|08 10 12
|I'm not sure what Paul Tremblay means when he talks about the ‘Liberal ballot box bonus’. He has posted the same thing on several ridings. Does he mean that there is going to be vote fraud in some of these ridings? I think he should explain what he means. One reason why Liberal support is sometimes higher on election day is because not everyone who is going to vote Liberal admits it to pollsters and so turnout is higher than expected.
As for this riding, I think Trudeau's name has made a difference here and there have been a number of articles that have said this. I also think he may win by more than just a small margin, but we'll have to see.
|08 10 12
|One interesting issue in this riding is where the Conservative vote goes. In a riding with no hopes of winning whatsoever and a weak candidate, one may assume many Conservatives may vote for someone else. Lots of people talk of strategic voting on the left in many ridings, but I suggest many Conservatives would vote strategically here, and it may decide the election in this narrow race. Usually, this vote would be split between the Liberals and the Bloc. But a strong prejudice against (another) Trudeau, combined with a prospect, however remote, of a Liberal minority government, is likely to sway this vote overwhelmingly to the Bloc here in order to stop Liberals from gaining an extra seat. In most Liberal ridings in Montreal this may not matter a lot, but in a close race like this (and with a Trudeau name on the ballot!) it may be the only riding where CONSERVATIVE strategic vote matters. After all, Conservative supporters understand the Bloc cannot form the next government, but the Liberals pose a danger after their recent (fairly moderate) rise in support with the stock market decline. Maybe, this also will have some modest impact in Ahuntsic, but Bakopanos is not Trudeau, and family names do matter. Another factor that makes me doubt the polls for this riding (aside from huge margins of error for such a poll), is the French debate performance by Duceppe. I do not understand how one can claim Dion did well in French debate, this is contrary to all available data. Of course, Duceppe attacked the Conservatives most of the time as the Cons are Bloc's major rivals, but one must be a VERY strong Liberal to claim Dion did remotely well in the debate. If the riding falls to the Liberals after all, it will in spite of the Liberal leader's performance. Contrary for Duceppe. It will be close (and that's what makes it interesting to comment), but I predict a narrow Bloc win.
|08 10 10
|Province-wide polls suggest that the Bloc has a strong lead, but the Liberals appear to be gaining votes in Quebec. I expect that the (in)famous Liberal ‘ballot box bonus’ will ensure a narrow Trudeau victory.
Regarding the Liberal candidate's family name, I believe that it is totally irrelevant and will not change a single vote in the riding. People who might be impressed by this are people who would have voted Liberal anyway. Voters who always hated Pierre Trudeau already vote for the Bloc anyway, unless they're federalists, in which case they already vote Conservative... anyway.
|08 10 08
|Trudeau seems to have a number of small advantages coming into Election Day:
1. A riding poll (mentioned below) showed him ahead by several points.
2. The statistical projection on Democratic Space has him with a narrow lead.
3. Quebec political analysts Jean Lapierre and Antonia Maioni said on CTV's Question Period this week that Trudeau can win as long as he gets his vote out.
The only potential downside for Trudeau is that due to Stephen Harper's declining numbers in Quebec because of the ?arts? controversy, Bloc numbers have gone up. However, Liberal numbers have also gone up since Dion won the French debate and show the Liberals now in 2nd place. This could balance out the rise in BQ support.
Trudeau was out on the campaign trail with Dion yesterday in other parts of Canada, so perhaps that means he is confident enough of winning his riding that he feels he can spend a day outside of it.
Therefore, unless there is a major change in the closing days this week, I think Trudeau goes into Election Night with a small advantage over Vivian Barbot.
|08 10 08
|I agree with Ordy: Justin Trudeau would not be campaigning outside of his own riding---let alone outside of his own province---if the Liberals' own numbers for this riding showed the tiniest doubt of his victory.
|08 10 07
|Seeing justin Trudeau in Vancouver today confirmed me what I had been suspecting for a few weeks now: the name Trudeau will get Justin elected. The name Trudeau still has a magical effect on many voters, especially with cultural communities which represents the majority of voters in this riding. May people have PET picture hanging on their apartment wall. This riding had always been liberal since the beginning of the confederation. Still shameful though that someone with nothing else than a word will beat an excellent MP that really worked her riding.Liberal win by 2 to 3ooo votes.
|08 10 06
|With the current surge in Quebec Liberal voters, I would move this from the TCTC to a slight Liberal advantage. I don't think the Liberal establishment would allow a Trudeau to lose in an election, and that trend should continue.
|08 10 06
|With the Bloc rising, Trudeau will have a hard time. His name is a lightning rod, and I expect the people who disliked his father's social, economic and political policies outnumber those who don't. Anybody but Trudeau.
|08 09 30
|Selon un sondage Segma réalisé ces derniers jours, Justin Trudeau récolte 40 % des intentions de vote après répartition proportionnelle des indécis, soit une avance de six points de pourcentage sur la députée bloquiste sortante Vivian Barbot (34%).
|08 09 23
|Joey Joe Joe
|Trudeau in a close race. Pettigrew had a difficult time with the riding when the Bloc was riding high but pulled it out. With the Bloc riding so low this will be a pickup. Name recognition always counts is worth a hundred lawn signs and Trudeau has it.
|08 09 23
|Ce sera tres serré.
Mais je crois que le compté restera au Bloc :
1- Le Bloc est capable de le gagner (duh!)
2- Très très peu de votes francophones nationalistes iront au PC: il y a eu un article dans La Presse démontrant que Sarker ne parle pas 2 mots de français.
3- Viviane Barbot attire une certaine clientèle ethnique
Ce sera un cas de recomptage.
Very tight race.
But I think it will remain to the BQ:
1- The Bloc is able to win it (duh!)
2- Very very very few francophones votes will go from BQ to Conservatives : There was an article on Sarker (candidate) in La Presse showing Sarker can't speak French after 25 years in Montreal!
3- Viviane Barbot can win some ethnical votes
We might have to recount the votes at the end. Very tight!
|08 09 20
|trudeau should win this one pretty handily, but not for the inane reasons some have posted here. in effect, whilst it's tempting to see this one as shaking out along the same lines as the contests in ahuntsic and jeanne-le ber (which the liberals are on course to lose), trudeau's star power has re-oriented the contest into a two way race, effectively neutralizing the rising fortunes of the ndp and cpc that threaten to sink liberal campaigns elsewhere. the question in 2006 for the ~15% of the ridings voters who are not cognitive partisans had two components: 1) do you want to punish the liberal government?; and 2) do you trust gilles duceppe and the bloc?. the answer in papineau, by a fairly narrow margin among the electorate, but by a large margin among the non-partisans, was yes on both counts. because of his star power, this time around, these same types are asking the question: do i want to vote for justin trudeau. a number will answer no, but unlike in 2006, these will have 3 legitimate options (ndp, cpc and bq) rather than only the one (bq). and those who answer yes, and the lpc cognitive partisans should carry him over the line. really, the unique dynamic of being a trudeau makes this probably the only riding in all of quebec where the vote split works to the benefit of the liberal candidate.
|08 09 19
|The Bloc will most likely hold on to this one. Vivian Barbot is very strong and very well liked as a candidate.
The Liberals have two strikes against them:
1) They have taken for granted their traditional voter base. This was their undoing in Outremont.
2) Speaking of Outremont, the Liberals continue to recruit candidates who live in the borough of Outremont. Pierre Pettigrew lives there, as does Justin Trudeau. This puts Trudeau automatically out-of-touch with his constituents. It's not enough for someone to parachute into a riding and then study it like someone on a field assignment which is what Trudeau has done. Plus, Trudeau is running on his family name, which is one strike against him in high-turnout Villeray.
Barbot will win this, maybe by a few hundred votes, but she will have earned the right to sit as MP a second time, regardless of party affiliation.
|08 09 17
|Some people here have said that Vivian Barbot is a formidable candidate, but she only won this riding by 990 votes in 2006. Considering that she had the advantage of running against a Liberal during the Sponsorship Scandal and only won by a small margin, that's not necessarily that impressive.
Since that time the Bloc has lost more support than the Liberals in Quebec, so won't it be a challenge for the Bloc to win here? Voters from other parties may also decide to vote for Justin in order to have a possible future leader rather than an MP who will be in opposition forever. Justin could get some votes from the other left-wing parties like the NDP as his father was always very popular with left-wing voters and drew a lot of NDP support.
It's also important to remember that there were people who predicted Justin wouldn't win the Liberal nomination for this riding and he ended up winning on the first ballot.
|08 09 17
|You guys from outside Quebec have to understand how much Justin Trudeau is perceived here in Montreal. This guy is widely seen as nothing but a ridiculous spoiled kid who embarasses himself each time he talks. He does not connect with French Quebecers, and the absurd way he expresses himself -a sort of French-English hybrid- is the joke of the day. His party trails badly in the polls, and the Bloc organization from Papineau is one of the strongest the Bloc still has in the province. The incumbent Vivian Barbot is a powerful, popular foe.
To only wild card here is the NPD, who might take several hundred votes to the Bloc in the Villeray area. As for the CPC, they picked up more votes in the Park and St.Michel area (traditional Liberal areas) than they did to the Bloc last time, so don't count on the CPC to be the spoiler for the Bloc, it ain't gonna happen.
|08 09 16
|Je pense que plusieurs libéraux ne voteront pas pour Justin, parce que s'il était élu député, le parti libéral ne s'en remetttra jamais au Québec. C'est pas à cause de ses idées (il n'en a pas sauf celles maladroitement empruntées à son défunt père), mais parce que Justin Trudeau n'a aucun sens politique, ni de son propre ridicule (juste à voir les vidéos de son site web, on constate qu'il n'est pas du tout conscient du ridicule grotesque auquel il s'expose lui-même).
Viviane Barbot est bien implantée dans le comté, et elle va gagner par une marge un peu plus confortable que la dernière fois, à cause entre autres des fédéralistes qui ne voudront pas voter Justin Trudeau, et aussi à cause de l'antagonisme qu'il suscite dans la partie francophone du comté, où les gens vont voter massivement contre lui.
|08 09 15
|Bloc got enough additional protest votes last time because of the sponsorship scandals with Pierre Pettigrew as a perfect illustration of being of that Liberal era. This time, the liberals will have more votes because of a young charismatic guy coming from the best known political family in Canadian history and regularly on TV! Although the race may be tight, this will likely be a (rare) liberal gain in Quebec. Although I do not appreciate him personally, I think people will fall for the idea that he could eventually be prime minister in 10 years instead of voting for rather unknown people.
|08 09 12
|Unless the NDP and Conservatives are able to increase their vote here by a large margin, this should remain a Bloc vs. Liberal fight. Who has the edge though?
Well, this was a long-term Liberal riding that probably only went Bloc because of the Sponsorship Scandal and because its MP (Pierre Pettigrew) was not popular anymore. The Liberals have one of the highest-profile candidates in Canada running, and the Bloc is dropping in Quebec. Even if the Liberal number doesn't go up from last time, if the Bloc number drops it should be enough for Justin Trudeau to win since the Bloc only won the seat by 1,000 votes last time. Voters from other parties who want to see a possible future Liberal leader may also vote Liberal.
What's interesting is that Justin Trudeau seems to have both good things and bad things to deal with - according to CTV last week, he is having trouble getting workers to help him in the riding because they think he is going to win. That may be a good sign for him if it's true, or a bad sign if he isn't getting the help he may need!
|08 09 13
|Let;s go expos
|I'm afraid Justin's not going to be able to pull it off here.
Firstly, nobody on the island is terribly excited to vote grit -they have major problems, both in media and ground visibility.
Secondly, I live across the street from this riding and I saw how serious the bloc organization was. Equipe Barbot 'signed; the bejeezus out of the riding -a day before writ drop.
Thirdly, the other two relevant parties (tories and dippers) will do their damnedest to assure a Trudeau loss. Thus, given the grits plummet in popularity, Trudeau will lose by a thousand votes or so.
|08 09 13
|I voted in Papineau in 2006.
The Liberals were coming off a 10000+ lead in the last elections.
They had Pierre Pettigrew, one of the leader of the party.
Still the Bloc won this one.
Do not underestimate Viviane Barbot. She use to be president of the Women Federation of Quebec and after one election she's already #3 in the Bloc.
The only hope for Trudeau is that enough francophones switch to the PCC, which seems kind of unlikely with a PCC representative that doesn't speak French !
This is clearly not a Conservative division.
Message to the Ontarians readers ans analysts here : Quebec is still very very angry with the Liberals. Montreal included. (Liberals lost Papineau, Ahustic, Jeanne Le Ber and Outremont on the Montreal Island!)
As now, I would say the Bloc will win this one.
|08 09 13
|Perte du Bloc et gain des Libéraux. On aurait tort de sous-estimer le poids de l'héritage de P.E. Trudeau chez les communautés culturelles pour qui, dans de nombreux cas, est l'homme qui leur aura permis de refaire leur vie au Canada. Juste le nom sera suffisant pour les faire voter libéral, dans un comté fortement multiethnique.
|08 09 02
|Dr Bear without Prof Ape
|Tug a little bit of the soft-nationalist Francophone vote towards the CPC. Tug a little more of the left-leaning Francophone vote towards the NDP. Tug some of that post-sponsorgate honked-off federalist Francophone vote back towards the Liberals and we see the making of a Liberal re-take.
|08 03 20
|Well, Peg Leg, as I've addressed in several other riding threads, 'Urban Canada' constitutes more than just Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, and outside the three largeset municipalities, the Conservatives are doing just fine. I don't quite see what makes Justin Trudeau qualified to be party leader or Prime Minister. A leadership run on his part would be based on nostalgia and the requisite mentioning of his father's Constitution patriation approximately every 7 minutes. He would pull in support in areas where the Liberals are ALREADY strong (Toronto, Atlantic Canada, anglo-Montreal), meaning that Toronto-Centre, for instance, will go 80% Liberal instead of 60%, but they certainly won't eat in to any Conservative strongholds. I hope Justin enjoys his time as a Liberal Opposition backbencher, because I doubt there will be anything more in store for him.
|08 03 03
|Peg Leg Pete
|Even when he's picking a Liberal to win, Conservative Stevo can't help taking a shot. I think there's a chance Trudeau will end up being the next leader of the Liberal Party. Can he become PM with as Stevo says ‘without a single vote in Francophone Quebec or Western Canada’? What Stevo doesn't recognize is that we aren't going to get a majority government again in this country for a very long time. Rural Canadians want a hard line, right wing government like the one Harper leads. Urban Canadians want a left of centre, progressive government and tend to vote Liberal. Then there's 45 seats in Quebec where the people elect Block MPs. Everyone is very dug in and the result is the next election will be fought in a hand full of seats. The only ridings up for grabs next time are the one in Newfoudland where Danny William is out to destroy Harper, a few in the suburbs of Montreal, mid-sized cities in Ontario like Peterborough, London and St. Catharines and the suburbs of Vancouver. So, can the Conservatives win another minority without any seats in urban Canada? The answer is yes. Can the Liberals win a minority without any seats in rural Canada? The answer there is also yes. So Stevo's idea that Trudeau can't become PM really doesn't make sense when you look at Canada in the 21st century. I predict Trudeau wins by 3000 votes here as people will see him as a possible PM.
|08 02 03
|I'll hedge, because Vivien Barbot's got a bit of that Peggy Nash-ish ‘if it weren't for the opponent, she'd have earned her way to reelection’ thing going. On the other hand, Mr. Sophie Gregoire is, well, he is who he is. Perhaps he's to the federal Grits what Lisette Lapointe was to the Parti Quebecois in '07, i.e. just the kind of candidate to push against disastrous cross-winds...
|08 01 13
|Not sure how Justin Trudeau will become PM without a single vote in francophone Quebec or Western Canada, but his disciples certainly are confident, I'll give them that. He will indeed win here in a walk although you can bet Mr. Dion's advisors will do their best to keep him quiet and out of the spotlight.
|07 12 23
|I'm Always Right
|Justin Trudeau will win this seat in a walk. Voters in Papineau know that after Lame Duck Dion resigns on election night, the son of PET will be a leading candidate to take over the Liberal party. I say Trudeau wins this seat by 10,000 votes and is the next leader of the federal party. You heard it hear first! Papineau will be the home riding of the next Canadian PM.
|07 11 07
|Perhaps if the Liberals were in power, Trudeau could win based on his campaign of looks and his father's legacy. However, for a candidate who had a very tough nomination battle, his current strategy will not be enough. He needs to come up with policy appeal, not just a smile and a picture of his father with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Last time around the Bloc was able to defeat a high-profile Cabinet Minister. This time around, if they win it will be because Trudeau has very little to offer and a good campaign. If Trudeau wins, it'll be because he brought some intelligence to his campaign or because the Bloc is slowly vanishing into obscurity. The way things are headed, he'd sooner win due to weakening Bloc Quebecois than an intelligent campaign.
|07 10 05
|I don't buy the notion that the name Trudeau will be an handicap in a multicultural riding like Papineau. His real problem is that he is not his father. He is not as brilliant and charismatic as his father was. Vivian Barbot is very popular with Haitians... but she does not appear to be that popular with other voters. Liberals will win here if they appear to be winning the election nationally; otherwise the Bloc will keep this riding.
|07 07 18
|Trudeau has a lock on this one. Bloc barely won in 06 and were well below 50% so there’s definitely lots of room for a Liberal win and it probably won’t be very close either. The BQ win was the first Liberal loss in 57 years but it will go down as simply a loss because of the sponsorship scandal and Papineau will come back to the Liberals next time by 10%.
|07 06 25
|Pas si vite!!! Viviane Barbot du Bloc Qu?b?cois n'a ?t? ?lue que par environ 900 voix de majorit? sur Pierre Pettigrew. Justin Trudeau est peut-?tre le candidat controvers? mais il a du charisme et une vision qui m'apparait int?ressante. De plus, Elsie Lefebvre du PQ a ?t? battue le 26 mars dernier par Gerry Sklavounos du Parti Lib?ral du Qu?bec avec un peu plus de 1000 voix de majorit?. Donc, Trudeau a de bonnes chances de l'emporter dans cette circonscription.
|07 06 19
|Maintenant qu'on sait que le candidat libéral est Justin Trudeau, Vivian Barbot sera réélue.
Les gens ne veulent plus retourner dans l'ère trudeauiste qui nie la nation québécoise et le déséquilibre fiscal.
C'est pour cela que les citoyen(ne)s de Papineau feront un vote stratégique et garderont le Bloc.
De plus, madame Barbot est très appréciée et a le soutien de la communauté haïtienne, étant elle-même de cette nationalité.
Victoire assurée du Bloc!
|07 04 28
|Whoa whoa, hold the phone, everyone - according to the buzz, Justin Trudeau isn't even assured of being NOMINATED in this riding, much less winning it. In fact, the Libs probably have a better chance here with one of the local candidates in the nomination race rather than Trudeau. If we go by the polling numbers, the Liberals *should* be able to re-take this riding, but Vivian Barbot is more formidable than they would like to believe.
|07 04 08
|While I'm not so sure that Stéphane Dion was particularly pleased when Justin decided to dump the Trudeau name into Dion's campaign team (can you just picture this guy going through francophone Quebec and western Canada drumming up support for a return to his father's socialist, centralist vision??), I have to agree that he is far too much of a Montreal celebrity to lose this one. Welcome to Ottawa, Monsieur Trudeau. Good thing for Belinda, since Justin is one of the few people to make her seem gravitas-enriched by comparison.
|07 04 07
|Tout dépend de qui sera le candidat libéral.
Si Trudeau gagnait l'investiture (ce qui est loin d'être fait), je prédis une victoire bloquiste et la réélection de Vivian Barbot. Le simple nom TRUDEAU a un effet REPOUSSOIR au Québec. Stéphane Dion le sait, pas pour rien qu'il ne veut pas de Justin !
Si par contre un libéral plus acceptable gagnait l'investiture, il pourrait reprendre ce siège, qui est ‘naturellement’ libéral et pas du tout bloquiste.
|07 04 03
|I feel that, in these days of fédéralisme d’ouverture that Mr. Trudeau will be more of a burden than an asset to the Liberals. If he is the liberal candidate, Vivian Barbot will keep this seat for the Bloc. Otherwise, i see this as a too close to call. Just look at the Laurier_Dorion results at the provincial level. The P.Q. candidate lost a close race. The most liberal part of that provincial riding is not part of the federal riding
|07 03 27
|Dr Bear & Prof Ape
|With the sponsorship scandal all but forgotten, the seperatists in disarray after the provincial losses, Dion's popularity on his home soil, Liberal's rebounding in Montreal and most of all a Trudeau running (have you ever heard this guy speak?), the Liberals will make short work of Barbot and the BQ. This will not be close (okay, we're not talking Mount Royal numbers, but still...).
|07 03 26
|I believe that this riding was not so much won by Viviane Barbot, as it was lost by Pierre Pettigrew, who whittled away Liberal pluralities of over 20 000 in the Andre Ouellette days down to 400 votes, and then finally blowing it completely.
Justin Trudeau will easily reclaim this one for the Liberals. He's actually been out there knocking on doors, and that will make a big difference.
|07 03 24
|Vivian Barbot is a popular incumbent, but Trudeau is a popular newcomer. If the Liberals continue to rise and the Bloc continues to fall, this seat will easily go Liberal. I have a feeling that once an election starts, however, the Liberal support might melt away, considering Stephane Dion's lack of popularity in the province.
Nonetheless, for now it is definitely too close to call.
|07 03 21
|Justin Trudeau does have somewhat of a celebrity icon status, although unlike Ontario and Atlantic Canada where his father is still loved, his father isn't so well liked in Quebec, although not hated to the same degree as in Alberta. Still either way I expect this to be close, however since Dion is reasonably popular in Quebec, I would guess it would go Liberal.
|07 03 20
|I don't live in this riding, but just can't see Justin Trudeau losing here. He's a celebrity in Canadian politics, and Papineau used to be one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. Trudeau pick-up.