Prediction Changed
1:30 PM 13/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cosman, Scott
Goodyear, Gary
New Democratic
Lombardi, Max
Zeilstra, Gord

Gary Goodyear

2006 Result:
Gary Goodyear **
Janko Peric
Donna Reid
Gareth White
David M. Pelly

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 S. Forrest
I'll say Liberal though I suspect it's really too close to call.
The Liberals are the only really credible opponents to Goodyear; during the all-candidates debates Max Lombardi simply read off the NDP platform statements without making any adjustments for local conditions. The Green Party candidate seemed genuine but not very focused, turning questions about other matters into eloquent responses about the environment.
At the debates there seemed to be vaguely comparable numbers of Tory and Liberal supporters in the room, but it's hard to tell what voting day will bring. Economic woes and the depressed manufacturing industry are big concerns here, and Harper's initially misread of the public sentiments on the economy may prove troublesome for Goodyear.
I've heard there was considerable discord within the local Liberal Party over the nomination, and I wonder if this will carry into some protest votes.
I don't expect Goodyear's firing of his aide over the ‘Young People F*cking’ movie to have much local effect, but I was surprised by his attitude during the debates. He suggested that if provincial Liberals could have built a stroke recovery centre if they weren't so interested in funding sex-change operations, said that terrorism in Afghanistan had essentially been wiped out, and derided the National Association of Women (whose funding the Tories had cut) as being an association only concerned with ‘wine and cheese events’. I had expected a rather more moderate tone and the crowd seemed to as well.
On the other hand, Goodyear's big mouth may get him.
08 09 09
The Toyota plant in woodstock has made recent announcements that it does not intend to put on all the production lines it had originally intended to. This indicates that Ontario based car manufacturers are all suffering due to Stephen Harper's anti-ontario policies. People in Cambridge are aware of this and even if Goodyear does manage to win this time around, it is more because of lack of competition than because people in the area are pleased with him. The percentage of the vote that he does receive will be far less. I still predict a liberal comeback in this riding as people on the ground here are not pleased with Harper and the way he has treated auto workers across the province.
08 09 09 AJ
Secondly, in regards to the person who mentioned that the liberals would get in because of Toyota is the largest employer in Cambridge. This again is a mute point because Toyota is the company thriving in North America, so job loss is not a concern there. If it was, why would they build a plant in Woodstock?
08 09 08 R.O.
This riding is one of the few city ridings in Ontario that has not voted liberal at all since 2000 and that was an election where the liberals won everything because of vote splitting. Gord Zeilstra as a candidate brings little to the race as he has not run here before and his profile is limited. He also has to try and sell the complex green shift plan to a largely suburban riding which is going to be a tough sell. Gary Goodyear on the other hand can run on his record as mp and during that time he has increased his profile within the riding.
08 09 08 MB
The Liberal campaign has been revitalized with an energetic young candidate in Gord Zeilstra. Meanwhile, Gary Goodyear's web page hasn't been updated since two weeks before the writ dropped. In such a close riding, it seems likely that an energetic campaign from Zeilstra has a very strong chance of swinging the pendulum back to the Liberals.
08 08 05 Mr. Bojangles
One of the main reasons the liberals have been unsuccessful in winning this seat in the last two elections is the fact that people in the riding had become disenchanted with the performance of Mr. Peric. With a new candidate running and with the sponsorship scandal slipping from the minds of voters the liberals should be quite competitive in the riding. Goodyear is still a factor as he is well known for his work in the area prior to running for office, but given the performance of the conservative government and its unwillingness to help the auto industry, Cambridge will tilt away from a conservative vote. Toyota is a major employer in the area and the auto industry in Cambridge is the main reason that I would put this close race into the liberal camp.
08 04 10 Stevo
Interesting how T.V. (whose predictions appear to signal a massive Liberal majority; in fact I'm surprised he/she hasn't called Crowfoot for the Liberals yet) says that riding association problems for the Liberal candidate in Cambridge won't be a big deal, yet riding association problems for the Conservative candidate in Guelph are clearly fatal and insurmountable. This Zeistra character is an ‘energetic campaigner’ you say? Well, gee, that will DEFINITELY convince this riding's largely blue-collar and/or middle-class constituents to vote for an Ivory Tower sociology professor Liberal leader over a middle-class Conservative Prime Minister! Not gonna happen.
08 04 09 Buy me a tater
The provincial Liberals have been unable to win this seat in the last two general elections even though voters in Cambridge knew that Dalton McGuinty and his party were going to form a majority government. The Conservatives won this seat federally in 2006 even though they were not the party in power at the time. Cambridge is developing into a Conservative stronghold in this part of Ontario and I can't see any change when voters go to the polls sometime in the future.
08 03 30 R.O.
Well the Cambridge riding was home to a liberal mp for a few years when Janko Peric held it. But it actually hasn?t voted liberal since 2000 as it has had a pc mpp during this time as well. It avoided both Ontario liberal majorities and stayed pc. But it still is a competitive riding federally and a 3 way race exists here to an extent. But Gary Goodyear has been mp for a few years now and with former mp out of the race I feel he can hold this seat. Mean I don?t see how the new liberal candidate could do better than a longtime mp did when he ran last election as the liberals numbers have not really improved in the ridings outside of major cities.
08 03 13 T.V.
Gord Zeilstra is an extremely energetic and well-funded campaigner, and the problems within the riding association will likely be long forgotten by election time. It's not a lock for either party by any stretch, especially with the parties roughly locked into the same places in the polls as they were last election. I'm willing to bet that Janko Peric was less effective at attracting voters to the Liberals on his second unsuccessful run than Zeilstra will be. With a good campaign, nationally and locally, the Liberals would take it.
08 02 22 JLP
Conservative incumbent and Liberal contender are both embroiled in campaign irregularities. The NDP is reaching back to the past, sort of. Their candidate is Max Lombardi (coincidental in name to the only NDP MP ever elected out here, Max Saltsman in the 1960's and 1970's). Max Lombardi is a father of triplets and is getting some pretty good press out here. I pick the NDP to win in a squeaker over the Conservatives.
07 04 08 A.S.
Though as Cambridge suburbanizes, the NDP's periscope may be going down; consider that in '06 (admittedly with a weak candidate), they did worse here than in just about any riding save Kitchener-Conestoga telescoping from here into Windsor (and that even includes throwaways like Oxford and LKM). And just think, this used to be what passed for a NDP stronghold, even federally back in Max Saltsman days. Also consider that while Gary Goodyear may be sitting on a 10-point margin, the E-day result was a lot more sober than the practically Albertan margin and tally some mid-election burger'n'barber polls were suggesting. Maybe this time Goodyear will get a 50% blimp of a mandate--but from previous patterns, don't count on it, at least not definitely (except in advance polls).
07 04 02 Angry Ontarian
Gary Goodyear won an urban Ontario riding in 2004, which says it all. Cambridge even remained PC provincially during the 2003 McGuinty Liberal landslide. The NDP tugs away too many Liberal votes for them to win here anymore. CPC hold.

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