La prévision a changé
11:46 AM 10/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
Aubert, Anne Marie
Bloc Québécois
Laforest, Jean-Yves
Roof, Stéphane
St-Onge Lynch, Ronald
Toupin, Martial

Jean-Yves Laforest

2006 Résultats:
Jean-Yves Laforest
Martial Toupin
Lucille Whissell
Claude Larocque
Pierre Audette

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 10 dls
SEGMA Poll has the Laforest ahead by 37-18-15 over the Conservatives and Liberals. Based on this poll and recent Quebec poll numbers it looks like it will remain an easy Bloc hold.
08 10 10 Stéphane Gaudet
Ici aussi, je change d'avis. Pas de vague conservatrice au Québec, c'est le moins qu'on puisse dire. Au contraire, le PCC devra se compter bien chanceux s'il parvient à conserver tous ses sièges québécois mardi soir prochain. En l'absence de cette vague conservatrice qui aurait pu emporter le comté, St-Maurice-Champlain demeurera bloquiste.
08 10 06 binriso
So are the Conservatives even going to win ANY new seats in Quebec???? Mathematically this should be their first pickup(and its a fairly large margin too 5500 votes, more than 10% with a first time candidate running for the BQ) but im not sure anymore, Democratic Space has them projected at 10 seats (losing Jonquiere, prediction in seats is BQ 49, LIB 14, CPC 10, NDP 1 and Andre Arthur wins as an independent) while 4 of their other seats, mostly in the Quebec city area are TCTC, while a couple BQ seats are also TCTC including this one. Frankly I dont see how it is possible for Harper to win a majority unless he wins at least 10 more seats from Quebec (he needs 30 more seats) and he sure aint getting many new ones in the West. And I doubt Ontario will slide more than 10 over towards the CPC. What a waste of money..........................
08 09 29
Gain du Bloc. Les conservateurs ne feront pas de vague et leur influence s'arrête à Trois-rivières. Victoire Bloquiste.
08 09 28 binriso
So is the former CPC candidate running for the Greens here? Same name anyways. That sure doesnt help. But Chretien held this riding for like 30-40 years(although it was because of his profile and power and not so much the party). This is one of the closest CPC vs BQ races, but its still a 10% margin and actually the BQ is rebounding, while the CPC probably wont gain a whole lot of % from 06. TCTC but leaning Conservative.
08 09 15 Stéphane Gaudet
Comme Trois-Rivières, cette circonsciption de la Mauricie devrait être emportée par la vague conservatrice qui déferlera à partir de la région de Québec vers l'ouest et le nord (Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean). Sur la base des chiffres des sondages actuels, les conservateurs devraient améliorer leur bon score de 2006 suffisamment pour arracher le siège au Bloc qui, lui, est en voie de perdre 20-25% de ses suffrages.
08 02 16 A.S.
Re StMoeChamp's next-on-the-Tory-hit-list viability, we must remember: Chretien owned the riding's predecessors largely by scrappily preempting what otherwise might have been predilections t/w the Creditiste/Duplessiste. So perhaps it's all just returning to what otherwise might have been natural form. Oh, and for the record, Herouxville is in this riding.
07 12 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're retracting our previous prediction from CPC to TCTC. Why is that? Well the most recent poll had the CPC plummet to third place and 17% in Quebec. The reason is largly due to the Bali conference on climate change. The point is that the Quebec elcetorate is VERY volatile and can and will change their mind very quickly towards the CPC. An honest and reliable prediction would have to wait until a date much closer to the election call. None the less, CPC still have a great shot at this riding.
07 10 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Ironic that CB would find calling this one for the CPC odd. It's one of the most logical postings that were recently made. People here didn't vote Liberal in the past, they voted Chretien. He was the PM and with it all sorts of goodies came into the riding. If you live in Quebec, your tax returns go through Shawinigan (plenty of government jobs there). You don't bite the hand that feeds you. Now that the hand has retired, their loyalties went in the same direction as other similar, neighbouring ridings. This is akin to Sherebrooke when Charest made the jump to provincial politics. Well the way things are now, some neighbouring ridings (such as Portneuf)have already shifted towards the CPC (yes we know Arthur is an independant, but he's pseudo CPC) and others still are likely to fall in the upcoming election. Very good chance for a CPC pick up.
07 10 20 C B
I admit that it feels odd predicting a Conservative win in Chretien's riding, but given how ‘small’ the margin of victory was for the Bloc in '06, I would be shocked if anyone but the Tories won. With their current numbers in Quebec (which, again, include Montreal), the Conservatives are surely leading in rural Quebec. If these numbers hold, and there is no reason to believe that they won't right now, this one should be blue on election night.
07 04 09 Brian Appel
I'm going to step up and predict a Conservative grab of Chretien's old riding. It's a rural, working-class riding with a lot of nationalist sentiment, but not so much that Harper's vision wouldn't appease them as well. Plus, the ADQ did pretty good here. At this point, I don't think ‘da boss’ could even win this riding back for the Liberals.
07 03 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
With the ADQ gains in the regions during the provincial election, including in this region, isn't it a little presumptuous to be awarding this riding to the BQ so early? Until we are actually in an election and we know for sure who all the players are, many rural Quebec ridings are wild cards and may go CPC.

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