Prediction Changed
6:30 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Boyer, Patrick
Corail, Dave
Ignatieff, Michael
New Democratic
McHugh-Russell, Liam
Murray, Janice

Michael Ignatieff

2006 Result:
Michael Ignatieff
John Capobianco
Liam McHugh-Russell
Philip Ridge
Cathy Holliday
Janice Murray

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 09 29 R.O.
Well I suspect Michael Ignatieff will more than likely hold his own riding this election as he is much more high profile than before. But it is worthly of noting that Patrick Boyer is still a good candidate for the conservatives here. What I do not think is that Ignatieff would make a good liberal leader as from what I have seen of him has left me with a bad taste. His visits to various ridings in Ontario have left me with a negative impression of him. He has come across as way to overconfident and arrogant of the problems facing the federal liberal party at this time. He seems unaware of the reasons as to why the liberals have less support once you get outside Toronto. And the speech he gave to the business group in Toronto today was just over the top and his claims about harper and the economy just plain bizarre. But either way he is more than likely going to remain mp even if the liberal caucus shrinks a bit.
08 09 25 PCmg
If this riding goes anywhere near the way that most polls are going in Ontario (Libs down 6-10% and Tories up 3-10%), it will be a great one to watch on election night. I am not familiar with this riding but if ignatieff is truly foolish enough to ignore his own seat against a past sitting MP, the owners of this site should change the prediction to too close to call at least.
08 09 22 Lucky Eddie
Actions speak louder than words. Yesterday CITY-TV interviewed Iggy on the campaign trail - in Mississauga, supporting the local candidate. As losing his own riding would seriously hurt his leadership aspirations, I don't think he'd campaign elsewhere if he had the slightest doubts about winning his own seat.
08 09 22 MH
Patrick Boyer is an attractive candidate. He is also a Mulroney-era retread whose belief that he can help make the CPC caucus more effective is almost certainly misplaced. Stephen Harper has shown that his governing style is authoritarian, and that he relies chiefly on his political staffers, not his MPs or (except for a select few) even cabinet ministers. But whether Mr. Boyer can change this is a question that requires him to be elected for an answer to be possible. And there's the rub. He should give Michael Ignatieff a much better run for his money than the CPC candidate in 2006 did, but both as a star candidate and as an incumbent Mr. Ignatieff is positioned to win.
08 09 17 J Phair
There has been a demographic shift in this neighbourhood over the past decade with a particular change in the past two years aided by the hot real estate market. South Etobicoke is beginning to clean up and has seen real estate prices rise dramatically. Residents, particularly new ones to the area, will want to protect their investments by voting for a fiscally sound party that is also tough on crime.
The manufacturing and blue collar dominated riding is starting to dwindle as the white collar downtown crowd grows. While there is a good number of first generation Canadians in the riding, the areas gentrification is pushing past the Kingsway borders which bodes well for the Conservatives' traditionally core audience. There are greater concerns around the economy and taxes which generally speaking the Conservatives are considered to be stronger positioned to manage.
That being said the Liberals have a number of factors working for them in this riding.
(1) High profile candidate – There is an appeal to having a potential PM in ones riding.
(2) Two horse race - Low profile NDP and Green candidates will limit the split of the left vote.
(3) Voter apathy and past history – Liberal dominated area leads constituents to vote for the ‘devil’ they know.
My hypothesis is that the herd mentality prevails and Ignatieff wins a closer than expected race.
08 09 16 Lucky Eddie
Boyer was a fabulous representative and made converts of most people who dealt with him. He is the only non-Liberal my mother has ever voted for (and will vote for again this time) in 60 years of casting ballots. But then, how many people ever contact their MPs? And in the past 15 years, many new people have come into the riding, especially in all those condos on the Lakeshore. Add to that the lack of a split on the left, with Greens and NDP being invisible, and Iggy's high profile. Boyer will benefit only a little from his previous work and somewhat from improved Tory support of late, but unless the Blue Tide rises far higher than its current fairly minor ripple, it will result in little more than a respectable second place.
08 09 14 Marco Ricci
It's surprising to see Patrick Boyer running for the Conservatives rather than someone newer. Boyer was voted out in the 1993 PC collapse and has been out of office for 15 years. Perhaps he is running because he feels he has a chance to win the riding.
In any event, while the Liberal vote may go down in the 905 in this election, it would probably have to go down a fair bit before Ignatieff loses. As a likely future Liberal leader he probably has a higher profile than an ex-PC MP. Boyer didn't seem to be particularly liked even within his own party. If you watch the documentary on the 1993 election called ‘A Shock To The System’, PC pollster Allan Gregg refers to him as a ‘pompous ass----’. Ignatieff isn't liked by all either for that matter, but he probably has the edge at this point.
08 09 12 Gone Fishing
Michael Ignatieff the next Dead Liberal Walking? Hard to believe!
A stretch? Probably but according to the Hill and Knowlton predictor if you overlay the recent Harris Decima poll you get a Conservative win. A squeaker but a win. If the Liberals don't shore up some support soon it is going to be a romp!
08 09 11 Mike V
I agree 100% with AK for all his/her reasons plus the fact the Mr. Ignatieff was more vulnerable in the 2006 election than he is now and he still won rather easily.
08 09 11 AK
Sorry folks, but this is not a ?traditional? conservative riding. Short of a total collapse by the Liberals, it's not going to go Conservative.
(1) Since 1976, it's been held for 9 years by the Tories, the rest all Liberal.
(2) The conservative wins were 1984 and 1988, respectively. In 84, we experienced the aforementioned Liberal self-destruction. In 88, there was a two party matchup, as the Liberal candidate withdraw, I believe due to illness. Boyer ended up surviving by about 500 votes to the NDP candidate.
(3) There has been significant population turnover, particularly in the condos, with people who have no idea who Patrick Boyer is, moving in. Name recognition doesn't carry as much weight down here.
(4) NDP machine is weak down here. They haven't been able to get any more than their base vote of about 14%. Even if there is a resurgent NDP nationally, it's doubtful the local organization will be able to capitalize on it.
Summary: Unless the Liberals start running neck and neck with the NDP in Toronto, this is a solid Liberal hold.
08 09 08 RedFish?BlueFish?
I guess I'm the first to say it. Ignatief likely to lose his seat in this election. 90's Tories are popping up all over Ontario these days. Lakeshore is a traditional Tory seat and while it has changed, I think the Tories have adapted and are ready to return to many of their traditional ridings.
08 05 06 seasaw
This one should be extremely interesting. Patrick Boyer won it back to back in '84 and '88. He lost in '93, at that time there was a strong Reform candidate, and Boyers lost a fairly tight race to Jean Augustine. This time Boyers doesn't have Reform to worry about but his Liberal opponent is a very high profile Liberal. Ignatieff and Boyers are both brilliant academics, one has spent his entire career working in Canada, the other has spent all of his adult life outside Canada, mostly in the US. We'll see who the people'll chose.
08 03 25 The Jackal
If anyone but Ignatieff was the MP here I would say Boyer has a very good shot at pulling off an upset. But with Ignatieff likely to lead the LPC if and when Dion is turfed he will win by 3000-4000 votes.
08 03 25 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
If the best that the CPC could put up against Iggy is a has-been former MP like Patrick Boyer, who was last in politics in 1993 and got his can handed to him by Jean Augustine, then this riding will stay Liberal even if the party goes into free fall during the next campaign.
08 03 03
Deputy LOFO, Michael Ignatieff will win this one. He is high profile, and considered a likely successor to the Liberal throne if Dion falters next election. His incumbency has likely sealed the deal.
However, the CPC has matched Ignatieff's high profile with a tough challenger in Patrick Boyer, a former MP for 9 years and former parliamentary secretary. In the event of a CPC majority, this one will be a see-saw race and will be close.
08 01 21 Jake Stromberg
The Conservatives may be running a fairly good candidate but Michael Ignatieff has been able to establish himself as a well respected parliamentarian in relatively little time. He may have had a rocky start breaking into Canada's political scene, but his efforts to clean up his Canadian image and clarify his position on the war in Iraq have largely been successful. Furthermore, despite a bitter leadership battle he has adapted well to the deputy leader position. Many Liberal and Conservatives who doubted his abilities and/or patriotism in the past have recently been seeing him in a more positive light. Like him or not, he's here to stay.
08 01 15 King of Kensington
As much as I personally dislike Iggy, he will have no problem being re-elected. Patrick Boyer may be a somewhat high profile but the last time he won an election in the riding was 20 years ago, when the Conservatives were still competitive in the 416 area code.
07 12 25 binriso
Conservatives have a pretty good candidate here with ex-MP Patrick Boyer, but Ignatieff is too high profile and more importantly in this race on the right wing of the Liberal party. That’ll be very important in a riding where the NDP will be trying to fight for its deposit, since although they have traditionally done well here, their highest vote total since 1988 was 15.6%. Might be as close as last time but it wont be getting any closer than that and likely Ignatieff adds a couple more thousand votes to his margin.
07 09 28 Stevo
I was very surprised in 2006 by how close Capobianco came, but now that Iggy is elected and high-profile, his margin of victory in the next election should easily be somewhere north of 10,000 votes over the Conservative candidate. As an aside, note this astonishing fact: out of the 8 Liberal leadership contenders, 6 of them are now running in ridings in Toronto-proper (416 area code). Not just the *GTA*, but actually Toronto-proper. And those 6 Toronto candidates were all beaten by a soft-spoken academic from Montreal. Those Montrealers have got to feel smug about that!
07 09 18 Nick J Boragina
I’m going to agree with both those who say Iggy is far from safe, and those who say the Liberals will win. Remember, personal candidacy only goes so far. We have seen high profile people, and Prime Ministers in fact, be knocked off in their own riding because more people voted for another party, then voted for their local candidate. Iggy can easily lose if the Tories start pushing on Majority territory. His being very popular wont save him in a blue tide that sweeps the country. Despite that, for now, the Tories are far from a majority, and therefore this riding is still safe for the Liberals.
07 04 26 Daniel
Though I'm pretty sure Ignatieff can win this riding, I'm not ready to declare it 'in the bag' just yet. Ignatieff, despite being a star candidate, only managed to attain one of the weakest Liberal wins in the 416 (and the weakest outside the more NDP-ish city centre). This is also one of the most (if not the most) right-leaning riding in T.O.; Of course, Iggy's newfound high-profile will probably give him a more comfortable margin of victory this time around, but any significant upswing in Tory or NDP support could make him vulnerable.
07 04 08 free_thinker
Iggy is not as safe as people assume. Watch out for a big challenge from the CPC here, Iggy will have to stay close to home and if that is the only objective of the CPC then it will succeed.
07 04 06 A.S.
Having survived his trial by fire, Iggy ought to be breathing easier, unless the self-exile of local riding association types proves to be a permanent condition. Keep in mind that the ?natural? CPCness of Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a bit of an illusion sustained through Capobianco's candidacies; in fact, Etobicoke Centre is the truer conservative-bedrock sort of place, so even if it's become ingrained habit, watch it with staking too much arbitrary Tory-breakthrough hope in E-L, unless somebody atypical like Patrick Boyer runs...
07 03 28 SaganDLS-NDP
Ignatieff will carry this riding handily. During the candidates meeting prior to the last election despite the protestors in orange jumpsuits whose presence was in response to Iggy's support of torture and the Iraq war. However Capobianco's past relations with the PCs during the Common-sense revolution was also a bone of contention with the audience. All in all, this is a very strong Grit riding at least as of 1993 and it will go red once again. However like before I seriously believe Iggy and the Grits will remain in opposition.
07 03 25 Steve V.
This still is the CPC's best chance in Toronto. The Liberal nomination drama last time probably left its mark, but the Conservatives made gains here that were largely in line with a trend stretching from Burlington right through to this riding. Compare Liberal results in all of the ridings along the lakeshore from Burlington to this one. 7,000-10,000 vote wins collapsed to defeat (Burlington, Halton) or something not far from it (Oakville, Mississauga South). The CPC had a big jump here, as it did in Etobicoke Centre and in the aforementioned nearby ridings. That was with the Liberals still carrying the province 39% to the CPC's 35%.
Now the polls show, variously, ties or sometimes big CPC leads. If the Tories are opening up a province-wide lead, I'm not sure Ignatieff is going to be special enough to hang on. The CPC may be nominating ex-MP Patrick Boyer here, which should only serve to make Ignatieff's life more difficult.
If the CPC really is picking up in Ontario after the budget, I don't think Ignatieff is all that safe.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Although the strongest riding for the Tories in the 416, Michael Ignatieff is just to high profile within the Liberals to lose here. He is guaranteed a cabinet post if they form government and a possible future leader if they lose, so why would the voters of Etobicoke-Lakeshore want to turf him. Last time it was only as close as it was (the only riding the Tories came within 10 points of winning in Toronto) due to the nomination controversy.
07 03 21 Red Robin
After placing 2nd in a field of 11 leadership candidates, Iggy is Mr. Dion's right hand man, and will be certain to keep his seat.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster