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3:15 PM 27/10/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Brault, Céline
Cannon, Lawrence
Duncan McMillan, Cindy
Legros, Benoit
Sylvestre, André
Bloc Québécois
Tremblay, Marius

L'hon. Lawrence Cannon

2006 Résultats:
Lawrence Cannon
Christine Émond Lapointe
David Smith **
Céline Brault
Moe Garahan
Benoit Legros

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 12 binriso
Heck if the BQ manage to take this seat, theyll probably manage to hit a historic high in Quebec(ie above 54 seats). And frankly its not out of the question yet..... several instances of recent polling would tip this seat, since its only a 5-6% margin.
08 10 11
Conservatives are dropping fast in Quebec. At the Wakefield debate Cannon was not warmly received! Celine Brault is the sharpest candidate, but the Bloc is moving up fast provincially.
08 10 11 dls
I couldn't imagine Cannon losing at the beginning of the election, but the game has changed so much in Québec that is a possibility. There has been a lot written in the local media that Cannon has been seen by some as not very present in the riding and not responsive enough to local needs. I believe the quote that was supposed to echo local sentiments in Maniwaki was that when Cannon comes he comes to talk and not to listen. I don't know how widespread this sentiment is but its food for thought.
Also, considering he only won by 3,000 votes last time and sagging Conservative poll numbers in the province. I wouldn't be shocked if Cannon lost on Tuesday, but I still think he's the favourite.
08 10 03 AC
A really hard call. Since no one else seems to be talking about this important riding, I thought I would at least submit the info from Fred Ryan's Ottawa Citizen article. Basically, Cannon too busy being a Minister and not focusing enough on local issues. Celine Brault of NDP has the best command of the issues. BQ and Liberals have new candidates and it is hard to predict what their support will be.
I'd really like more info and insight, but other than this article haven't seen much.
08 04 26 Stevo
Pontiac is a tough riding to call. On the face of it, the residual strength of the Liberals in southwestern Quebec makes it far less safe for the Conservatives than their Quebec City and Beauce strongholds, in which the Liberals are more or less on par with the Natural Law Party. On the other hand, Pontiac's proximity to the Eastern Ontario blue-belt probably makes it less likely than Quebec City to swing away from the Tories on issues like Afghanistan or climate change. I feel confident in making a Conservative prediction since several Quebec-only polls (with very large sample sizes) have put both the Tories and the Bloc at around 30% support in Quebec, with the Liberals down at around 20%. Many of the recent troubles that have cost the Harper Tories support in Ontario seem not to have made an impact in their Quebec support - and it's doubtful that anything will, in the lead-up to the next election campaign.
08 03 09 A.S.
Going into the 2006 (or maybe even more so--despite the absence of Lawrence Cannon--the 2004) election, a certain judgment might have seen this as the most likely CPC gain in Quebec, on account of its being atypical of Quebec seats and more intertwined with Cheryl Gallant's Ottawa River Valley--sure, the party might have done better in some Quebec City-area seats, but over there it smelled more like a plateau than like a harbinger; here, the party was actually winning big swaths of polls rather than just bottom-feeding off votes. Yeah, well, little did we know...and not only that, but Cannon won almost as an afterthought, with barely a third of the vote (though perhaps depressed by a Liberal incumbent running) and woefully off-orbit from what turned out to be the *real* Quebec Tory-slash-ADQ power base. Even now, despite being Harper's Quebec lieutenant, Cannon seems a square peg inadvertently overshadowed by the likes of Maxime Bernier; but he *does* now have incumbent advantage, and his provincial Liberal past might even come to electoral benefit this time (who knows, if Harper goes down the tubes, maybe Cannon'll be tempted to jump back to the Grit camp, cross fingers etc). In fact, dare I say this, but given the adjacent Françoise Boivin/Pierre Ducasse dynamic, don't be surprised if Cannon's main challenge comes from the *NDP*, which has tended to fare above the Quebec average here...
07 10 05 Paul Tremblay
Whoever wins the election nationally will win the riding. At this point it looks more like a Tory win than a Liberal one... but if polls show that the Liberals will win the election, Cannon's status as a minister will be completely worthless for electoral purposes, the Conservatives' past results are not strong enough to consider the possibility of an Opposition Tory MP.
Put this in the Tory column... for now.
07 10 02 Daniel
I don't think Cannon will have much trouble here. Most polling has shown that the decline in Bloc support has benefited everyone *but* the Liberals, so the idea that a floundering BQ will somehow put Cannon in danger from the Liberals is probably not accurate. I think Cannon will increase his share at the expense of both the Bloc and Liberals.
07 08 13 binriso
This is by no means a safe bet as the Liberals have always done pretty well here except for 06. The BQ vote should decline alot here and i think more of it will go Liberal than Conservative. Lawrence Cannon will probably still be elected but it is by no means a safe seat and will be relatively close.
07 06 20
M?me si le PLQ a r?ussi ? conserver Pontiac, au f?d?ral le d?put? est Lawrence Cannon.
Il est une des t?tes d'affiche des Conservateurs au Qu?bec, le lieutenant politique de Harper au Qu?bec et un ministre-senior au sein du Conseil des ministres.
De plus, il ?tait ministre lib?ral au provincial sous Bourassa.
Victoire plus confortable des Conservateurs dans ce comt
07 05 02 Stevo
Wow, je pense que M.C. doit se reposer et faire face au realité. Je suggere aussi qu'il arrete de parler la rhetorique drole (‘conservateur allianciste extreme-droit’?? c'est quelle année? 2003?). Cependant, je suis d'accord qu'il est possible que M. Cannon perdra son siege, mais à cause que du fait il etait un ministre faible et invisible (eclipsé pas non seulement Maxime Bernier, mais aussi Michel Fortier), pas à cause des politiques du PCC. M.C. est fou de croire que les gens de ce comté vont voter basé sur Kyoto - Pontiac n'est pas Montreal centre-ville, c'est un comté centre-droit et un peu rural. Ceux pour qui Kyoto est un sujet principal ne voteraient pas Conservateur en tous cas en 2006, et Cannon a gagné malgre ca. Cannon a l'avantage, mais les Liberaux ou le PQ peut gagner ici.
07 04 24 M.C.
Victoire conservatrice avec Lawrence Cannon?!? Vraiment illogique!! Cannon et ses collègues conservateurs du Québec ont jeté le feu au poudre dans le dossier de Kyoto en attaquant Jean Charest et le Parti Libéral du Québec qui, eux, avait un plan qui va facilement atteindre les objectifs fixées par le Protocole de Kyoto!! Cannon n'est pas sans savoir que Charlotte L'Écuyer du PLQ a été réelue très facilement avec plus de 58% des suffrages exprimés le 26 mars dernier dans Pontiac au provincial!!! La différence entre le PLQ et les conservateurs est que le PLQ de Jean Charest appuie Kyoto et que les 10 députés conservateurs du Québec préferent défendre leur chef et leurs petits copains de l'Alberta et les pétrolières!!! Franchement, ceux et celles qui appuient le Parti Libéral du Québec devraient logiquement appuyer le Parti Libéral du Canada! En clair, je prédis une défaite écrasante de Cannon et de ses copains conservateurs radicaux au Québec et à une victoire éclatante du PLC, non seulement dant Pontiac, mais également dans tous les comtés ayant eu le malheur de tomber dans le piège des conservateurs-alliancistes d'extrême-droite!
07 04 23 G. Kennedy (not that one)
Apparently Mahoney has lost the nomination. I'd say the Liberal odds of carrying the riding are now even less.
07 04 16 RF
How come it seems in recent years, Deputy Prime Ministers have been located in ridings where you are far from assured a victory. Anne McLellan eventually fell, but I foresee Lawrence Cannon, Stephen Harper's Quebec Lieutenant, hanging on for a while more. Mind you, we won't see any 50%+ results, but he will break 40%.
07 04 07 Stéphane Gaudet
Lawrence Cannon, comme ministre senior du cabinet Harper et lieutenant québécois, devrait gagner plus facilement cette fois-ci et augmenter sa majorité.
Victoire conservatrice plus aisée qu'en janvier 2006.
07 04 01 Nick J Boragina
The real race here will be between the Liberals and the Conservatives, as the Bloc will likely drop off in terms of vote this election. That being said, I forsee most of the Bloc vote going to the more nationalist tories, as opposed to the extreme-federalist lead Liberals. It wont be a landslide, but my feeling is that Cannon will re-take his riding.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Will probably go Conservative, but really any of the three parties could potentially win here. Lawrence Cannon has the advantage of being a prominent cabinet minister, which should help him so the Bloc Quebecois and Liberals will need a strong candidate to take him down, but it still can be done.

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