| ||08 10 10
|Bachand is not going to win here according to a new poll. Perhaps voters didn't like his opportunistic attempt to join a party he had just denounced only a couple of years ago.|
| ||08 10 10
|Bachand trails the Bloc by 38 points in the SEGMA poll released today. Easy Bloc hold.|
| ||08 10 10
|Sondage Segma mené du 4 au 8 octobre (marge d'erreur: 4,4%):|
Défaite de Bachand, autre victoire pour Serge Cardin.
| ||08 10 10
|Serge Cardin will win again with about 15,000 votes of majority in Sherbrooke, and the Conservative have virtualy no chance to win in Sherbrooke. If you think otherwise, then you don't know Sherbrooke since long enough.|
Also note that the Conservative party of the time of Jean Charest and today Conservative party share very little in common except the name.
Now, what will be quite interesting is to see who will be second. I believe It will be a much closer race between the Conservatives and the NDP with Yves Mondoux than most people are expecting.
This can in part be explained because there is no Green party candidate for this ridding, and that most of them will vote for anything but Conservative, and because NDP is probably the 2nd best option for most of them.
| ||08 10 03
||A B |
|I am surprised to see this riding classified as BQ. I think sherbrooke is highly likely to be attracted to vote for this personality who could even become a minister in a government which will obviously be conservative. BQ is certainly not out but this will be a close fight because of ‘star power’. |
| ||08 09 14
|This seems likely to be a seat the Bloc holds onto, although with ‘star’ candidates for the Conservatives and the NDP expect to see an interesting campaign here. |
But Cardin has won convincingly (more than 2-1) the last two elections, and he is probably in good bet for re-election.
Bachand who is running for the Conservatives is a former PC MP who left after the party merger, now lured back into the Harper fold. However, he represented a different riding nearby, and it not clear how much real name ID he will have in Sherbrooke.
The Conservatives are probably looking to L'Estrie and other rural parts of Quebec to take away Bloc seats. But it isn't clear that this urban riding is the best place for them to be hunting -- even when the ADQ was performing well in the last provincial election, the could only manage a distant 3rd with 17% in the Sherbrooke riding (which makes up the majority of this riding). Although that poor showing may reflect the fact that the MNA for this riding is Premier (and former PC leader) Jean Charest, who narrowed held the seat against a strong PQ challenge. However, Charest held this seat as a PC member, and going back to the 1970s the Socreds were competitive here, so there may be an underlying conservative vote.
The NDP candidate is former Quebec TV host Yves Mondoux (I.D. Maison and Complètement Marteau), who is also an environmental activist. I don't know what capacity the NDP has to mount a serious campaign in Sherbrooke - they certainly never have before even remotely competitive here before (unless you want to count an 11% distant 3rd place in 1988), so it would be dependent completely on the personal attraction of Mondoux -- that seems like a stretch.
I'd expect the NDP vote to improve over their 4th place 8% in 2006, but the odds against making this another Outremount are rather remote unless the Conservatives take a huge chunk of the Bloc vote, both universities heavily vote NDP (not a Quebec tradition), and Mondoux is able to take a ton of progressive-leaning Bloc voters and past Liberal and Green voters. Maybe in a by-election for an open seat a star candidate could change the math that much, but probably is not going to happen in an October federal election.
| ||08 09 12
|Serge Cardin is a very popular and competent MP. Strong efforts have been made in the past to unseat him and they all failed.|
If the Conservatives believe that Andre Bachand will help them to win this riding they are completely mistaken.
The fact is that Bachand has zero credibility due to his past criticisms of Stephen Harper and the PC/CA merger. It's one thing to make some criticisms but he really went out of his way to do damage. He once said that Harper had ‘all the charisma of a picnic table’ and he even endorsed the Liberals in 2004 and 2006...
Easy Bloc win here.
| ||08 09 11
|Bloc's Serge Cardin to win.|
Conservative got former Richmond-Arthabaska MP Andre Bachand to run. He refused to run in 2004, he asked people to support the Liberal candidate and he called Harper an extremist with an hidden agenda.
NDP organizers are calling Sherbrooke their ‘Outremont #2.’ I doubt it. Bloc or Tory to win, depending on provincial momentum; NDP most likely 3rd with the Liberal a distant 4th.
| ||08 09 11
|With some surprise i see that Andre Bachand is running here for the CPC, although he isn?t going to be running in the seat that he won for the PCs. Might be a surprise gain, although he has quite the mountain to climb. Looks better on the party to attract the only PC candidate to win in Quebec in 97 and 2000.|
| ||08 09 10
|The NDP in Sherbrooke had nominated a francophone sociology professor who teaches at Bishop's University (a near-by English university) but she has since dropped for personal reasons. She has been replaced by someone I believe is a francophone TV personality. I have to wonder if the NDP intervened to get a higher profile candidate. What this all means is I think that Sherbrooke is going to be a three-way race between the Bloc, Tories and NDP, or at least the NDP is going to try to make it that way.|
| ||08 09 10
|‘A union of red tories and rednecks’ was what Andre Bachand called the new Conservative Party when it formed. He said some other nasty things about Harper too, but I guess it's all moot now that he's Stephen Harper's new best friend. No point in even guessing, though, since I don't even think Jean Charest could win back his old riding from the Bloc again.|
| ||08 09 06
||mathieu Gaudreault |
|André Bachand , un ex conservateur s'y présente, il est appuyé par Jean Charest mais reste à savoir coment ce parachuté s,en tirera. Oublions pas que Jean Charest a été déclaré élu 45 minutes après avoir gagné l'élection de mars 2007(minoritaire).|
| ||08 03 11
|In 1993, this was the only Tory seat remaining in a vast sea of Bloc; now, Sherbrooke could conceivably become the only Bloc seat remaining in a vast sea of Tory. And almost the only way to defeat Serge Cardin might be if Jean Charest prodigal-sons himself back to being the CPC--not Liberal; CPC--candidate.|
| ||07 04 06
|I don't think this should be handed over to the Bloc so easily. If you pool the Charest/ADQ vote together, it becomes a rather convincing win over the Parti Queebcois on the provincial level. |
If the Tories can get a strong candidate, Cardin may be vulnerable. It may even be possible that M. Cardin may see the handwriting on the wall.
the landscape has changed greatly. the old separatist/federalist paradigm seems to be breaking down, and the old coalitions that would rally people of all political stripes around one party or another based on the ‘Question nationale’ seems to be rather unfashionable these days.
| ||07 03 28
|Chalk Sherbrooke up for the BQ. If Premier Jean Charest could barely hold onto his own seat for the Quebec Grits (even being announced ‘defeated’ by media sources that jumped the gun), no candidate can win this for any other party. Bloc hold.|