Prediction Changed
3:35 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Bissett, Jason
Finch, Rebecca
Tilson, David
Van Leeuwen, Ard
Canadian Action
Woods, Dean

David Tilson

2006 Result:
David Tilson **
Garry Moore
Chris Marquis
Ted Alexander

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 22 Raw Clarke
R.O. has it right. I grew up in Mono Township and attend school in Orangeville and Shelburne. The area has changed (including the riding boundaries). It is always a shock when I come home and see the new developments. At the end of the day though, the changes are only on the surface. Orangeville still remains unchanged at its core. There is a reason why two provincial PC leaders decided to run from this riding. It is the safest Conservative seat in Ontario. The only question is how much Tilson (who represented the area provincially and federally) who is well know and respected will win by and who will finish second. The Liberals appear to have already written this riding off. Ms Finch appears to have no connection to the riding. The O'ville Citizen also suggested ‘lacks the maturity to be an MP’. Almost as if the Liberals had to parachute a candidate in because no one locally wanted to run in a losing fight. The Green party has made some in roads and their candidate is local (but has only been in Caledon for about eight years). It is possible they could finish a distant second here. Oh, and a note to the designer of Ms Finch's website - what is with that banner. Having a close up of her eyes staring at me while I was trying to read the webpage was a little unnerving.
08 05 09 R.O.
Although This seat is close to the city I consider it more a central Ontario riding than peel but its likely to stay where it is for a few reasons. Well the provincial liberals had there best opportunity in years to pick this one up last election. As it was vacant and party was well ahead in the polls yet they didn?t and it stayed conservative. With a well known mp in David Tilson and weak liberal leader in dion the liberals chances have decreased. But I do agree the riding is growing and towns like Orangeville are definitely getting bigger but the votes for the liberals has. But I think the growth in the riding is neutralized by the fact David Tilson is fairly well known in this riding.
The green vote is also an interesting factor here and in other ridings.
08 04 22 King of Kensington
This exurban GTA seat is very safe for the Conservatives. Even though the Libs fared best in Bolton, that doesn't mean much as the Conservatives won everywhere in the riding. Italian Canadians are increasingly assimilated and are less Liberal the further you get from Toronto; it's unlikely they voted as a bloc in this particular riding.
07 12 11 T.V.
The likelihood of a Green second place will be mitigated by the strong environmentalist credentials of the Liberal candidate. He would be a pretty good choice in any other riding. Too bad he doesn't have a chance here. Right now, this is one of the safest five Tory seats in the province. This will change in the future, though, as Caledon suburbanizes. Italians moving from Woodbridge to Bolton and redistributing out Dufferin could in time turn this riding into another Liberal 905 bastion.
07 12 10 R.O.
Going to say conservative hold for longtime mpp/mp David Tilson . sure this riding has changed a bit and Orangeville has grown but its still largely the same riding. David Tilson is a well known mp and compare that to liberals who seem to run someone new here each election. And also in last election liberal vote actually went down from 04 election and that was after riding saw some new houses pop up and new residents move here.
07 04 07 A.S.
Since this is where Greens had their best Ontario result in '04 and their third best in '06, for all we know this could be a May-era ‘second place Green’ prospect--mitigating against that, however, is that the GTA sprawl effect renders too much of Bolton and S Caledon terminally Liberal-leaning. If it were Dufferin without Caledon, maybe...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Unlike the other 905 belt ridings which are mostly surburban, this is more rural/exurban and lacks the diversity some of the other 905 ridings do, so easy Tory win here.
07 03 28 Angry Ontarian
David Tilson has Dufferin-Caledon in the bag. A 9,000 vote plurality + incumbency + natural blue riding + strong organizational base built by Ontario PC leaders who hold the seat at Queen's Park = strong win for Conservatives.

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