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Projet D'Élection Prévision

élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

Bloc Québécois
Faille, Meili
Fortier, Michael M.
New Democratic
Héroux-Legault, Maxime
Legault, Brigitte
Massenet, Jean-Yves

Meili Faille

2006 Résultats:
Meili Faille **
Marc Garneau
Stéphane Bourgon
Bert Markgraf
Pierre Pariseau-Legault

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 10 Paul Tremblay
I previously expected a narrow Bloc win. I no longer expect this race to be close. The Bloc is just too strong, and the Conservatives just too weak, in province-wide polls.
The last straw for many Vaudreuil-Soulanges voters was to see the mayor of Montreal endorse Fortier. Fortier just lost 2,000 votes with that kind of endorsement. Now it might be true that for Statistics Canada V-S is part of the Greater Montreal area, but in the eyes of V-S voters Montreal is, like Valleyfield or Hawkesbury, ‘somewhere else’.
The only interesting thing to watch now is who will finish in second place. My money would still be on Fortier for this dubious prize.
08 10 08 Joshua Zuckerman
On CTV's Question Period this weekend, Quebec analysts Jean Lapierre and Antonia Maioni were asked to predict the high-profile races in Quebec. They said:
1. Justin Trudeau probably can win in Papineau
2. Marc Garneau will win in Westmount
3. The NDP will win Outremont (but only Outremont)
4. Michael Fortier has no chance here.
08 10 07 MH
At one point the CPC had high hopes of gaining seats in Quebec. With a week to go before the election, these hopes are almost sure to be dashed. The party will be happy to hold on to the seats won in 2006 and may lose a couple. The Bloc will hold V-S easily. Barring some totally unforeseen event(s), therefore, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will continue in that position after October 14, but he will have lost his two most competent ministers, David Emerson through resignation and Mr Fortier through electoral defeat. It will be interesting to see whether Mr Harper will re-appoint Mr Fortier to the Senate in order to keep him in the cabinet.
08 09 30 J.F. Breton
Ça ne va pas très bien pour Fortier. Selon un sondage Segma, Faille obtient 49 % des intentions de vote après répartition proportionnelle des indécis, alors que Michael Fortier ne récolte que 21 % des appuis, soit seulement six points de pourcentage de plus que la candidate libérale Brigitte Legault. Ça sent la réélection du Bloc.
08 09 30 binriso
Fortier is getting killed in his riding according to a local poll
BQ 49%
CPC 21%
(Other parties not mentioned, but relatively insignificant since theres only about 30% of the vote left and theyre all somewhere between 5-15%).
I didnt really think he could win anyways, even if they win 25 seats in Quebec, this probably isnt one of them.
08 09 30 cd
Just as a follow-up, today's La Presse reported a poll in Vaudreuil-Soulanges, showing 49% for the Bloc, 21% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Liberals. It had a small sample size of 500 people, but a 28% spread is well outside any margin of error even for such a small poll. It should remove most doubt about which way this riding is going.
08 09 25 R.O.
Although this riding was won by the bloc in the last 2 federal elections the fact Michael Fortier is running here this election could be enough to change that. Well I doubt the conservatives will win many other seats in the montreal area as there base of quebec support is more in quebec city area. The fact Fortier is becoming so high profile and in cabinet could be enough to allow him to win here. I also think its clear the conservatives will gain seats in quebec this election its just a matter of where as there polling numbers are much higher than before and blocs numbers lower than last election. Although polls show a very close race I admit but still it remains unlikely the bloc can win everything they won last time now that race is close.
08 09 23 Joey Joe Joe
Garneau's Liberal star has moved to other skys and left the Conservatives a riding to pickup if the Bloc falls far enough. Fortier would be the Conservatives senior minister for the province so that should help his run here.
08 09 15 Al
The voters here know that the Conservative Party will win the general election and whether or not it is majority or minority (I think the latter), Michael Fortier will be in cabinet if elected. This riding will therefore choose to be represented by someone they know will be a cabinet minister and the CPC will pick up another seat here.
08 09 15 cd
The Bloc won this riding by a comfortable margin last time; they are lower in the polls now, but not by enough to make a difference in this riding. The incumbent seems to be pretty popular personally.
Mr. Fortier needs to considerably improve on his party's third place showing in 2006 to win. He cannot count on all Liberal votes in 2006 coming his way-- this riding borders the West Island and many of its anglophones are very loyal Liberal voters. I can see Fortier coming in second because his campaign has been highly visible and the Liberals have fielded a candidate with no name recognition.
08 09 13 rebel
With the Conservatives running neck and neck with the Bloq (in Quebec based polls) and leading outside of Montreal, this is a perfect seat for the Conservatives to win. The Liberal vote for Garneau will dwindle as he is running in Westmount, just as that of the Block will also bleed to the Conservatives. Add to that the promise (virtual certainty) that Fortier will return to Cabinet would be a powerful inducement for the riding to vote bleu...
08 09 08 W Knapp
je pense que Fortier va gagner ce comté ... un peu de bis bis dans le camp bloquiste (conflits de personnalités); les fédéralistes vont voter avec ‘le gagnant’ & non ‘le perdant’ tel que prévu par le média.
la bloquiste est aimée par plusieurs, elle est travaillant, mais elle s'est donnée une ‘clique’ qui va nuire a ses chances... Fortier travaille le comté depuis un an ou deux en plus...
08 09 08 Paul Tremblay
MB is incredibly misinformed.
Brigitte Legault is NOT ‘extremely well-connected in the community’. Nobody in the riding, except for political junkies and (possibly) those who knew her when she was in high school and still live here, knows her.
The real deal is that Ms. Legault wanted to be the Liberal candidate in the Outremont by-election.
But even with Stephane Dion's plan to nominate as many female candidates as possible... her candidacy was rejected as it was decided that she wouldn't be the candidate in that riding. Why was she rejected ? Could it be that while the Liberals want to present Ms. Legault as a ‘rising star’, they actually consider her as an intellectual lightweight ? I know that was the impression I got when I heard her on Gilles Proulx's radio show a few months ago.
All of this basically means that Vaudreuil-Soulanges is a consolation prize for her. And this is supposed to impress local voters ?
Ms. Legault somehow apparently believes that developing the Soulanges canal is a key issue that would allow her to get elected.
The terrible truth is that while everybody in the riding would like this project to go ahead, so many empty promises have been made in the past that the whole issue is now a laughingstock in the riding. It's one thing to make promises about the Soulanges canal but when a candidate sees this as one of only two key issues it shows how disconnected from the voters that candidate is.
Growing up in the riding means absolutely nothing if you decide to move somewhere else when you become an adult. Ms. Legault currently lives in Montreal. I guess that when your priority for many months is to go to New Hampshire, New York and Texas to work for a certain (now former) American presidential candidate who reminds everyone of their first wife, you tend to become somewhat misinformed about the real issues this side of the border.
The fact of the matter is that there are two serious candidates in Vaudreuil-Soulanges and Ms. Legault is not one of them.
I still expect at this point Meili Faille to win the riding against Michael Fortier, due to her personal popularity with local voters, although it will be a very close race.
This being said, yesterday evening on the local CTV news a brief mention was made about Vaudreuil-Soulanges, it was pointed out that the Bloc and the Conservatives are tied in Quebec and that change might be coming. Many Fortier signs on Harwood Blvd. in Dorion were shown, and also a few Bloc signs. Some local voters were shown making positive comments about Stephen Harper. No mention whatsoever was made about Ms. Legault and no Liberal signs were shown. If the English-language media continues to get the word out in such a fashion that voters have to vote Conservative if they want to get rid of the Bloc outside of Montreal, Anglophones could well get the message and help Fortier to win.
08 08 30 Suaveman
MB's full of it. Legault is a rookie. Grits are relegated to third place here and the real story will be Fortier (who's featured in the new Qu?bec-styled Tory TV ad) vs. Faille (one the Bloc's most talented MPs). TCTC down to E-day.
08 08 28 MB
It seems that the Liberals have nominated Brigitte Legault, the VP Francophone and someone extremely well-connected in the community. On the basis of this, and Federalist-leanings, a reasonable vote-share for previous candidate Marc Garneau, and the declining Bloc, I will call this one a tentative Liberal pickup.
08 06 17 Initial
Michael M. Fortier is actually having a great deal of problems raising money from the riding. Take a look at the 1000-1100$ range contributions (none from the riding! This is public information on Elections Canada!) Where are the contributions from his own executive!).
08 06 02 T.V.
This is the kind of riding that is not very friendly for parachute candidates. It really was a bizarre choice for Marc Garneau, too. In a big city riding, nobody really cares if you live five seats over. You can comfortably represent a suburban seat while living downtown, and vice versa. In a place like Vaudreuil-Soulanges, people want a representative who comes from their area and understands their concerns. That's not Fortier, who comes across as arrogant and aloof.
Still, it's a traditionally federalist-leaning seat and a Bloc MP is a bit of an awkward fit. If the Tories are doing very well in Quebec and the Liberal vote collapses, they have a chance.
08 01 26 A.S.
Fortier's chances probably depend a touch upon Vaudreuil-Soulanges being a ‘unique’ kind of riding in the same way that Lawrence Cannon's Pontiac is ‘unique’--and in both cases, the kissing-neighbour proximity to CPC-loving Rural Eastern Ontario must provide some psychological boost. And like Cannon--though without Cannon's elected provincial experience--Fortier can conceivably score it while virtually no other nearby Quebec seat follows suit. Then again, perhaps that was also Marc Garneau's logic for running here for the Grits in 2006. And, Grit or Tory, it all pivots upon the idea of this being the classic Bloc seat that's only Bloc because of the accidental circumstance of the sponsorship scandal...
07 10 20 C B
This is traditionally a marginally federalist riding. The Bloc result from last election seems to be a protest vote against the Liberals and a slight apprehension to vote Tory. Without a star candidate again (Garneau is running in Montreal now), expect voters to flock to Fortier to oust the Bloc incumbent. The Conservatives have proven themselves to Quebecers and that apprehension seems to be all but gone now. The voters here will want a representative at the cabinet table, which is all but guaranteed. Fortier by 3,000-5,000 votes.
07 10 08 binriso
Perhaps a little bit too anxious in my last prediction. It will be pretty close, the CPC only getting 19% here last time seems like it is no sure thing for them to win here despite their candidate, while the BQ win was not all that convincing as they only had about 43% of the vote. The Liberals got about 28% and even though the by-elections went poorly, I cant see them dropping a whole lot below that number. That leaves the NDP and Greens at about 5% each, theyll probably both gain 1%, maybe 2-3% for the NDP. As of right now, Id say the BQ has the advantage actually. Federalist vote splitting will no doubt occur and the BQ will probably slide in with a weak result(mid 30s). Still i believe its now TCTC.
07 10 05 Paul Tremblay
Speaking here as a longtime resident of the riding...
Michael Fortier is trying to buy his way to victory with various financial announcements in the riding, it does address the perception that many voters have here about being forgotten by both governments, but at the same time it also gives an impression of being somewhat desperate. Fortier has a very strong organisation, make no mistake, he is really determined to win the riding. Problem is, he's not from the riding...
Fortier claimed in a local newspaper that people see him as the real MP for Vaudreuil-Soulanges, it is true to some extent but at the same time there are many people who believe he is trying to unjustly usurp the role of Ms. Faille, who has a degree of personal popularity not unlike what Yvon Godin has in Acadie-Bathurst (although on a smaller scale). Usually the PQ/BQ is always five to seven points below the provincial average, but the Bloc did better than the average here in 2006. There's a reason for this...
Star candidacies have a history of not being successful here. Fact is that in 2006, Marc Garneau failed to bring to the Liberals a single vote that they wouldn't have gotten had they presented someone else, this can be verified on the basis of previous results compared to the provincial average -- this is especially notable considering the fact that in 2006 the Conservatives presented a paper candidate who made no effort whatsoever to win. The same can be said about Marc Laviolette for the Parti Quebecois in the 2007 provincial vote -- and again this is notable since the incumbent MNA was unpopular, and the ADQ candidate was basically a paper candidate.
The riding is more federalist than what you would expect based on demographics (i.e. francophones vs. anglophones) and federalists here are preoccupied about vote-splitting, word on the street is that many Liberals are considering to vote for Fortier just for the sake of getting rid of the Bloc, but at the same time 25 % of voters are Anglophones, many of whom tend to vote Liberal no matter what, so...
I expect a very close race. Ms. Faille will keep most of her 2006 vote. Mr. Fortier will keep the 2006 Conservative vote and steal a good portion of the Liberal vote, but he will come up short and Meili Faille will win. Unfortunately. At least a BQ win will make her unavailable in the next provincial election...
07 09 30 Daniel
With the current state of the Liberal Party in Quebec, they'll be lucky to win back the marginal Bloc seats in Montreal that they lost in 2006 (not to mention avoid losing any MORE ground in Montreal); seats like Vaudreuil-Soulanges won't even be within reach. I doubt that too many star candidates will be making themselves available to Dion, after the way certain (former) potential candidates have been treated (Marc Garneau and the mayor of Brossard come immediately to mind).
The NDP may have benefited from the collapsing Bloc vote in nearby Montreal, but Vaudreuil-Soulanges isn't Montreal. With Michael Fortier running here for the CPC, and the relative Tory strength / Bloc decline among francophones that has been tracked in poll after poll, I don't think I'm going out on a limb when I say that the Conservatives will probably walk away with this seat on election night.
07 09 20 N
Here is a wild prediction... Bert Markgraf is not going to run this time around. I predict that Jack Layton and his new Quebec deputy will find a strong candidate for this riding and that will put this riding into play. The race will become a 4 way race. I think Faille has the most likeable personality in the riding. The liberals haven't chosen their candidate yet. Senator Fortier is a strong contender. But this isn't really conservative country nor is it strictly sovereignist. In short it is a hard riding to pin down and is in a state of continual flux. Should the NDP choose a strong campaigner who can organize a good base here I believe they have a chance of carrying it. Tom Mulcair's win in Outrenmont shows that it is possible, the NDP is a player in Quebec. I would watch this riding in the coming months.
07 06 19
Si ce comté est passé au Bloc en 2004 et en 2006, c'est à cause de la division du vote fédéraliste causée par un vote de protestation contre le Parti libéral.
Cette année, ça ne se reproduira pas une troisième fois. Vaudreuil-Soulanges n'a jamais été souverainiste, mais ne semble pas prêt à refaire confiance au libéraux fédéraux, surtout avec Dion à sa tête.
Sans compter, que le ministre-sénateur Micheal Fortier s'y présente pour avoir un siège aux Communes et il est populaire au Québec.
Victoire des Conservateurs! La deuxième place se jouera entre le Bloc et les libéraux.
07 06 07 binriso
A tight Liberal win here in a three-way race. The BQ are alot lower than 43% of last election with the highest poll for them being 40% and some being as low as 24%. Im sure that Dion and the Liberals will find a strong candidate here to run against Fortier and Faille and the CPC has alot further to catch up than the Liberals do. It'll be close but this is one of a few ridings going to go back red around Montreal and South Western Quebec.
07 04 25 M.C.
Victoire conservatrice dans Vaudreuil/Soulanges??? De la pure foutaise!! Le ministre non élu Michael Fortier non seulement n'a pas eu le courage de se présenter dans les dernières élections complémentaires de l'automne dernier mais en plus il exploite les failles de la soi-disante loi sur la responsabilité pour accorder un juteux contrat de 400 millions de dollars à ses p'tits amis. Ce faisant, il n'a même pas eu l'audace ni le courage d'admettre qu'il est potentiellement dans une situation de conflits d'intéret!!! Non pas sans parler du fait que M. Fortier s'est fait traiter de ‘patroneux’ par son collègue ministre extremiste de droite, Maxime Bernier, dans le dossier de l'aéronautique! M. Harper a beau precher la responsabilité mais le fait est que ses conservateurs-alliancistes de droite profitent des failles de sa loi sur la responsabilité pour privilégier leurs amis!!! De plus, Lucie Charlebois et Yvon Marcoux du PLQ ont été réelus le 26 mars dernier. Donc, il ne fait aucun doute que le Parti Libéral du Canada va reprendre très facilement le comté de Vaudreuil/Soulanges, avec près de 60% des suffrages!
07 04 09 Brian Appel
I have no idea why this riding ever went Bloc. People here voted overwhelmingly against sovereignty in '95, and the only reason it didn't come flying back to the Liberals in 2006 is because Garneau ran what could easily have been one of the worst campaigns for a riding candidate in the history of Canadian elections. This is a heavily federalist riding with a large anglophone population. Fortier will win this seat without much of a fight and FINALLY get a seat in Parliament.
07 04 09 JC
Controversy has erupted in this riding over Michael Fortier using his website to make it look like he is the actual representative for this riding, personally I think Fortier won't win because people view him as a political hack, however he will pull in a lot of the vote but the federalists will split between him and the Liberals and it will allow the Bloc to win.
07 04 07 Stéphane Gaudet
C'est loin d'être sûr, mais je me risque déjà à prédire une victoire conservatrice pour le ministre Michael Fortier dans cette circonscription fédéraliste, pas du tout souverainiste, qui a élu le Bloc sur division du vote fédéraliste.
Le Bloc a profité des faiblesses de l'adversaire libéral, soit le scandale des commandites et les bourdes du candidat-vedette Marc Garneau. Deux tares qui n'entachent pas les conservateurs. Le vote fédéraliste devrait se ranger derrière Fortier assez facilement, pavant ainsi la voie à une victoire conservatrice dans le comté.
07 04 06 Smok Wawelski
Having lived there for a time, and having run in 1993 as a candidate, I can say that I know this riding and watch it with great interest. The last two elections were personal heartbreaks watching separatists take advantage of split federalist votes. In both the Vaudreuil and soulanges sections, provincially, the Liberals and ADQ were 1 & 2 respectively.
I think the Tories have a good chance of bringing Pierre H. Cadieux's old seat back into the fold.
the landscape has changed greatly. the old separatist/federalist paradigm seems to be breaking down, and the old coalitions that would rally people of all political stripes around one party or another based on the ‘Question nationale’ seems to be rather unfashionable these days.
I think that this time, Meili Faille's luck will finally run out. And not a moment too soon.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Most likely will go Bloc Quebecois, but with the sponsorship scandal over, the Liberals could re-take it if they choose a strong candidate as this did go Liberal prior to 2004. Michael Fortier is definitely toast. Him and David Emerson I can say with pretty much certainty will not be returning to cabinet again unless Harper appoints them to the senate again, which would look really bad.
07 03 28 Smok Wawelski
I don't know why this is marked as a Bloc hold especially after the drubbing the PQ took in the provincial election in Vaudreuil and Soulanges ridings... The ADQ finished a strong second in both, and add to the mix the fact that the Tories are running Cabmin Michael Fortier, and will provide him will all the resources he needs, I think this one should be called for the Tories, who have a history of electing MPs in the riding (Pierre H. Cadieux, the most recent) or at the very least moved into the TCTC column.
While meli Faille is personally popular, with the PQ and Bloc in steep decline, i don't see how she will hold on.
07 03 22 JD
Le nouveau parti democratique va faire une elargissement dans la prochaine election ici. Les choix de leur candidats, Mr. Nicholls de St-Lazare ou l'autre candidat en pincourt ce sont des forts cadidats pour le development durable et le development de l'economie saine a cet region. Mr. Nicholls a une maitrise dans l'architecture de paysage et il peut parler pour le region. Mr. Nicholls est d'un famille bilan alors ces ancetres en Quebec et dans le region sont assez etabli. Je pense que c'est possible qu'il gagnera simplement parce que Mr. Fortier n'identifi pas tres fort avec les fermiers du region.

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