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2:37 PM 08/10/2008

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Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
élection générale (Canada) - 2007



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
Liberal
Béland, Pierre
New Democratic
Caron, Guy
Bloc Québécois
Guimond, Claude
Green
Morrison, James D.
Conservative
Noël, Gaston
Independent
Thibault, Louise

Député:
IND
Louise Thibault

2006 Résultats:
Louise Thibault **
19804
Roger Picard
9481
Michel Tremblay
8254
Guy Caron
4186
François Bédard
973

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats




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08 10 07 Stéphane Gaudet
70.82.32.76
Cette circonscription devrait être depuis longtemps attribué au Bloc. je ne comprends pas pourquoi on le voit comme un siège où ce sera serré. Rimouski est l'un des endroits les plus souverainistes au Québec, le candidat bloquiste est issu du milieu agricole et bien connu. La candidature de la députée sortante Louise Thibault ne brouillera pas du tout les cartes, ce n'est pas comme si elle était une forte pointure ou une députée très populaire. Victoire bloquiste facile, tout le monde de Rimouski en convient.
08 09 20 expat
69.50.62.187
An actual five-way race -- in this kind of circus, almost any outcome is possible. In theory, a candidate could win with a vote total in the low 20%s.
The incumbent MP, Louise Thibault, left the BQ (after an easy win in 2006 with 46%) and is now running for re-election as an independent. She remains popular and represents a lot of the non-left Quebec nationalists who are frustrated with Duceppe's down-playing of sovereignty. Based on reports from family in Rimouski, she has a energetic campaign and should probably be considered the favourite in this race.
The BQ's official candidate is Claude Guimond, former head of the farmer's union in the region. Duceppe was just in the riding campaigning for him, and the party seems to be committed to making a major push for him -- it isn't clear how many loyal Bloc voters will stick with the party instead of following Thibault.
Of course this kind of split in the nationalist vote could give one of the federalist parties a shot at the seat.
If that happens, the most likely beneficiary would be the Conservatives, who placed a distant second in 2006 with 22%, and whose support in Quebec outside of Montreal appears to be rising. Their candidate is Gaston Noel, a local mayor. While not very well known throughout the riding, he is a credible and active candidate for the CPC here, and could conceivably ride a Conservative tide to victory in the usually nationalist riding.
The Liberals received 20% in 2006 - but outside of Montreal they seem to be tanking. It seems unlikely that they could increase their vote here enough to sneak up the middle in a multiple candidate race. However, their candidate, Pierre Beland, is a solid one -- a relatively well known environmental scientist specializing in whales and other elements of the lower St Laurent river environment. He should hold most of the Liberal votes from the last election.
Finally, the NDP has a serious candidate in the riding - Guy Caron won 10% last time out (a remarkably high figure for this part of Quebec in the 2006 election). Caron is a native of Rimouski, former president of the Canadian Federation of Students and a staffer for a number of progressive advocacy organisations. With the NDP trying harder in Quebec this time, Layton viewed positively and Caron campaigning very actively, I'd expect his 10% to rise to maybe 15% or so, but the odds are pretty strongly against him breaking 20% into viability in this multi-candidate race. (Caron lives in the Outaouais now, and might stood a chance if he ran in one of those ridings (where Ducasse and Boivin are running strong campaigns for the NDP).
I'd give the edge to Thibault, but I wouldn't be surprised by just about any possible outcome.
08 09 19 Kim Leclerc
76.64.251.57
Normalement ça devrait être Bloc sans aucune difficulté, mais la division en deux du vote bloquiste avec Madame Thibault risque de faire échappé pour cette fois le ballon au bloc. Je mise sur le candidat libéral, plus connu que le conservateur, à la condition que les conservateurs continue à avoir une mauvaise campagne. Si les conservateurs se maintiennent ce sera conservateur, mais ce sera seulement un intermède, une fois les division réglé les bloquistes seront de retour.
08 09 15 St?phane Gaudet
70.82.32.76
Devrait demeurer bloquiste sans trop de difficult?. Le candidat bloquiste est bien enracin?. Le PCC ne fera pas de gains ? l'est de Rimouski, sauf peut-?tre Haute-Gasp?sie-Matane o? ce sera vraiment serr
07 12 06 Mark
76.66.52.189
I live in the bottom end of this riding, near the New Brunswick border. Despite this area being heavily federalist, the outcome of this riding will always result in what the more populous and sovereigntist Rimouski votes. They voted PQ in the last Quebec election, I don't see anything changing anytime soon, unfortunately.
07 11 03 A.S.
99.233.96.153
I'm inclined to agree that Rimouski's got a strong likelihood of remaining an isle of Bloc within a sea of CPC. And if Mulcair-mania's *really* running on overdrive, keep in mind that Guy Caron scored well above the provincial NPD norm for this kind of seat in both '04 and '06...
07 10 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
204.187.16.106
You would think that this would be a prime pick-up candidate for the CPC, but it's really not. If you look at the provincial election, Rimouski has long been a PQ stronghold and easily resisted the ADQ sweep. Actually much of the Bas St Laurent and Gaspisie regions avoided the ADQ. The other provincial ridings that comprise the federal riding either stayed PQ (Matapedia) or stayed Liberal (Kamouraska-Temiscouata, but that Liberal MNA has held the riding for over 10 years). The defection of the BQ MP, along with the strong CPC showing in Quebec will make the race closer, however it seems that the natural voter sentiment will result in a BQ win. Be interesting to see if this riding gets book-ended on either side by CPC gains.
07 10 19 C B
72.38.227.236
This riding should be too close to call at the very least, however I think it will go Conservative. The departure of Thibault leaves the riding without an incumbent and the Bloc numbers in the province are almost equal to that of the Conservatives now. Keep in mind as well that the Liberals have taken a nose dive and the Conservatives stand to gain a great many of those votes. If the Tories can keep their Quebec numbers through to the election, this should be one riding that they can win without too much difficulty. Things are not as they used to be politically dans la belle province.
07 05 21 Joel Charest
24.122.50.12
Le candidat vedette du parti libéral du Canada dans ce comté et éminant chercheur en sciences océanographiques monsieur Pier Béland pourrais bien aller chercher une majoritée au prochaines élections fédérales. Rimouski compte un bon noyaux de libéraux et celui ci pourrais s'élargir lors du prochain scrutin.Rappelons que monsieur Béland a reçu la visite de Stéphane Dion le mois passé dans la région et que monsieur Dion l'a qualifié lui même de candidat très ministrable. Ayant participer à un congrès avec cet homme je peut vous assurer qu'il fera un bon député pour la région.
07 04 24 Claude G.
74.14.210.63
Étant originaire du coin, et je peux vous dire que Mme Thibault n'a jamais vraiment été très appréciée dans mon entourage. Ce n'est pas elle qui gagnait le comté pour le Bloc québécois, c'est le Bloc québécois qui gagnait le comté pour elle.
Si elle se présente comme indépendante, elle ne réussira pas à diviser suffisamment le vote souverainiste pour permettre aux Conservateurs de passer, elle n'est juste pas assez populaire.
Donc, à moins que le Bloc québécois présente un parfait imbécile lors des prochaines élections, je prédis toujours une victoire du candidat bloquiste par une majorité d'au moins 3,000 voix sur son plus proche opposant, probablement le candidat conservateur. Le Parti libéral, quant à lui, est complètement hors-course dans le Québec francophone, et particulièrement dans un comté aussi souverainiste que Rimouski.
07 04 17 P.P.
70.82.50.99
Tout dépend de Mme Thibault. Si elle se présente comme indépendante, tout est possivble. Même une victoire libérale. Sinon, le comté demeurera Bloc dans cette région qui a résisté à la vague adéquiste pour l'essentiel
07 04 13 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Louise Thibault, now quitting, I think this riding could potentially be vulnerable although I think the BQ will hold it. Despite the ADQ gains in most of Rural Quebec, this was one of the few areas they performed poorly in. Mario Dumont's riding was essentially the beginning of the ADQ area all the way up to the suburbs of Montreal while east of Dumont's riding they did poorly.
Interestingly enough she is a social conservative and if not a separatist Thibault would probably be a conservative, so while a conservative win is possible here it is still a long shot.
07 04 13 P.P.
70.82.50.99
Normalement, un comté bloc sur. Mais avec MMe thibault qui pense à se présenter comme indépendante, tout est possible. Bloc, conservateur, libéral, Mme Thibault. Impossible à prédire en ce moment. Et si l'électio a lieu en 2008, '' all bets are off''
07 04 13 Brian Appel
64.230.124.52
Hmm...with Thibault quitting the party, this hits the Bloc hard in an area that the Conservatives could make gains in. It remains to be seen whether Thibault will run as an Independant in the next election, or simply quit politics altogether. Seeing as she remains a committed sovereigntist, there's zero chance of her joining another party, so that's out. If she runs next time, I see her splitting the vote enough to let the Conservatives win here. If she doesn't, I still predict a Conservative pickup, albeit a narrow one.
07 04 12 Christian Conservative
74.114.172.34
With Bloc MP Louise Thibault bailing on the Mr. Duceppe to sit as an independant, this riding could now be up for grabs. The Bloc will run a new candidate, and assuming Ms. Thibault runs as an independent, she may split some of the Bloc vote.
With some of the soft nationalist vote moving to the ADQ in the last provincial vote, the CPC stand a good chance of putting this one in the ‘Win’ column... IF they can capitalize on the separatist bleeding.
07 04 01 Claude G.
74.13.147.200
Rimouski est l'une des seules circonscriptions qui a été conservée par le Parti québécois lors des dernières élections provinciales. En 2006, Louise Thibault a obtenu plus de 10,000 voix de majorité sur son plus proche opposant. Le Bloc devrait réussir à garder aisément cette circonscription, mais je prédis que la majorité devrait fondre de moitié environ (principalement aux mains des conservateurs).



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