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11:06 AM 28/03/2007

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Bellemare, Réjean
Bloc Québécois
Dufour, Nicolas
Fournier, Paul W.
Royer, Bruno
Semegen, Robert

Raymond Gravel

2006 Résultats:
Benoît Sauvageau **
Claude Jr Lafortune
Josyanne Forest
Réjean Bellemare
Adam Jastrzebski

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 03 binriso
Mehh 25000 votes seems to much to overcome and especially since the BQ are polling at around 35-40%(only about 5 points lower than last election). That and there was a byelection too, where the BQ vote actually went up to 66.3%. This was obviously before the provincial election, but it was still a 50 point advantage. The CPC will no doubt close the gap, since the incumbent left politics, but Im still thinking the BQ win, by more than 12 000 votes(possibly many more than that if they stay above 35% in the polls).
08 09 13 John Mark L
I've lived in this riding for most of my life and I was used to only see separatists involved into provincial and federal politics. But now, a wind of change is in the air and voters seem to be fed-up with the Bloc, a party that can only be in the Opposition. The ADQ was elected in the last provincial election for this area and the ADQ members of the national assembly showed to the people of Repentigny that there is more to politics than the leftist, social-democrat ideology of the separatists. The Bloc chose a young 21 years old candidate for this riding. I don't think he will fare well in a debate against the Conservative candidate, who is much more experienced in business and economical issues.
08 09 09 Initial
Election night could prove to be very surprising when it comes to the federal riding of Repentigny. The victory of the ADQ in the provincial ridings that cover the federal riding of Repentigny changed the whole political dynamics in the area. The defeat of the PQ showed that separatists no longer have a monopoly on the political reality of Repentigny.
This is a suburban area, where a lot of people have homes and own at least two cars. A message about low taxation will probably attract a lot of voters. Also, the Bloc lost their star candidate. The Conservative candidate is very competent and well-known through the local media. The Conservative team seems well organized, and was the first to install signs throughout the riding. I predict a Conservative win.
08 09 09 Christophe Charbonne
Mr Gravel leave Repentigny.
The Adq won the provincial elections in this area and this was an unexpected result.
This could be a sign that this support for the separatist cause, is starting to crumble in this region.
The repentigny riding is populated mainly by middle class people who are now more concern with economical issue, than Quebec separation.
This is why this riding could go to the Conservative to the next election.
08 09 03 Phil D.
Raymond Gravel heeded the Vatican and is not running again. Normally given the riding this should be an easy Bloc hold. However their candidate, Nicolas Dufour, is only 21 years old. If the Tories are even slightly competitive around Montreal, this one could be closish - it is ADQ provincially, and top Tory target Berthier-Maskinong? is right next door. A good election night seat to watch to measure the extent of Bloc erosion, and the extent of whether the ADQ vote was conservative or protest in these areas.
08 02 15 A.S.
If an ADQ victory's gonna be regarded as a one-time-only ‘what were we thinking?’ phenomenon anywhere, it's in territory like this; the chances of a Tory upset would have been greater had the minority gov't fallen in early-mid '07 as many were predicting. Though it's worth considering the differences btw/ADQ and CPC territory out there. i.e. the likely ADQ/BQ zones in suburban Montreal, vs the CPC/Lib or CPC/PQ blend in Pontiac and the Saguenay...
07 11 09 C B
Without a doubt, this riding will stay BQ. This is a staunchly separatist and Bloc riding. No matter how high the Tories or Liberals climb, the Bloc have it locked.
07 09 24 Nick J Boragina
This was the single strongest riding for the Bloc in the last election. Since then we’ve had a by-election here won by a candidate (for the bloc) who some considered fringe. Although the ADQ has a base here, and I don’t think this riding will remain the strongest for the Bloc, I do expect that they will be the winners, with a small chance of TCTC.
07 07 18 binriso
Please, the Bloc ran away with this one last election when the Conservatives were at 25% in Quebec and in the by-election won almost 4 times as many votes as the Conservative party with 66.3%(!) of the vote for the BQ. No one has any chance of taking them out this time either.
Polls aren’t really showing any big Conservative growth in Quebec with most polls putting them between 25-30%. Now i know that some have put them at like 33% or something like that, but others have put them at 16%-17% too. Even though the BQ are declining they are still generally ahead by around 5% in each poll. They'd probably have to be trailing the CPC by like 30 points in Quebec before this one would even be close. The CPC are not the ADQ.
07 04 12 Ancastarian
This riding will stay Bloc. Duceppe is a lot more popular than the fumbling Bosclair, and this has traditionally been on of the Bloc's strongest. Unless there is a total Bloc wipeout (and there won't be), expect this riding to return another BQ lackey...
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
Smok should remember that the ADQ's win here was a shocker to the ADQ itself. Even with the tories far behind in the last ballot, they do stand to potentially gain this time around, especially when you take into account that 2 years ago they had no party machine in the province, and the ADQ had no party machine in the area. Now both are in place, and it could spell surprise victory. Fortier will be looking for a riding to run in, should be pick this one, its anyones guess.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This area actually went for the ADQ in the last provincial election so not quite as safe as some might think. Still much of the ADQ was a protest vote and I really cannot see how the Conservatives will pick this up. If Mario Dumont were Conservative leader federally and Andre Boisclair the BQ leader, this could be up for grabs, but Harper is not nearly as popular as Dumont and Ducepper is far more popular than Boisclair so right now, chalk this up for the Bloc Quebecois.
07 03 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Surprise! Repentigny went ADQ in Monday's election. Maybe this isn't so secure for the BQ after all. We really think the BQ will hold it, but then again, in 2006 we though 6 seats for the Conservatives in Quebec was reasonable yet optimistic, 8 seats highly unlikely and 10 seats just plain silly....glad to see we were wrong!
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
Repentigny is one of ths staunchest Pequiste regions in Quebec, so even if the Tories end up dominating Quebec, this one stays in Bloc hands.

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