Prediction Changed
10:47 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Collard, Amy
Raitt, Lisa
Christian Heritage
Rodrigues, Tony
Turner, Garth
New Democratic
Wagner, Rob

Hon. Garth Turner

2006 Result:
Garth Turner
Gary Carr **
Anwar Naqvi
Kyle Grice

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 14 MSmith
As a Halton resident and keen counter of lawn signs (as opposed to just arterial signs), it seems pretty clear to me that Garth should keep this riding. He narrowly beat Gary Carr when he was a conservative, despite running a much better campaign than Carr. This time, he ran a better campaign than Lisa Raitt, despite all the national CPC money & effort flowing into the Riding.
08 10 12 King of Kensington
This is probably the hardest call for me to make. Garth Turner is probably the biggest grandstander in the Commons - but he has quite a personal profile that may cross party lines. On the other hand, people here voted for a Conservative last time - and with the Libs down in 905, it's hard to imagine Garth getting the thousands of personal votes needed to win. It could go either way - I'll give a narrow edge to the Tories.
08 10 13 binriso
Id have to say its kind of crazy to go against Garth Turner. He is far more high profile and personally popular that the CPC candidate and will win on Tuesday.
08 10 13 Dan Levitan
Garth Turner has no chance. Like David Emerson over in Vancouver Kingsway, Wajid Khan in Missisauga-Streetsville, and others, his constant flipping and his constant problems with the press are going to be problematic. Prominent information has him behind Lisa Raitt pretty consistently, and I think this is one that's going to switch.
08 10 12 R
The Tories have made a fatal mistake in parachuting a candidate over the riding association's head. Where this could have been the Conservative candidate's race to win, Harper has lost the support of the local Tories and I think it will prove costly.
Garth Turner has proven to be a representative of his constituents, not the party. He may be a maverick, but he's a proven to be a strong MP and he'll hold on to his seat.
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
The newspapers in Halton have endorsed the Conservative and have spoken out against Garth Turner. However, newspaper endorsements don't always make a difference so Garth could still hold on.
08 10 10 Ancastarian
Well this riding borders my home riding, and I do spend alot of time travelling through here. I also have friends here who I was talking to about the election. If what they say can be taken with a grain of salt, Garth Turner is toast. They said they initally supported his switch to the Liberals, but lately he has been coming across very poorly. Also judging by the signs in Milton, Garth is totally Toast. Lastly, you have to imagine the CPC has turned this into a target seat. With them piling in extra resources in addition to having a strong (former) and good looking woman candidate with a good local organization, expect a pick up election night!
08 10 09 R.O.
As this riding has been close in recent elections I would expect it to be close again. Garth Turner and Lisa Raitt have each run a good campaign here. in the end it could go to who ever did better in the advance polls maybe if its really close on election night. But with polls for Ontario so uncertain at the moment its hard to say for sure what will happen here. Garth Turner is well known but the riding did originally elect him as a conservative not a liberal.
08 09 28 I'm Always Right
Garth Turner in popular in Oakville, Lisa Raitt is popular in Milton. There are a lot more voters in Oakville than there are in Milton. Turner is a maverick, Raitt was appointed by the backroom boys in the Conservative party over another stronger local Conservative. This annoyed a lot of local Conservatives who are sitting out this campaign. Another advantage for Turner. Garth Turner is a smart politician and isn't going to lose to Raitt.
08 09 25 John R
People in Milton have a strong dislike for Turner, but he has stronger support in Oakville. Lisa canvassed my door the other day, seems nice and competent. the Torys won this riding last time. I see lots of signs on public property for all candidates, but Lisa seems to have the edge in signs in neighbourhoods - and those signs mean votes. Id call this one for them.
08 09 20 Peg Leg Pete
There are tens of thousands of people who have moved into this riding since the last election. These people have come from all over the place and have no specific voting pattern. What will make the difference in Halton is name recognition and that is something Garth Turner has going for him that no other candidate has. Turner will use this to his advantage all through the campaign. The other thing Turner has going for him is by far the best organized campaign in Halton. The Conserviatives are still recovering from the nomination mess and haven't managed to get their campaign going. You have to look long and hard to find the Greens or the NDP in Halton. Final results, Liberals first, Conservatives second, Greens third and the NDP fourth.
08 09 16 Adrena Lynn
08 09 16 R.O.
Looking back at the history of this riding one thing that stands out is that last election Garth Turner defeated another pc turned liberal to win this riding. That being Gary Carr who if your familiar with provincial politics was the speaker of legislature back when Ernie Eves was still premier and he harshly critised his own party at the time over where it released budget and he ended up not running for re-election then reappearing in 04 as a liberal candidate here. That being said Garth Turners status as a floor crosser might not help him here as much as though. The riding has voted liberal before federally but only when the party was winning elections by significant margins so it could be a challenge for the liberals to hold this riding. In other news Stephen Harper is visiting this riding this week so its clear the conservatives plan to target this one.
08 09 16 rebel
Turner's CPAC debacle (caught staging a canvass on his own campaign manager when being filmed by CPAC) must hit home in his riding about how deceptive the man is...This is really embarrassing. If local coverage picks this up, Turner isn't returning to the Opposition benches.
08 09 16 Torontonian537
‘The Conservatives' record of stamping upon local democracy by way of appointing candidates.’ This priceless line shows how far Liberal partisans are willing to stretch the facts in this riding. Need I remind the Liberals about the fiascos in the Outremont and Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River by-elections, both of which partially resultd from Dion appointing candidates? These are only the two most noteworthy recent examples of candidate appointments, but the number of Liberal candidates Dion has appointed for this election stretches into double digits, just like the examples of Chretien and Martin before him.
Moving back to the local campaign, the Tories have nominated a well-connected businesswoman who will undoubtedly be a prolific fundraiser. Garth Turner is certainly in for a tough fight. As the most recent federal and provincial elections have proven, this is a Liberal-CPC swing seat, but probably leans slightly to the Conservatives as the candidate carrying the Tory banner has won both times. Since the national poll numbers are showing CPC gains, Raitt probably holds a small advantage, but it's way too early to say for sure.
08 09 15 E. L. Smerl
You're kidding, right? A consumer advocate who was tossed by Harper for actually standing up for his own election promises, expecting some integrity, versus an unaccountable faceless bureaucrat who sued citizens in Toronto in a S.L.A.P.P. suit for criticizing her and her board? What a joke.
Raitt has no local profile and has a history of using lawsuits to inhibit accountability and silence critics, which Harper of course has also done. Given that, gloves will be off in this campaign and Turner has the brass knuckles to win.
Imagine citizens voting to be sued by their MP if they complain about her. Hah.
08 09 14 Adrena Lynn
‘Turner isn't as big a name as he thinks he is’
Well, neither is the Conservative's Lisa Raitt, who was parachuted into the riding, made no personal effort to establish a presence in the riding, or personal sacrifices (she will return to her 6 figure income job when she loses by the way).
The Tories have played right into Turner's hands. This gives him ample ammunition to go over the Conservatives' record of stamping upon local democracy by way of appointing candidates, or punishing incumbents who try to represent the people. You know, like this one interesting guy from the Tories who won in Halton in 2006. Wasn't his name...Garth Turner?
08 09 12 Gone Fishing
We can all agree that Turner is not going to win this on his name alone. The Liberals will have their hands full keeping this one and they have to claw and scrape to hold too many other area seats to work too hard for this carpet bagger who began stabbing Harper in the back approximately four seconds after he was declared the winner.
People didn't vote Turner because he was a maverick and he was too easily swayed to join the Liberals to be held out as a man of principal.
His popularity was as a financial commentator in a time when throwing darts at a board was enough to pick a good investment.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
This seat is low hanging fruit for the Conservatives. It voted Conservative last time. Turner isn't as big a name as he thinks he is.
08 09 06 R.O.
The conservatives have finally found a new candidate to challenge former conservative Garth Turner here. That being Lisa Raitt who is somewhat new to federal politics but previous was with the Toronto port authority. With an election coming very soon she was nominated very quickly and over other potential candidates but I think in the end she was the strongest candidate available for the conservatives here. But Garth Turner will put up a strong fight here and the riding has been very close in recent elections so it remains competitive. In a couple of weeks we will likely have a better idea as to how the race is turning out here.
08 04 03 Peg Leg Pete
Rebel says that Halton is not the 416. He's correct in this analysis. If you look at the numbers from the last couple federal elections, the Liberals are actually stronger in the peel region of the 905 than they are in the 416. There's no NDP in peel to take votes away from the Liberals on the left. With Halton being taken over by commuters like those in Mississauga and Brampton, it's now just like them. Turner is one of the most high profile Liberals in the caucus and will easily win this seat no matter when an election is held.
08 03 30 rebel
With no federal election in the offing, the value of all of our comments will be diluted over time.
I am still surprised that so many recent posters think Turner will be such a draw - as time goes on, the government remains the government and the Liberal Opposition deflates into a series of mutually exclusive voices of which the Leader Dion is not often the loudest. That Turner's voice is heard loud and often doesn't necessarily help his liberal brand.
If months go by and the underlying issue is whether the Liberals will or will not oust Dion this or that week, that has to be terrible for the political health of its MPs. Halton will remain a marginal riding...rural but distant suburban neighbourhoods that can vote for the Conservatives or Liberals. It is not a 416 riding.
If the Conservatives make it to 2009, Turner's chances for re-election dwindle.
08 03 25 Peg Leg Pete
50,000 suburban voters have moved into the once tiny Milton. These people now outnumber the traditional rural voters to the point where Garth Turner is headed for a very big victory.
08 03 16 Daniel
I think I'll retract my earlier statement (made in the wake of the hulabaloo in which Turner turned from an independent into a Liberal). Turner's never been one to shy away from controversy, but that's what got him elected in the first place (without Turner, this riding would probably have stayed Liberal in 2006). He's even become somewhat of a Canadian political-pop culture icon. I can't see him scaring Liberal voters off, but I CAN see him corralling Conservative voters to vote Garth, even if they'd rather not vote Liberal.
08 02 29 Doug The Slug
Garth Turner was about the only member of the Liberal caucus who wanted a spring election because he knows he can't lose his seat. Thanks to his ability to draw attention, Garth is one of the most recognizable members of parliament in southern Ontario. Turner has his name, his campaign team and as mentioned by others, a suburban riding that will give him an easy hold in Halton. There are still a lot of seats that are too close to call but Halton isn't one of those.
08 02 24 R.O.
But one could also argue that polls province wide don’t exactly apply or guarantee a win in this riding, when Garth Turner was first elected as a conservative mp they were not leading in Ontario or it was very close in some polls. And in last 2 provincial votes Ontario pc mpp Ted Chudleigh was re-elected here even with his party behind liberals in the polls. Also not sure if the conservatives have a candidate here yet, after much searching found that 3 are running for the nomination those being D’arcy Keene, Michael Glynne and Rick Malboeuf. But unsure when the nomination meeting is planned to take place or if it has if it has I didn’t find it anywhere.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
Looks like Angry Ontarian is the only one who thinks Garth Turner will lose his seat. The Conservatives have two problems in Halton. First off, Turner is a very well liked and high profile MP. They like his independent ways. Secondly, thanks to out of control urban sprawl, almost 50,000 people have moved into Milton. The knuckle dragging, redneck farmers sold off their land and it's now filled with houses for as far as the eye can see. These urban voters are a natural constituency for the Liberals and when they figure out Turner is their MP, they re-elect him.
It's actually ironic that former Ontario Conservative MPPs like Flaherty, Clements and Baird, who rolled over for developers have made ridings like Halton Liberal strong hold because the Harris government allowed them to be paved over. Turner wins in a walk. Halton is now a dead zone for the Conservatives.
08 02 13 binriso
As it stands now, this will be one of a few probable gains for the Liberals in Ontario.
For polls read Wikipedia and type in 40th Canadian Federal Election, theyre all there. The Liberals lead in most of them and the last 3 have them at 43%, with the CPC in the low 30s. Obviously if that were the case(which it isnt) wed be back to 2004(75 Liberal seats or so in Ontario). But still its portrayed as very accurate by the media and people believe that polls are actually right on the button. And lets face it, some people will vote with the polls because theyd want to be on the winning team/they dont actually put any effort or time into thinking who they want to vote for.
08 01 23 seasaw
Don't know which dreamland the previous poster gets his poll results from, a double digit lead for the Libs in Ont., means a majority, or near majority, for Libs, which is a rarity. Yes, you read it right, against a united Conservative party, the Liberal record is a dismal 2 wins 4 losses in the last six election, and only 1 majority. You can say a lot about Dion, but the man is neither stupid nor insane, so, if he had numbers like that he would've brought the gov't down rather than keeping it in power. Having said that this riding's Garth's in a cakewalk, he's been consistent in his views both as a Tory and a Lib, he lost a close one in '93 to a very well liked former MPP, his CPC opponent is a two time Reform loser and if Dion loses the next election he'll be history, so who should take Dion's place, Ignattieff ( the guy who hasn't lived in the country for 35 years ) ? Rae ( the very worst premier in the history of province ), Kennedy ( no federal experience. little provincial experience, no national profile ) or Garth ( high national profile, years of federal experience, former federal cabinet minister, worked with 3 PM's ), the choice is clear.
07 11 21 R.O.
Garth Turner was elected as conservative but now a liberal mp , makes for a tough call . possibility he’ll get back in , but this riding was very close during provincial vote. Actually one of the closest in the GTA area, incumbent pc mpp was re-elected but liberals were close behind. The town of Milton is also seeing rapid growth and many new residents which could swing vote. Could come down to the candidates and I’m still unsure exactly who is running in this riding for other parties.
07 11 18 binriso
I think Garth Turner takes it here. He seems to have a reasonable amount of personal popularity, considering he did quite well in 1993 for the PCs coming within 4000 votes of winning and contending with a very strong Reform Party showing too. Although that has probably waned in recent years he did beat a strong Liberal MP and former PC MPP in Gary Carr. Not to mention the PCs provincially won by like 1% with a long-time incumbent so this is by no means safe CPC ground at all. Furthermore, 3 recent polls give the Liberals a double-digit lead in Ontario, and the margin last election was 4.8%. The Schreiber affair is hurting Harper a bit (Hmm scandal from the past hurting a party many years later... where have we seen that before? Oh wait, the Sponsorship Scandal! Basically the only reason Harper is in power now). Itll be interesting to see how this Malboeuf character does for the CPC but clearly Garth has incumbent advantage and also is well known compared to his rivals. NDP and Greens are off the map here and thatll be what puts him over the top.
07 04 11 JC
Garth Turner is an enigma and simply to put it lightly, he's going to win because the Conservatives don't have a real good candidate and the one they are looking at putting up it is a hard-core right winger.
07 04 05 Daniel
Turner will NOT win this easily, if at all. The fact that he's Garth Turner may not be the selling point that many think it is: people liked his strong opinions, and how he always stuck to his principles, even when his own party went against them (e.g. the Emerson floorcrossing). Now that Garth has shown his willingness to part from those principles just as easily as any other politician, his golden glow may have tarnished - he's not ‘Garth’ anymore. If the Conservatives win the next election, I suspect Halton will have an MP on the government side.
07 04 04 Red Robin
Garth Turner wins this one easily. The sheer force of his personality brings over a percentage of those Conservative voters with him to the Liberal side, and most of those Liberal voters stick with their team. It was close enough last time that it wont take much to paint this riding Red.
07 04 03 A.S.
Re ?incumbent advantage means less here?; actually, 905/416 results up through 2006 have proven that incumbent advantage has meant *plenty* in those suburban seats, whatever the calibre of candidate or opponent. And Milton/Campbellville (and north Burlington, for that matter) is an increasingly marginal part of the constituency anyway--even if it + advance polls made the difference in '06. Above all, don't forget what happened to Belinda Stronach after her party switch in an even more ?urban? seat--talk about incumbent advantage! Garth Turner might not be a pretty face or presidential arm candy; but surely, nobody expected this Kim Campbell cabmin-turned-infomercial financial weasel to be such a savvy political maverick. Yes, his chosen party switch might be increasingly a technical handicap this far out of Toronto; but it might not matter, if he's slated to become the Peter Stoffer of the Outer 905...
07 04 02 Angry Ontarian
I don't see Garth Turner hanging on here. The riding is more urban than it is rural so incumbent advantage means less here. Plus, the rural Milton/Campbellville area is deep blue anyway. The previous MP for the area, Gary Carr, also switched from Conservative to Liberal and that didn't stop Halton voters from defeating him. And overall, Harper is up in the 905.
07 03 27
I know there are split opinions on Garth Turner, but Garth Turner is not some party hack like everyone else is in the house of commons, in fact Garth Turner is probably the only one in there who actually listens to people. He has been highly visible in this riding and his constituent service is excellent. I think he will be re-elected based on those strengths.
07 03 22 B.O.
Despite what this site says, this is now a Liberal seat as Garth Turner was kicked out of caucus in October 2006 and joined the Liberal caucus in February 2007. There is no point in making a prediction for this race assuming Turner runs again. If Turner did not run the riding would likely go Conservative again. If he does run, it is a super-tight race. The riding is naturally Conservative, more so than Newmarket-Aurora. Turner's only advantage would be incumbency and any possible constituent dissatisfaction over how the Tories treated Turner. Such dissatisfaction, however, could easily be cancelled out by constituent anger over Turner becoming a Liberal, which some will argue goes against Turner's rhetoric on David Emerson. Therefore, Turner would have had a better chance had he remained an independent, won the Liberal nomination, but sat as an independent until the election. As it is, this is going to be a very tight and possibly unpredictable race.
07 03 21 M. Lunn
As important as Garth Turner thinks he is, I think this will likely follow the national trend and vote for whichever party is strongest in the 905 belt. A month ago that was the Liberals, now the Tories, who knows when the election comes. I will make one prediction though: Both the Tories and Liberals get over 40% in this riding as they are pretty few Dippers and Greens in this upper-middle class suburban riding.

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