Prediction Changed
2:40 PM 08/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Hamilton Mountain
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Anderson, Terry
Banham, Tyler
Brotherston, Stephen
New Democratic
Charlton, Chris

Chris Charlton

2006 Result:
Chris Charlton
Bill Kelly
Don Graves
Susan Wadsworth
Stephen Downey
Paul Lane

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 King of Kensington
I think Bear and Ape's initial prediction shouldn't be too controversial at all. The NDP took this riding by a pretty comfortable margin last time and has a strong base in Hamilton. Every poll these days shows the spread between the Liberals and the NDP has narrowed in Ontario. Chris Charlton should win by at least 5000 votes.
08 10 07 AJVHAM
I am a local labour leader: Have been listening to people and the 3pm add has struck a cord - NDP supporters are getting defensive and others think it is brilliant and really puts Charlton on the spot - she relentlessly went after Phinney - for years and has shown a lack of class in politics unseen in the 14 election campaigns (all levels/cities) that I have worked in. Phinney ignored her and won. The fact that Charlton is screaming over this speaks volumes. As for the numbers - Tories have flatlined nationally, Liberals and Bloc have momentum and NDP dropping. Here in Ontario even more interesting Libs at 40, CONs at 31, NDP at 22. On average when Hamilton MTN votes NDP Conservatives win - when Ham MTN votes Liberal Liberals win. Anderson is outta the picture as Tory numbers plummet in Ontario - look for close contests in Hamilton - NDP/LIB in old Hamilton and CON/LIB in rural.
08 10 04 Mountain Observer
TB, I enjoy reading your submissions but I'm going to have to disagree.
The Conservatives haven't elected a member on Hamilton Mountain since 1979. Even the Mulroney landslide of 1984 didn't produce a Conservative MP.
This race will be between Tyler Banham and the NDP.
The NDP enjoyed a bump in the 2006 election due to Liberal Scandal and a general malaise towards the party. It collected votes in areas it had no business getting votes from.
This time the Liberals have an energetic young campaign put forward. More signs are appearing, more canvassing and a fantastic use of the internet has gotten them more free publicity than any other of the campaigns.
08 10 01 Yoshi
It is true that Tyler Banham doesn't have the name recognition that Bill Kelly has, but he also doesn't have the baggage that Kelly had. Banham is a fresh face that the media love. This city has a history of electing young, energetic, idea-focused representatives - Munro, Copps, Valeri, Agastino.
08 10 01 tb
There is no doubt the street signs favor Charlton--her display in CBC last night could not be a help for the undecided but probably reinforced the troops.
Taking a hard look at the numbers and % from the last 2 elections---it will be tight again this time --in 2004 the winner got 35%-- in 2006--37%- this was a large margin for the NDP who went from 34%.
So in my opinion only--the Libs are not a factor--their candidate does not have the appeal of a Bill Kelly--a SITTING COUNCIL member. Where these go is large for the final outcome and unfortunately a small % will go to the NDP
The PC have an uphill battle to gain 10% to win this riding but not out of the picture at all. Here's hoping Dion really is as bad as he looks on the news casts so far
08 09 29 Felt
I feel compelled to post on this one. In part because there seems to be a lot of wishful thinking going on here – particularly on the part of the Liberal candidate’s young supporters.
Both Democratic Space and the vote tracker on have Chris Charlton and the NDP in the lead, with the Conservatives and Liberals battling for second place. Both have the Conservatives finishing ahead of the Liberals.
While predictions on sites like these aren’t always accurate, I have reason to believe they might be right here – in part because both are using fairly detailed methodology, but mostly because of what I hear from people on the Mountain.
The Mountain was a Liberal stronghold for many years, but the riding has an interesting mix of working class politics and a strong strain of social conservatism. It doesn’t surprise me that the Conservatives seem to be doing very well here. But Chris Charlton won this riding on sheer perseverance and personal popularity. Despite the Liberal’s lame tempest in a teapot 3 pm you tube ad, most people (even non-NDPers) consider Charlton a strong local MP who has worked hard. Tyler Banham may have been able to get the local press interested in his mud-slinging, but it doesn’t jive with peoples perceptions of Charlton and won’t end up getting much traction.
I think that Charlton does have a fight on her hands, but this time from the Conservatives. They are coming on strong. Liberal support is bottoming out due to a weak national leader, sagging poll numbers and a candidate with no real local credibility.
In the end, Charlton will take the day. She has built a solid base of support that is growing. Plus, Layton's flawless national campaign can only help the NDP here. And the Conservatives have too much ground to make up. The Liberals will come third behind a strong second place showing from the Conservatives.
08 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Would like to also chime in on the note that a CPC victory here isn't totally inconceivable. Banham is suffering from the Liberal meltdown, Anderson is benefiting from the strong CPC showing and Charlton is benefiting from the strong NDP and popularity of Jack Layton. If compelled to make a decision we'd say NDP, based on incumbent advantage and that Liberal votes would migrate to both the NDP and the CPC but really we have a three way race. If the CPC can capitalize more on the wayward Liberal vote, then they can take it.
08 09 29 Live Wire
I'm not sure there guys. This has been a Liberal/NDP fight for years. Banham is running an excellent local campaign. I haven't really seen much from Anderson. Few signs, few mailers, few canvassers, few volunteers. If there is a sleeper campaign happening here, its in a deep, deep sleep.
08 09 28 Al R
Just to show tb isn't crazy Democratic Space is saying so far, it's too close to call between the Tories and the NDP. The Tories are projected by DemSpace to capture 28-32% and the libs only 21-24%
While far be it from me to rely on only this for a prediction, it definitely shows that while the Anderson campaign is flying under the radar of many observers, they will probably take at least second place in the riding.
08 09 27 tb
Bill Kelly is far more known than Banham and he lost--go figure. The Libs today are dead everywhere except Toronto. How do you see them making a challenge? The Tories will take the undecided and blue Libs in large numbers. Take a look at the numbers--they need to pull 3000 from the Libs--the Greens pull 500 from the dippers and they win--One more thing about this riding--it has become a bedroom community for the GTA--it is no longer a socialist bastion. If the tories had run a better candidate--like Jackson again last time they would have won--I like their chances this time
08 09 25 Edgevale
tb - The Tories aren't players here and haven't been since '79. This is a Liberal/NDP Race to the finish. Tom Jackson had way more name recognition than Anderson does. He was a SITTING councillor after all, not a retired politician.
With the new 3pm ad that Banham put out, he's aimed his sights squarely at Charlton and we'll have to wait and see how Chalrton reacts.
08 09 25 tb
this will be tight and for the first time in 30 years, I can see the Cons taking this. My opinion is from street signs and the Ontario trend where the PC is about 5% ahead of last time.
Chris Charlton is not a great attraction and seems like a lifer as a politician who finally lucked out last time after about 5 tries at any election
I agree the Libs are toast no matter who they nominated,and their votes will go to the Cons not the socialists
This time the tories have Terry Anderson who has name recognition . The last time they tried a councilor it was Tom Jackson who was very close but lost to the Libs. This will depend on the get out the vote teams on the big night but it will be very close
08 09 24 Rick
The recent post is interesting, mostly because it's so far off. I was expecting the next reason to be ‘the sky is blue - advantage Charlton’. To ‘Carrie’, each indicator was a Charlton advantage.
The facts are that the 905 NDP numbers are low. Her incumbency is suspect at best - she's known for her thousands upon thousands of newsletters, but not for accomplishing anything. Her name recognition is based upon losing 6 times, not exactly the best thing to be known for! In fact, a significant portion do not know if she's male or female.
Banham has a huge political machine and they're winning across the board - their signs may disappear each night, but they are up the next day.
08 09 24 Carrie
For all you people predicting a Liberal win on the Mountain, I think you've got another think coming. Consider a few of the factors at play: 1) NDP numbers are up nationally - advantage Chartlon. 2) NDP incumbency - advantage Charlton. 3) Liberal numbers are down nationally - advantage Charlton. 4) Conservative numbers are up nationally - advantage Chartlon, because many of those will be former Liberal voters. Tyler Banham is a political newcomer with nowhere near the name recognition of Chris Charlton. I predict a Charlton win with the Conservatives battling the Liberals for second place.
08 09 22 Al R
You're kidding me right? I didn't think he'd have any name recognition either, but living in Ward 7 i'm discovering that people do remember him in a positive manner.
I doubt Bill Kelly would've destroyed him. Bill Kelly screwed up big time, loosing what should've been a lock against a mediocre Tory candidate and a 3 time looser NDP candidate. Bill Kelly kept his council seat for one reason, Hamilton seldom sees interesting council races. Except when a star runs, the incumbent wins. (The exception being DiAnni, who peeved off alot of people and still almost won simply due to being the incumbent).
So in summary, Terry Anderson is NOT an unknown quantity and he is not some lightweight. That said he has an uphill battle, just like every other candidate in this race.
08 09 21 Mike
Anderson's recognition is limited to the fact he was an alderman before the ward system and bowed out rather then be destroyed by Bill Kelly. He's had no profile since then besides knocking on doors for Liberal candidates and attempting to be one himself, only to be rejected by the local association and forcing him to become a Conservative.
08 09 20 John
Close race in 2006, and a good Liberal campaign would target this riding. But the Liberals started this election campaign on the wrong foot, and I don't think they've recovered, so this riding will stay NDP.
08 09 20 Al R
The previous poster is absolutely incorrect. While Chris Charlton never got much support from the middle class, she's loosing votes to the Liberals, who are definitely loosing them to both the Greens and the Conservative. Recently the local media, normally Liberal cheerleaders are now predicting they won't win a single seat once again. The Mountain News had some harsh words for Tyler Banham basically saying that no one knows him. People who've met him who I know, weren't impressed. Once again I think it's going to be a close three way race.
08 09 19 AJVHAM
I think this riding is going to get a lot of attention from the Libs and NDP. The NDP candidate has not really clicked with middle class voters. I think it will be close but this young bright energetic lawyer could out smart and outwork her. Look to some big names to come out and help Banham. I disagree with the Spec prediction - if the NDP polls below 18% nationally they are toast here. Look for stronger green candidate to suck votes from NDP.
08 09 19 Porter
‘Hamilton Spectator says the Liberals are not expected to win any Hamilton-area seats’
According to the Globe and Mail, last weekend The Hamilton Spectator asked: ‘Where have all the Liberals gone?’ The article was accompanied by pictures of former Liberal stalwarts John Munro and Sheila Copps and reminded readers that, not many elections ago, the party won all the Hamilton-area seats. Today, the Liberals hold none and are not expected to win any.
08 09 18 Al R
I'm retracting my Liberal prediction. The Conservative campaign on the Mountain is turning out to be not the shadow of a campaign it was last time. I've noticed a few houses which previously had liberal signs including one which had ones as long as I can remember, which are now hosting Anderson signs.
I'm also noticing people remember Terry Anderson fondly with a few commenting that this has made them decide to vote for him. I had not previously counted on this.
Things are going to be interesting. Charlton will loose votes to Banham, and Banham to Anderson. Everyone, but less so Anderson, is going to bleed votes to the Greens. Anderson will pick up the CHP vote (about 500) which may not seem like much, but is a lot in such a close riding. Look for it to be a tight three way race. If the media doesn't notice Anderson, and therefore people don't vote strategically, he might even make a *surprise* win.
08 09 15 Peg Leg Pete
Tyler Banham has managed to develop a good relationship with a usually hostile Hamilton media and that is going to go a long way to helping him beat Chris Charlton. The Spec had nothing but good things to say about the Banham campaign when it usually goes out of its way to destroy local Liberals. Charlton has been coasting through the summer while Banham knocked on doors and his campaign is clearly outworking hers. I'm going on record predicting a Banham victory here while Charlton will run in the 2011 provincial election and defeat Sofia Aggelonitis.
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
If signs are name recognition than Century 21 is probably the next MP for this and every other riding in Canada.
Name recognition involves what has this person done in his/her community it does not mean he has his name on a red sign. This isn't late 1990s when Chretienites could have given the angel of death the nomination and won.
It's a closer three way race than any other Hamilton seat with the Conservatives not so far away that saying they have a slim chance is not insane.
However, it is probably the NDPs seat to lose not the Libs to gain.
08 09 08 Live Wire
While I generally agree that up to a few days ago Banham had no name recognition, his name is certainly everywhere in the riding today. His signs are everywhere. Everywhere!
It is hard to go down a street without seeing a Banham sign. I would say that has given him enough name recognition to go head-to-head with Charlton.
08 09 07 Terry
Just driving around the riding a bit today, it looks like Banham is winning the sign war.
Red Banham signs everywhere. None for Anderson yet and only a few for Charlton. You would think that Charlton would have a lot more signs considering that she is the incumbent and has run in nearly every election since 1995.
I think the momentum is swinging here. If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have said this riding was an NDP lock, but Banham is really working hard and he seems to have a small army with him.
08 09 07 E
Charlton will hold this seat for the New Democrats, almost for certain...the Liberals, being weak nationally, will hurt Bantham here. Couple that with the fact that no one has really ever heard of Bantham, and Charlton has been so vocal on certain local issues, it's pretty much a safe bet to say that, although this will be a Grit/NDP race, Ms. Charlton will take the day.
08 08 23 Al R
Although I will be supporting the conservatives in this my home riding I think as it stands that the Liberals are in the best shape to win it.
While they may bleed votes to the conservatives over the Green Shift, Dion's leftward swing will steal NDP votes. Besides which Tyler Banham seems to be a pretty solid candidate compared to Charlton even though she is now incumbent.
08 08 17 seasaw
The Liberals should take this riding back. Chris Charlton's victory in '06 was due to two factors: sponsorship scandal and voter fatigue with the Liberals. Neither one's a factor this time around. Whether there's a Liberal or a Tory shift in the next election, this riding belongs to the Liberals.
08 08 14 R.O.
This will definitely be a hard fought riding in the next election. But it?s far from guaranteed for either party yet. It might be a safe liberal riding if they were polling really high or had an incumbent mp. But now that ndp candidate Chris Charlton has been mp for over 2 years and fact Hamilton has currently no liberal mps. Its tough to say who has the advantage here as well but mp usually does as they can send out literature thru the riding and attend a lot of events. But with ndp numbers low it will be a tough one to hold although still possible. The conservatives are also a factor here but the urban Hamilton ridings have not been an area where party has done as good as others.
08 03 06 Doug The Slug
It was all Chris Charlton could do to beat a truly awful Liberal candidate in Bill Kelly last time. Anyone who knows Hamilton knows that Beth Finney would have held on for the liberals if she'd run again. Charlton simply isn't that strong. Unlike Bill Kelly, new Liberal candidate, Tyler Banham is actually working hard to win this seat. As other correctly point out, Banham has managed to have a lot of well known MPs drop by his riding. I say that Banham will out work Charlton and Hamilton Mountain will be Liberal again in the next election. The Liberals will take back Hamilton East-Stoney Creek too.
08 02 15 Reality Check
A few things to clear up here:
1) Chris Charlton is not a strong MP. I hear a lot of people tauting her as the winner of the ‘Best up and comer on the hill,’ but if you put the contest in its proper context, the Hill Times, who ran the contest only polled staffers. The NDP staff whipped their vote, while the Conservatives and Liberals did not. That's how Charlton won.
2) Tyler Banham has a strong team around him. Don't ever doubt that.
3) Hamilton Liberals are not divided. At least not on the Mountain. The nomination race which Banham won, was decisive, not divisive. Ruby Amog is behind Banham 100% and at his side at all of his events.
4) Banham has done 7 town hall meetings since winning the nomination. He's brought down people like Justin Trudeau and Ken Dryden to speak with residents. That's a big step forward. Who has Charlton brought? No one - that's who.
5) Charlton is invisible. Her office is never opened and her staff do nothing besides refer people to David Christopherson's office. Anyone who actually needs their MP is out of luck. Charlton is never around. People have been taking record of that.
Overall, Banham is the one with the momentum here. He's brought in tons of important guests to speak with residents, has gotten tons of press coverage, has a strong team and is just waiting for the writ to drop.
Put this one in the Liberal win column. If the Liberals pick up only one seat in Hamilton, this is the one.
08 01 29 Mountain Lib
Hey Anonymous, your ISP address is showing. If you really are a ‘Mountain Liberal’ as you claim, why are you posting from Toronto? Looks like a drive by smear job to me. If this is all that the NDP have, they're going to have to try harder.
08 01 27 Hammer Politics
Anonymous first poster:
Why is a ‘liberal’ from Hamilton Mountain posting from Toronto? Sounds more like a Queen's Park hack than genuine mountain liberal, and it shows in your feeble ‘argument’ which is strong in insinuation and weak in fact.
Your first assertion, that Tyler does have the support of HM liberals is absurd. Your argument begins with a drive by, vague assault at his family's character. Your argument is unsubstantiated and merely riddled with personal anecdotes. It is common knowledge that Banham has a strong cohesive team. In an article in the Ancaster News, by Kevin Warner directly cites the importance of 'former Beth Phinney supporters' uniting behind Banham. Furthermore, the recent impressive press coverage only amplifies the buzz that he has created on the Mountain, and dispels the bizarre assessment that he 'scares away' others.
This ‘reinterpretation’ of the facts is little more than a cheap political ploy, and adds nothing to the legitimate discussion
08 01 07
As a Liberal from Hamilton Mountain I can tell that Tyler Banham won't win.
In the circles that the Banham family work within, many people are discontent and after they screwed over many people to win the nomination a lot of Liberals will flee to other ridings to help. Tyler himself is not an approachable person and mostly scares away voters. The Banham name is now weak with many Liberal in Hamilton now, I personally know that they can’t count on the support of myself or a large group of my Liberal friends.
In May 2006, Chris Charlton was named one of the best ‘Up and Comer’ MPs in the House of Commons. The NDP have made great inroads into the riding, and has many new and old strong connections to community groups, organizations and constituents. I must say from a non-partisan perspective Chris has done a lot of outreach and her constituent services have been outstanding.
From the provincial election the general idea of have NDP representation is there. Sophia Aggelonitis won merely because of the anti-faith base school funding wave of the Liberals, with only a 4% difference. So Tyler shouldn't count on her popularity for anything. The NDP brought a strong second place.
As sad as it may be the Liberal won’t win Hamilton Mountain until we get another candidate.
07 12 09 Steve V
Stephane Dion is not going win this riding, Tyler Banham is.
I originally discounted this guy until he showed up at my door in October canvassing. I asked him how long he's been canvassing and he said since he won his nomination in April! This guy is a machine.
He has had Ralph Goodale, Dion and Justin Trudeau come into the riding and got great press each time. He's got the momentum here.
07 11 30
There’s no way anyone should think that Hamilton is the only area the Liberals will possibly gain next time. This isn’t even the first most logical pick up for the Liberals in Ontario, that would be Parkdale High Park, or now Mississauga-Streetsville. As was shown provincially, the NDP are quite strong in Hamilton and 2 of the MPs are from the provincial party originally.
07 11 23 AJ
Banham has too much momentum to let this one slide back to the NDP. The recent Trudeau townhall meeting got press that Charlton could only dream of. Banham is the new media darling of Hamilton and Charlton looks too much like ‘yesterday's story’
07 11 01 Mountaineer
This one is going to be a barn-burner. As Dreschel said a while back it is a contest of the Banham Machine vs the Charlton Machine. As we've already seen in the last election, the Banham machine won and put Sophia Aggelonitis (sp?) into office. Charlton threw everything she had into the last provincial election and came up short. I expect her to come up short again.
To those who think Banhma is a ‘nobody’, think again. Perhaps he is a nobody in the public's eye but the guy is as well connected within the Liberal party as anyone can be. That's why he's been able to get Ralph Goodale to fly in from Saskatchewan to canvass the Tim Horton's with him.
Hamilton Mountain and Hamilton East Stoney Creek may be the only seats the Dion Liberals pick up in the country.
07 10 22 Ancastarian
This seat will be close. But I just don't see the Dion Liberals having the strength to defeat Chris Charlton. Hamilton Mountain is probably the weakest NDP seat in the city, but the Liberals are unorganized, demoralised, and unless Dion does really well in the debate I would leave this in the NDP column.
07 10 19 C
Tyler has been working hard since his nomination to get his name out there. It's been in the paper a few times, so I wouldn't exactly call him a nobody. The mountain has been red quite often.
07 10 14 C
I'm not too sure Charlton will hold this seat, but the Grit Candidate is pretty much a nobody, so it could be possible. Terry Anderson and the Tories have a good shot, mainly because Terry was a popular city councillor here in Hamilton for a long while. Still can't say right now, but more info to come after election called.
07 06 20 Mark Mulligan
Tyler Banham is one hell of a campaigner. Look for this riding to return to the Liberals. Beth Phinney may not have been one of the strongest MPs around, but she had one of the strongest campaign teams in the country. Most of her people are coming on side with Banham like they never did for Bill Kelly.
Move this one into the Liberal win column.
07 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Sometimes we think we come here just to read A.S.'s wonderful speeches and this time we couldn't agree more. As we know this riding well enough (Ape's brother is here and Bear's best friend is in near-by Ancaster) we see it much more like Hamilton east than anythign else. In any case, the Tory's numbers are not as good as previously though, and though this is the CPC's best bet in Hamilton, if anyone is going to steal it from the NDP, it's going to be the Liberals. We say NDP hold for now....let's wait and see.
07 04 17 A.S.
I agree that among Hamilton's ?NDP 3?, the Tories have the best chance of nabbing Hamilton Mountain; but Chris Charlton actually had a pretty decent win (by an over 5% margin) for someone long dismissed as a perennial loser. And given competition like London-Fanshawe and--yes!--HE-SC, plus the special Gerard-i-fied case of Parkdale-High Park, I wouldn't even stoop to calling it ?most delicate? among Ontario's NDP seats, unless it's about *all* the wind being in the Tory sails and an ex-councillor star doing a better Gerard number on Chris C. than Gerard does on Peggy Nash. (Look, the *Grits* tried with a couldn't-lose star councillor in '06.) In fact, this ?most delicate? judgment is based upon a misreading of the seat, as if what pertained S of the Linc pertained throughout the whole riding; but the actual population/electoral centre of gravity--for the NDP especially--is N of the Linc, which is much more consistent with the broad-based working-class c20 bungalowburbia downhill. And there's a *long* tradition of NDP electability here--in fact, under Ian Deans, this was Steeltown's sole federal NDP seat in the 80s. And such strength even carries through a bit by proxy into the newer neighbourhoods, and probably all the more so with an incumbent in place now. It's hardly Ancaster, let alone Oakville. That said, just being a class-of-06 Dipper renders Charlton generically vulnerable; but not as abjectly as some might wish...
07 04 14 Citoyen Dion
I must disagree respectfully Bear & Ape; while your thinking will probably hold in HE-SC, Hamilton Mountain is a much different riding from the downtown ridings. The escarpment is more similar to areas like Ancaster, Stoney Creek proper and Oakville. The NDP won this seat last time because it is one of the few in the country where the NDP can actually pull off a federal win, although it is probably the most delicate Ontario holding they have right now. If the CPC continues to poll in the high 40s here, and with a former councillor running for them, they will not simply surpass the Liberals in support, but likely take a bulk of that Liberal base along the southern parts of the riding (south of Stone Church) to win the riding.
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Like Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, we're making a controversial NDP prediction. A stronger CPC in the 905 will pull votes away from the Liberals but not enough to surpass the NDP, who are fairly solid in this blue collar town. Again, we say call us crazy if you will, but it's how we see it right now.

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