Prediction Changed
12:19 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ghaddar, Jamilé
New Democratic
Guyatt, Gordon
MacFarlane-VanderBeek, Arlene
Ormond, Peter
Sweet, David

David Sweet

2006 Result:
David Sweet
Russ Powers **
Gordon Guyatt
David Januczkowski
Ben Cowie
Jamilé Ghaddar

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 08 Ancastarian
Well, with only days left in the campaign, I have to hand this one to Sweet. Despite a slip in Conservative numbers, there are a variety of factors working here to put Sweet back on top. 1) He runs a well organized, well funded campaign and you can be will have alot of volunteers to get his vote out, especially in his hometown of Ancaster, where voter turnout is always high. 2) Vanderbeek is a weak candidate for the Liberals, and has run a weak campaign. outside of fortress Dundas for the Liberals don't expect them to be picking up votes elsewhere. 3) Gordon Guyatt has run a solid campaign (as he typically does). Couple this with a strong NDP national campaign and you will see he will probably pick up some votes from the Liberals. 4) My last point is the Green candidate has run a good campaign (by green standards) and that could potentially weaken the liberals. 5) Lastly, remember this riding has a history of going Conservative. Sure Bryden held it from 1993, and the riding boundary changes (losing Aldershot) hurt the tories, but I still can't see Anyone But Sweet taking it (no pun intended).
08 10 08 Al R
From What I understand (Andrew Dreschel's Writings) The Liberal Candidate got trashed, the Green Party candidate rocked and Sweet held his own in the debate. I predict that Gord Guyatt keeps getting votes, Sweet gains a few from people who appreciate his good constituency work, looses a few who just don't like the Conservatives anymore, and the Liberal girl looses votes to Peter Ormond. Just as a little curio; At the Ancaster Fair the biggest presence was Peter Ormond's campaign and the Sweet's. Vanderbeek's and Guyatt's were far far behind.
08 10 04 ob
the riding has been long time traditional liberal-it has only been Chretien/Martin split as well as advertising liberal scandal which drove vote to conservatives---this time around many people got hurt by income trust debacle by Flaherty and Harper and also many are getting very uneasy with Harper association with US and neglect of Ontario-the riding is far from clear conservative and can go back to liberal fold-----ob
08 09 27
Filter, my McMaster point was simple math. The 300 odd conservative votes Sweet receives at Redeemer will be more than outweighed by the Liberal and NDP vote at Mac. Even if 90% of the students haul their laundry home every weekend, the remaining ten percent would be enough. In fact, those that remain, so-called ‘professional students’ are more likely to vote left than right whereas the commuters may vote conservative depending on their place of origin.
As for Waterdown, upper middle class professionals tend to vote Liberal but I think the residents are more diverse than that. Given the lower house prices, many blue collar or lower middle class many have moved there from Halton or Peel. The residents have re-elected McCarthy as their left of center Hamilton city councilor. The results here are unpredictable, however the more urban an area becomes the greater chance they vote liberal.
But per my first post, the winner needs to win Ancaster and the Liberals tepid campaign suggests Sweet is nearing the podium. On an other note, Russ Powers hardly had time to make himself comfortable in Ottawa to do any serious work, however, in Dundas he has and continues to work hard on city council. I say this as someone who always voted for his opponents. The local liberal campaign appears to be run by the same Dundas residents who ran Powers' campaign and they still haven't realized that it takes more to win the riding than it does for a liberal to win in Dundas ie show up.
08 09 24 Filter out the noise
hrw: I really have no understanding where your ‘analysis’ is coming from. Quite honestly it is completely off-base. McMaster in Westdale will NOT off-set the Redeemer vote. Mac is widely known as the ‘suitcase’ university; the students have no attachment to the city of Hamilton. They come to school, do their studying and take off as quickly as possible every weekend that they can.
Sweet will win because he has busted his hump behind the scenes his whole time, working his butt for his community. A total opposite from Russ Powers, who did as little as possible for his constituents. He is not a glamout grabber, just a hard worker. Not my ideal candidate, but, the best candidate for the electorate in his area.
As for the not knowing the new Waterdoewn populace, well they are quite well known. Upper middle class profesionals who are in the younger age brackets.
The only thing you hot correct is the hard core support for Guyatt. Got to give that man credit, he never (or doesn't know when)gives up.
08 09 24 Ontariocentric
notes from the all-candidates debate 09/23/08 at McMaster University:
1. MacFarland-Vanderbeek (LIB) choked on many of the questions, questions that weren't even that difficult. She appeared very uncomfortable giving her answers, and kept them short and generic. She reitered the ‘greener, richer, fairer Canada’ [Dion] line more than once. Received a tepid applause.
2. Dr. Guyatt (NDP) received the most thunderous applause after his final remarks, showing that he's still probably gonna take Westdale. He's done this a few times now (been the NDP nominee), and he appeared comfortable.
3. Ormond (Green) also appeared comfortable. Has the ‘regular guy’ quality, knows that smiling pays off. The Green Party campaign in this riding looks far better organized than in the past.
4. Sweet (incumbent-CONS) looked like the Ottawa type. Was prepared, didn't stumble, appeared at ease. For this audience (mostly students) he talked about the Conservative project to clean up Randal's Reef (toxic zone in Burlington Bay), as well as their party's committment to students (which nobody in the audience appeared to buy), and he wasn't afraid to blow some smoke at us (‘you're the best and brightest). He was the only candidate that did not express support for decriminalizing marijuana, instead talking about all the road-side deaths associated with being high while driving.
I think Mr. Sweet will keep his seat this side around because the Liberals are running such a weak candidate. Perhaps Ted McMeekin may be the Liberal's only hope the next election. While the Greens and the NDP are running good calibre candidates in this riding, the left vote is far too split for the Conservatives to lose this one.
08 09 06 hrw
Redeemer is in Ancaster not Dundas. McMaster in Westdale will offset the conservatism at Redeemer. The riding always splits three ways and the movement to and from the three will determine the winner. Rural Flamborough which is more libertarian than conservative may be annoyed with an unnecessary election call and stay home, vote green or liberal. The new growth in Waterdown creates a new pool of voters who aren't nearly as known as the other areas. The liberals/ndp should do better there than the conservatives. NDP voters are intensely loyal to Guyatt and hence the liberals will only peel off a small percentage with strategic voting If all Sweet can attract is the social conservatives it won't be enough, he will need to attract the economic conservatives in Ancaster and there's no guarantee they won't turn back to the Liberals as they have done in the past.
08 08 31 rebel
Across Ontario, there is virtually no trend towards the Conservatives (except in the recent Decima poll showing a tight race). Ipsos Reid and Nanos give the Liberals a comfortable lead and hence little liklihood of change.
I give this riding back to the Conservatives and offer a novel reason for doing so...the voters of Redeemer University in Dundas are the most Conservative voters at any academic institution in Canada. In their first federal election in 2006, they voted 293 to 11 with an astonishing 98% turnout. The Liberals will have to win quite a few polls to counter this institution's Conservative majority. In October these voters will be fully enumerated and happy to vote Conservative decisively.
08 06 02 T.V.
This riding has exception demographics, with rural, suburban, small town, and large urban/academic communities all in one riding. The combination makes it a perfect swing riding, with the suburbanites deciding whether the seat will go Liberal or Tory. This seat should prove to be a pretty accurate bellweather. Also of note is the large NDP base of support. They had an exceptional year in Hamilton last time, and if enough of them switch to the Liberals next time, it could swing the election.
08 05 20 Live Link
Hannah Montana, I'm not sure where you come up with this stuff.
You state:
1) Sweet will win EVERY poll in Dundas, Ancaster, Flamborough
2) The NDP will win EVERY poll in Westdale
3) The best the local Liberals can do is muster a 2nd place finish in every poll
My god, where do you come up with this farcicle garbage?
Let's examine the facts:
1) If Sweet were capable of winning every poll in Ancaster, Dundas, and Flamborough, why was he unable to do so last time?
2) Check the demographic composition of the riding. If you think the Christians will carry him to victory in every poll, you're dreaming. There simply aren't enough of him. This isn't an overly religious riding, despite what you may believe in your dream world.
3) Last provincial election, the Liberals won every single poll in Westdale, leaving the NDP in the dust. Don't expect a massive swing backwards. Guyatt was unable to win every poll in Westdale last time. What makes you think he can do so this time.
4) The Liberal candidate is a former Dundas town councillor with deep roots in the community. If anyone is winning Dundas, its her.
5) Back onto Westdale. Despite what you may believe, the McMaster students are not left-wing hardcore NDPers. In fact, most come from the GTA (Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, etc) where the Liberals are strong and Liberal voting habits are entrenched. Why do you think the Libs do so well in Westdale nearly every single election? Plus, the NDP are nearly invisible on campus. Only the campus Liberal and Conservative club's have a presence.
You need to read a newspaper of something. Your punditry is way off. But, thanks for trying.
This is riding is indeed to close to call. With sponsorship and a strong national campaign, David Sweet wasn't able to deliver a knock out blow to the Liberals in this riding. He's been working very hard over the last two years, going to nearly every community event he can, so he should have a good showing this time as well. The ADFW Liberals are organized they proved last provincial election. They know how to bring a win home. We'll have to wait to see what they do. The presence of Gordon Guyatt, a popular local doctor, as the NDP candidate should be disconcerting to the Libs. He takes votes away from them and lets the Tories run up the middle.
08 05 12 Hannah Montana
David Sweet didn't earn the name 'Pastor Sweet’ for nothing. He is one of the most devoted old time Christians in the Conservative caucus. The Sweet family has very deep roots in the church community in Flamborough, Ancaster and Dundas and thanks to the religious vote and the farm vote, Sweet will win every poll in those three towns. The NDP will win every poll in the very left wing Westdale area that surrounds Mac U but will finish a weak third because the Liberals will end up second in the small towns and second in Westdale. Pastor Sweet will have even a bigger win in this riding than he had in 2006.
08 04 05 I'm Always Right
If former Liberal MP Russ Powers had agreed to run here again then the Liberals might have made a race of it but Powers was smart enough to forget about federal politics and instead made a safe landing as he got himself elected to Hamilton City council. Without Powers, the Liberals are going to take an awful beating. I'd look for the Green Party to make pretty good gains in this riding too.
08 04 03 Stevo
This is hilarious! Ancaster and Dundas are ?rural, small town??? Do I'm Always Right/Peg Leg/Curley/(insert next in the series of nicknames) also believe that Markham and Thornhill are ?rural, small-town?? Since they, like Dundas and Ancaster, are smaller, suburban municipalities on the outskirts of a much larger urban centre.
Anyway, as a McMaster Alum, I certainly know this riding well. Mac students are as apathetic as any others, and those that ARE politically aware often vote in their home ridings (McMaster is not a commuter school, but the bulk of the students are from Southern Ontario so the distance to return home to vote is usually not very long).
The folks in Ancaster, as is often the case, are really the ones who will decide the outcome here and they took a chance on the Tories in 2006. I really don't see any reason to think that they'll switch next time around. After all, the Conservative candidate ran in 2004 as well and his religiosity was already well known. But this being such a patchwork riding, I'll withold a prediction for now.
08 03 22 Curley, Larry and Moe
This riding has two sections to it that couldn't be more different. There's about 30 per cent of the riding that is urban, west end Hamilton.
Here the NDP and the Liberals fight it out and the Conservatives are in single digits. Then there's the rest of the riding made up of rural, small town Ancaster, Dundas and Flamborough. While there is some suburban parts to these towns they are still very small town, small c conseravative in their voting patterns. David Sweet will win every poll in this section of the riding while the NDP are in single digits and the Liberals are a very poor second. Tories we talk to tell us that Sweet is building an empire in this riding and it's hard to disagree with them.
Sweet will win easily.
08 03 13 Doug The Slug
For the record, I have nothing to do with anyone else posting opinions on this site. That being dealt with, I am surprised this riding hasn't been put in the Conservative column. The Liberals don't think they can win here as clearly demonstrated by their lack of a quality candidate. That's why Sweet will have a sweet victory, again.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
Former Liberal MP, Russ Powers ran (successfully) for Hamilton City Council in the fall of 2006 because he knew he has no chance of beating David Sweet in the next election. As the only Conservative in Hamilton, Sweet gets to represent the Harper government at all the big events in the Steel City and even gets to hand out a few cheques. All of this has made him even strong than he was in 2006. The Liberals don't have a chance in this riding. I predict Sweet wins by 6000 votes this time.
08 02 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Ummm...I'm Always Right/I'm Never Wrong/Quick Draw or whatever else you call yourself these days (BTW has anyone else noticed that Doug The Slug seems to echo I'm Always Right's sentiments? Just an observation...), where do you come off calling this riding a ‘rural, small town riding’? Have you ever been here? We both have either friends or family living in this riding, so we know it well. Maybe the Flamborough part fits your ‘definition’ of this riding, but the bulk of this riding is suburban Hamilton, including Westdale (read: the student ghetto of McMaster University). The voting trends in this riding are going to be akin to other 905 suburban ridings, not rural ones. Really if you look at Ancaster it looks quite a bit like places such as Burlington. In addition, you said in your posting for London-Fanshawe, ‘London has a large university and college vote and those people understand what strategic voting is all about.’ Why would the university vote from Mac not know of (and engage in) strategic voting as well like their counterparts at UWO? There's an ever greater NDP base here than in St Catharines and you've been hammering the strategic vote thing on that discussion board like crazy (not that we buy into it that they will vote strategically). We're not saying that the CPC won't win again, just that for the 66% of the riding that is non-Flamborough, CPC policies (read: economic) and the lack luster Liberal campaign won it for Sweet. If Sweet wins again, it'll be because of Harper's good governance, not beacuse of his family values and especially not because this riding is filled with ‘rednecks’.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
An old fashioned, bible belter like David Sweet is a perfect fit for this riding. The rednecks in this rural, small town riding love Sweet's family values rep and there's now way he'll lose. Don't take my word for it, just look at the Liberals. They have a throw away candidate this time instead of Russ Powers and everyone knows that provincial Liberal cabinet minister, McMeekin drains every single dollar he can from the riding leaving the federal party bankrupt. David Sweet will double his margin of victory this time.
08 02 22 Doug the Slug
Looks like a Conservative hold in this riding. The Liberals have a pathetic candidate and Sweet has bedrock support from the rural Ancaster, Dundas and Flamborough voters. As the only Conservate in Hamilton, Sweet has built up his profile over the last two years and will win easily this time. Hamilton Liberals will be busy trying to win Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East - Stoney Creek so they won't put any bodies or money into a loser riding like this one.
08 02 03 Ancastarian
I truly feel that David Sweet will hold this riding. If you look at the polls, David Sweet is firming up support in Ancaster. Additionally a friend of mine closely associated with the Liberals tell me their polls have Sweet’s numbers up in Westdale of all places! If this is correct then here is how I see it. Sweet will handily win Flamborough. He should do well again in Ancaster, and improve in Westdale! Couple this with a really strong local organization (you can’t fit in the guy’s office when an election is called because he musters so many volunteers), and you have a recipe for not only a Sweet victory, but an improvement over his numbers from last time. Add poor leadership manifest in the Federal Liberals, and with or without McMeekin hitting the pavement, Sweet has this one.
07 12 20 blakegoodman
As my hometown, Ancaster has always been the educated type of conservative, interested in neoliberal tax policies, small government and anything else that let us enjoy our mass-produced mini-mansions in relative escapist comfort. What the small-l liberals that I knew were never a fan of were so-con, poor-hating, religiously-motivated government policies. Take for example, the McMeekin byelection that was the beginning of the end of the Harris regime. While Ancaster may have handed in to Sweet last time, I am doubtful (at least hopefully so) that they will see him for what he really is. If not this time, then next. It is important to note that the Liberal vote increased by almost 3000 votes last time, while in most ridings it shrank, likely the sense of urgency that inspired such a huge growth in turnout will keep many voters home, returning this riding to its more Liberal equilibrium.
07 11 11 R.O.
not sure what effect Ted Mcmeekin's recent win here provincially will have but he is not the liberal candidate federally and there running someone new as i understand. out of the various hamilton ridings i'd say this isn't the most urban or liberal of them as it includes flamborough area but it also includes mcmaster university. anyways if david sweet could win this one last time running against a liberal mp i'd see no reason why he couldn't hold on to this one.
07 11 01 Mountaineer
MacFarland-Vanderbeek is a weak candidate but the libs can probably take this from Sweet. The reasons are as follows:
1) as the last commenter noted, Sweet voted against supply side management, and thusly lost the farm vote
2) Sweet has never shown up to any of the Hamilton-Wentworth Federatinon of Agriculture meetings, thus losing the rest of the sector
3) Sweet promised to get Cootes declared a national park and failed.
4) He's done nothing noteworthy since being elected
5) He has a low profile
6) Liberal McMeekin has been appointed to cabinet provincially, expect him to hit the pavement hard with MacFarland-Vanderbeek as he is the most popular Liberal in the city right now.
7) The Conservative flip-flop last Sweet lots of Seniors votes and tons of votes up in Ancaster
8) McMeekin won westdale, showing very clearly that the area is not an NDP bastion....or they at least vote strategically.
07 07 23 Steve V
David Sweet’s traditional support base in Flamborough is eroding because he voted against supply side management. The Hamilton-Wentworth Federation of Agriculture is getting angry with him. It doesn't matter who the Liberals run here, Sweet has already beaten himself by turning his back on his traditional support base. He's finished.
07 04 07 A.S.
As mentioned, a split-up as-goeth riding and one where, with enough wind in the Conservative sails, a particular candidate's so-con kookieness needn't matter anymore--and plenty might depend on who else runs, too. One stat to note: not only did the 04-to-06 voting electorate in Westdale explode (yes, Virginia, it turns out that the ‘student vote’ *does* factor in), but the result there was a net percentage swing *to* the Liberals, and *away* from the NDP--does socialism diminish with non-permanency of residence? (That was counterbalanced by rural NDP increases, a typical '04-vs-06 pattern in Ontario; also typical was that the advance poll NDP tally was lower relative to the final total in '06 than in '04. Just for the record.)
07 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Where Ancaster goes is where the riding goes! Thing is right now that would probably be right back into the arms of the CPC. However with an actual election occurring God-knows-when, conservative support may wane and we could see this riding flip. Right now, we say CPC hold but it's not carved in stone yet. Keep an eye on what the good people in Ancaster do. Makes ya feel powerful, eh Ancastarian?
07 03 30 Ancastarian
This is my home riding. Sweet should be able to hold onto it. He has incumbent advantage and he also possesses a very dedicated and highly skilled campaign team. The Conservatives are tied with the Liberals in the province (40% each), and as long as the Conservatives remain above 34% in Ontario Sweet should hold this one.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
A rather odd riding. You have Westdale which will go NDP, Dundas will go Liberal, while Flamborough will go Conservative. The real question is which way will Ancaster go since it usually goes whichever way the riding goes. On the one hand the Tories middle class suburban budget should be quite popular there, while on the other hand David Sweet's social conservatism isn't likely to sit well there.

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