Liberals win by 15,000 votes, if Cotler retires, Liberal win by 10,000 votes.

Soumettez l'information ici

Actualité provinciale
2006 - élection générale
Projet D'Élection Prévision -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster