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11:04 AM 28/03/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Brunelle, Pierre-Olivier
Fine, Marsha
Bloc Québécois
Gagnon, Reny
Patry, Bernard
New Democratic
Siddiqui, Shameem
Young, Ryan

Bernard Patry

2006 Résultats:
Bernard Patry **
Don Rae
Denis Martel
Shameem Siddiqui
Leo Williams
Garnet Colly

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 09 16 segacs
There will be a shift towards the Conservatives somewhat, particularly among the Jewish community who represent a large portion of the population in Dollard. But it won't be enough to overcome this riding's long Liberal tradition. I grew up in Dollard and it hasn't voted Tory since the Mulroney / Gerry Weiner era. The Liberals had over twice as many votes as the Conservatives two years ago, and nothing has shifted all that dramatically in Pierrefonds-Dollard to change that.
08 04 28 Neal Ford
Anyone hoping for a Tory breakthrough in Pierrefonds-Dollard this time around is probably dreaming. I lived there for 10 years, in the Jewish part of town, and though there was an openness to Stephen Harper and his pro-israel policies, the stench of old Reform still remains...
However, as has been pointed out Westpark is only a part of the riding, which is every bit as multicultural as St.Laurent. I worked an eastern Pierrefonds poll in the 2004 election when Andrea Paine ran a strong, well financed and high profile campaign in the riding, and yet Dr. Patry cleaned up, not only my poll but others as well.
>From what I've heard the Tories will not be running Don Rae, their candidate from 2006, or Andrea paine in this riding. So it looks like, barring an '84 style blue tide, that Dr. Patry will continue to serve as MP.
08 03 08 A.S.
Unlike in Lac-Saint-Louis, the Liberals *did* keep its head above 50% here. Yet unlike LSL, the Tories actually managed to win or score higher than Grits in a few poll divisions, thanks to something verging on a three-way-split situation within L'Ile-Bizard. As for the Jewish vote (and of course, things have changed over the past few Thornhill elections relative to '99), wait and see--maybe that's why some Montreal polls have shown high Tory numbers?--but when it comes to E-day, a massive winning Jewish Tory swing is doubtful, or else (as in the GTA) heavily cubbyholed within certain polls; all in all, the seat's too ‘diverse’, the perfect juncture of West Island Anglo affluence and the kind of St. Laurentine multicult that guarantees Stephane Dion's personal permanence.
07 04 13 St. Paul's Progressive
Steve I have read a great deal on the political behavior of Canadian Jews and my conclusions are based on historically very high levels of support for the Liberals and NDP and very low levels of support for the Tories. Even your Thornhill example is problematic. First of all Thornhill in '99 was the weakest 905 victory and unlike a lot of 905 seats it never gave a majority of its votes to the Ontario PC's. Before the Harris years the PC's were Red Tories who were often more progressive than the provincial Liberals so the context is totally different. Not to mention the Liberals actually did better in the Jewish parts of Thornhill while the Conservatives carried the Italian areas.
But what does this have to do with Pierrefonds-Dollard? Not much. You're right to state that all anglo groups in Montreal are big Liberal voters, although historically Jews in Montreal have voted Liberal and NDP at a higher rate and Conservative at a lower rate than their WASP counterparts.
Anyway anglo Montreal riding = safe Liberal seat. Enough said.
07 04 13 Brian Appel
I spent a lot of time in this riding during my youth, visiting family and friends, and still pass through here occasionally. This is a mostly suburban anglophone riding with lots of green space. There's some busy parts, but mostly it's a riding where people live in areas with no sidewalks and sit in a rocking chair on the porch during the summertime, drinking homemade iced tea. Many Scottish and Irish immigrants, and a large population of Jews. Yes, this is a traditionally Liberal riding, but people here vote more for the candidate than the party. Dr. Patry's well-liked and has very little to worry about unless the Conservatives nominate a strong community leader, possibly from the Irish or Scottish community. The NDP and Bloc are pretty much off the map here.
07 04 08 Stevo
I take issue with St. Paul Progressive's incessant generalizing of Canada's Jewish population. Just as one cannot assume that Jews will vote Conservative because of Harper's stance on the Middle East, so too one cannot assume that Jews ‘disagree with the Conservatives on almost everything else’. In Ontario, Mike Harris had great support among the Jewish community (the former head of the Canadian Jewish Congress, running as a Liberal in Thornhill in 1999, even LOST that race to a Conservative, in the most Jewish riding in the country). Montreal anglophones - be they WASP, Jewish, Italian, Irish, etc - are the most diehard supporters of the Liberal party. Jewish support in Montreal simply follows the trends of other primarily anglo groups in the city.
07 04 03 St. Paul's Progressive
Definitely Liberal. And the so-called ‘Jewish vote’ will contribute to the Liberal victory, not work against it. I don't know why people keep insisting Harper is going to win the Jewish vote. The Conservatives have always fared poorly among Canadian Jews and very few primarily cast their vote based on Israel policy. They may appreciate Harper's support for Israel but ultimately they cast their votes based on a variety of issues, just like other Canadians. And in the case of Canadian Jews, they disagree with the Conservatives on almost everything else and are far more small 'l' liberal than the general population.
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
Though the Tories have made gains in Pierrefonds-Dollard, short of a stellar candidate, the 'good Doctor' Bernard Patry, or his successor, if he decides not to run, will hold this for the Liberals.
A word of warning, many in the extensive Jewish community in Pierrefonds-Dollard , who have traditionally supported the Liberals in good times and bad, do like the way Mr. Harper has handled the Israel file, and foreign policy. However, the increasing numbers of Muslims and Arabs in the area, combined with the fact that this riding borders on Mr. Dion's St-Laurent-Cartierville riding, I think will keep this in Liberal hands.

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