Prediction Changed
3:16 PM 27/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Laird, David
Mellish, Marnie
Torsney, Paddy
Wallace, Mike

Mike Wallace

2006 Result:
Mike Wallace
Paddy Torsney **
David Laird
Rick Goldring

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 04 22 R.O.
Well its not that I think Paddy Tornsey has no chance here but spending a couple years working in Ottawa instead of Burlington likely did not help her chances. Combined with a weak and ineffective opposition lead by dion. Has allowed for Mike Wallace to be mp and get better known in the riding. I mean if she had ran for local city council and got elected and was getting a lot of local press that would help but I really do not see how spending a few years in dions office helped her chances especially in a competitive riding like this one. Although I hear she recently quit the job but it might be a little late.
08 04 09 Buy me a tater
Voters in Burlington had the chance to go to the polls twice in 2007 as this riding had a provincial by-election in February and the provincial general election in October. The Conservatives won it twice by big spreads even though their party was in opposition and not moving into government. With the federal Conservatives leading national polls and Mike Wallace now an established member of parliament, Paddy Torsney has no chance of regaining her seat in the parliament.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
After backing Dion in the leadership race, Paddy Torsney took a job in the leader's office in Ottawa because she needed the income. Problem is Torsney has spent the last two years in our national capital and not in Burlington. Wallace on the other hand has build a solid rep and a huge campaign team while Torsney was off in Ottawa. It's going to be real ugly for Paddy when she returns home and takes a terrible beating this spring.
Wallace will win by 8,000 votes this time. Paddy couldn't make up her mind whether she wanted to be an Ottawa staffer or a candidate so she ended up not getting the job done on either front.
08 02 10 R.O.
Wouldnít read too much into polls, have seen some which have cpc ahead in Ontario, some tied and others behind of the liberals. Has been a big difference between polls it seems. Focus on Burlington riding, well it has been entirely pc provincially for decades it did have a long running liberal mp Paddy Tornsey from 93-06. but she didnít get in by much in 04 when running against Mike Wallace for first time. And then he went on to win riding last election when the conservatives nearly swept Halton region ridings. Well itís a competitive riding, current mp should be ok and is better know than when he ran in last election since he has had 2 years in Ottawa and as local mp
07 09 11 Nick J Boragina
Torsney was a very powerful MP. She was always in committee and had a very strong local presence from what I understand. Despite that, she lost. If she, a strong incumbent, can lose this riding, then whoever the Liberals have chosen this go around will certainly lose it as well, even if the Tories continue to slide in the polls.
07 08 04 A.S.
This was federal PC heartland (as it remains provincial PC heartland) until the implosion of '93, and the Tories were so persistently humiliated in their high hopes for takeback that it almost came as a pleasant surprise when they finally defeated Paddy Torsney in '06. Burlington's always been more PC than ReformAlliance, so it's no surprise that Wallace comes from that wing--though rather paradoxically, it's also home to the Crossroads Christian media network, so perhaps he can also get away with a ĎI'm Mike Wallace, and I'm Morally Saferí declaration(arrrrgggghhh). As long as there remains a vestigial distrust of Harper and CPC remains mired around or below 2006 polling levels, Burlington might still be a more tenuous hold than the Tories might wish--at least on paper; however, it's also the kind of seat where once the glass ceiling's broken, it's got a pretty decent chance of staying broken. CPC got elected, so it might as well stay elected at this point, with parallel provincial representation as an alibi. Maybe even watch how Greens might do, considering how their last federal candidate got elected to municipal council...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
In all likelihood this should stay Tory. This is an upper middle class suburban riding that is generally conservative, but doesn't support hardline conservatism. As long as the CPC doesn't come across as too extreme, they should hold this one.
07 03 28 RF
How can we still be debating the finer points? The fact is, Mike Wallace is the incumbent. Burlington is an old Tory riding. The Tories are up 15 points in Ontario, and the Liberals are down ten. There is absolutely no chance for a Liberal win here in the foreseeable future.
07 03 25 Angry Ontarian
Why would Mike Wallace lose here? Just as Joyce Savoline did in a recent provincial by-election, Tories will increase their margin of victory.
07 03 24 RF
With the Conservatives so much stronger in Ontario than before, and the fact that Burlington is a strong blue riding, and always has been, means that Mike Wallace will be returned with a much higher plurality, although he may not deserve it.
07 03 23 Burlington Voter
This riding will go the way of the general election. At the time of this posting it seems clear that the Conservatives will hold on to power. However, Mike Wallace has not performed very well as an MP. If Paddy gets the nomination for this riding she will have the full force of the party leadership behind her thanks to her support of Dion during the leadership campaign. She never had that support under previous Liberal leaders so that could make a big difference. The other parties are non-starters in this riding and it is unlikely that there will be a lot of left-vote splitting (unlike last time) so the NDP will not drain a lot of votes from the Liberals. Very close but I think the Liberals will pick this one back up.

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