Prediction Changed
11:15 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Leahy, Stephen
New Democratic
McKeever, Andrew
Oda, Bev
Ransom, Bryan
Christian Heritage
Zekveld, Henry

Hon. Bev Oda

2006 Result:
Bev Oda **
Doug Moffatt
Bruce Rogers
Virginia Ervin
Henry Zekveld

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 J. Johnson
Here are the facts: Oda has a Cabinet position and is one of the Tories leaders. Oda has beaten well known Mayor, Doug Moffat, in 2006 by 10,000 votes, and she squeaked by Tim lang in 2004, who was a star candidate and who was much more charismatic, had a better organization than Oda and brought big guns into the riding like Frank McKenna, Ken Dryden, and Frank Mahovlich...and it still wasn't enough. The current Liberal is a poor communicator and has a weak team, so if Oda beat bigger better candiates, she will have no problem with Ransom. The fact is, with the best thrown at her, she its basically a conservative riding.
08 10 10 Orono Guy
The NDP canadiate name will be their, he will get some votes, others will go Green, other will stay home and yes the liberals will get some but not enough to make the difference.
Will she win by as much as last time, probably not but this riding is still much to blue to send anyone else to Ottawa. The Liberals have as much change of winning here as the Conservatives do in Ajax-Pickering and that isn't going to happen either.
08 10 10 MDN
I'm thinking that Oda's on the ropes after the pullout of the NDP. She still has lots of lawn signs about, but she didn't do very well in the televised debate. Bryan Ransom has called, but I've not heard anything from Oda's campaign.
08 10 10 Ransom Noise
I won't call this either way but I think people shouldn't be too surprised if Oda gets the boot.
In 2004 Oda only won by a handful of votes. And this isn't 2006 again - there is no large-scale anti-Liberal vote. The absence of an NDP candidate doesn't work in Oda's favour either.
Oda isn't very popular. She has won solely on the Conservative brand not because of her own image. People are still talking about the limo spending and her refusal to address local issues such as GM workers losing their jobs and the incinerator.
I saw the results of a locally commissioned, though unscientific, poll and the numbers were about 1 in 3 (33%) were voting Liberal while only 1 in 5 (20%) were voting Conservative. Almost all the rest were declared as undecided. The poll isn't necessarily scientific but it doesn't make one comfortable especially if your name is Bev Oda.
08 10 10 C.S.
Wow! Have things ever changed here in Durham. About two weeks ago this riding was all Oda. However, with the departure of the NDP this has become a real race. Mr. Ransom has shown that he is in this thing to win. I heard Ms. Oda was canvassing her strongholds the other day. Sounds like the advance polls didn't go too well for her last week. I'm putting my money on the Liberals in this race.
08 10 05 Stockbroker
Where is Bev Oda? Is she gliding thinking that is all I have to do to win. Just a few signs up at old O'Toole locations, hardly any advertising, very flustered at what all candidates there have been. No door knocking, a little phoning, a lot of areas have not received any literature even though voting has started. Anybody reading this know whats going on.
08 10 04 E. L. Smerl
The NDP candidate has now officially dropped out. What's more, he blames facebook. New era, folks.
Sad for the Liberals they didn't get him to drop out right at the deadline to give them a chance to consolidate the vote. NDP core supporters won't be voting Liberal since the Liberals were foolish enough to get their campaign bunker into the action directly. Green voters won't care and may smell victory and shift Liberal to knock off a cabinet minister, giving a lot more ammo to those who like to point at Harper's very weak front bench and almost total lack of women in responsible positions. Oda would thus be a big score that makes it easier for Liberals, NDP and Greens to point to the Conservatives' shameful non-record of promoting women to top jobs.
This comes too late and with too much divisive bitterness to affect anything, however. The NDP, especially, will be more careful to vet candidates entire lives online, probably disqualifying anyone who ever had a blog under their own name from ever running for office. Facebook, with its insistence on using real names, is a special venue of vulnerability.
So, Conservative hold, with probably a margin nearly equal to last time once all the robot-like always-NDP-voting drones waste their votes on a dropped out candidate, the Greens decide to send their usual ‘message’ to be ignored by a Harper majority government, and the Liberals fail to set a high enough bar morally or strategically to be worth many strategic votes.
08 10 04 PredictorManDan
With the resignation of Andrew McKeever, this one becomes a toss up; too close to call for now, but I would say still leans blue.
08 10 03 BM
I think that Andrew McKeever has made it very difficult for progressive voters in Durham to vote for the NDP. Although this is a longshot prediction, the McKeever situation gives typical NDP voters the opportunity to in good conscience, vote for Bryan Ransom.
08 09 29 Gus
Nonetheless, a week ago I would have still said that the Conservatives would easily win this riding. BUT, the local media is about to make a big deal over the fact that the NDP Candidate Andrew McKeever threatened rape online via Facebook amongst issuing many other obscenities and threats of violence. This community tends to punish candidates who demonstrate similar indiscretions (example, John Mutton). As a result, the NDP are in serious trouble in this riding. If you were to halve the NDP vote from last time around, split it evenly between the Greens and the Liberals, factor in a local Liberal campaign, all of the sudden you have a considerably tighter race in Durham.
08 09 18 JT
Oda in a landslide. The Liberals have a one-issue candidate who I've seen very little of. Oda has the organization, the energy and the numbers to win this hands down.
08 09 18 PB
The whole point of door knocking is to identify your vote so you can get them out on election day. Given the results from the last election Oda has a huge advantage in that those identified voters can be targeted in an efficient manner rather that the scattered approach of door knocking. Additional targeted canvassing will only increase that number.
08 09 18 University Student
I would like to suggest that the liberals have a long way to go in this riding. Oda captured 47% of the vote by my count in 2006. Last I checked, and as I'm sure you're aware, thats pretty darn close to a majority of the votes, not just a plurality. If the liberals 'bled votes everywhere' as you say, I still believe it will be extremely difficult to make up the 17points from the 2006 election. This is not a battleground riding as listed by just about every news organization. Now granted, I understand Ms. Oda is not popular. But Mr. Dion isn't really either. So in the election between the lesser of two 'evils', a dog returns to his vomit....Bev Oda wins again.
08 09 15 Guy in Orono
Durham Gal, I don't know where you get your numbers but the fair gets about 25k a year and about 75% are from the riding. My point was that Bev Oda got some response the liberal candidate got none.
Also he does not have any kind of sign presents in the riding, every house sign I have seen and those are the one that really count has been for Oda.
As for door knocking the only one who really knows what she has done or hasn't is Oda. Seeing as it is her third time riding I suspect she know what she need to do and where she needs to do it.
As I said before you don't have to like it but the reality is this is a safe conservative seat.
08 09 14 durham gal
I would hope that Bev Oda got applause at the orono fair, most of the attendees are from out of the riding. Betty Sommerville got lots of applause and she did not win. Brian Ranson worked the crowd better. If Oda wants to win she better get knocking on doors so far she has done none of it. Oda right now is way behind in door knocking like about thirteen thousand.
08 09 14 durham gal
The liberals could win this riding if they stop being Mr. nice guy. I can go as far back as when Bev Oda chaired Lakeridge Health Hospital Board and closed the Bomanville hospital maternity ward, a community that now has approximately fifteen hundred births a year IN OSHAWA. Port Perry still has their maternity ward and which sees about three hundred and fifty births a year. Bowmanville hospital paid a heavy price when Ms Oda was Lakeridge chair.
08 09 12 Guy in Orono
Was at the Orono fair last weekend Bev Oda comes in during the parade some clapping a few cheers, five minutes later liberal candidate comes in dead silence, I almost felt bad for him.
Their is no way in this riding you go from winning the last election by 10,000 votes to losing this election. Unless the national campaign completely falters this is one of the safest Conservative seats in Ontario.
You may not like it but doesn't mean it isn't true
08 09 11 In the Riding
University Student, you obviously are not a Political Science or Stats major. The Conservative vote in this riding has been in the 50% range with the PC Reform split during the Liberal years. She failed miserably in her first election to obtain this margin. During the 2005-6 election the Liberals bled votes everywhere, so by no account can I say that she is capable of securing the right wing vote. I don't think there is any statistical evidence to show that Oda will be able to obtain those numbers again. Furthermore, Oda will have to account for her attempted coverup of limo expenses that show she couldn't even drive herself from the oh so distant riding of Durham to Toronto.
Her inability to communicate and be an effective Minister/MP will pay a big role. I predict a Liberal win and Oda will slip into the history books.
08 09 09 University Student
Well Bev Oda may not be as popular as she once was, I would never anticipate the Liberals to pull an upset in this riding. Even the highly popular Doug Moffat couldn't take on Bev at the height of her 'scandals' in 2006. Expect a Conservative win at least at the same levels as the 2006 election.
08 03 17 Durham Gal
A lot has happened in the political world in Durham Riding, in fact all of Durham Region. since the projections took place. One of the prime nemesis for the tories now is the Whitby Minister. He has done more harm to the conservatives than Stephen Harper Fla will be a millstone around conservatives necks. I would be interested to hear from Durham Region commuters alone who watch Fla fund rail transit to skirt his riding to the tune of one hundred and fifty thousand dollars per passenger, while Bowmanville, Courtice, Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, can crowd onto to the Go.
08 02 29 R.O.
This seat has been federally conservative since 04 election when Bev Oda was first elected. The riding was only liberal during there best years and liberal mp Alex Shepherd retired before he had to face off with a conservative candidate. Both liberal candidates ( Doug Moffat and Tim Lang ) which have ran against Bev Oda have not been able to have much of an impact in this mostly rural and small town riding, which might be close to the gta but is more or less part of central Ontario. In next election liberals will again run a new candidate Bryan Ransom the 3rd one to run against this mp in as many elections.
07 12 11 T.V.
It would take a Liberal majority to swing this one their way, and I can't see that happening. I doubt Oda brings too many votes to the Tories personally, though her ministerial profile might help a bit. It's interesting to note, though, that a number of Liberal ridings in the GTA are TCTC with similar margins last election. I'd say that Durham is about as likely to go Liberal as one of the Peel ridings is to go Tory: not very likely.
07 10 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
So what if BEV ODA was demoted (yes WB, BEV is still in cabinet). People don't vote for cabinet ministers, they vote for local candidates or for party platforms. True, having a portfolio and being successful in it does help, possibly making a difference in a close race. This is certainly not a close race! Ten thousand votes is a heck-of-a-lot! Top it off, the Torys have not lost any steam in Ontario...they haven't gained any traction either. What does that mean? Maybe some seats will flip, but not anything that is from this wide a margin. Oh we can be certain that BEV ODA will be back in the next Conservative caucus.
07 09 18 WB
The Liberals have two excellent nominated candidates to run against BEV ODA... a former minister and the 2004 liberal candidate in this riding... either one would do extremely well against BEV.
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
New Information: Oda was demoted in Cabinet, because she was seen as a weak minister. While she is still in Cabinet, some have now questioned her ability. Regardless, she should still be able to hold on. She did win on 04 when the Tories only had two dozen seats in Ontario, remember.
07 07 05 T.S.
Although it appears that Oda is looking posed for another victory, the Liberals have recruited a local United Church Minister from Bowmanville to seek the nomination. I wouldn't be surprised if this would change the voting trend in Clarington to be more Liberal.
07 05 23 A.S.
It may be a conservative riding, but what paradoxically helps Oda is that she isn't one of the more conservative Conservatives--look, it's still 905-belt-edge Ontario, anything to hold old Chretien Liberals and PCers and lessen suspicions of ‘agenda’ out there. Perhaps it also makes her ineffectual in Culture, but so what--to be sitting on a 17-point margin over a popular former mayor and MPP pretty much rubber-stamps her for reelection, anyway.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
Heritage Minister Bev Oda won Durham by 10,000 votes last time. That's before she had a Cabinet title. No reason to believe she won't return to Ottawa.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Bev Oda may have provoked a number of controversies, but this is a very conservative riding, probably the most conservative of the Durham ridings, so even if the Liberals make gains in the Durham region, this won't be one of them.

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