Prediction Changed
3:30 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Braid, Peter
Corbiere, Mark
Cousineau, Jason
Canadian Action
Huntingdon, Kyle James
New Democratic
Jacobsen, Cindy
MacLellan, Cathy
Portillo, Ramon
Telegdi, Andrew

Hon. Andrew Telegdi

2006 Result:
Andrew Telegdi**
Ajmer Mandur
Edwin Laryea
Pauline Richards

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 15 Whitebus
I think the Telegdi campaign knew this was going to be a nail-biter long before the rest of the world.
Polls consistently showed the Conservatives leading in Ontario, but most seat prediction sites still had the Liberals taking more seats. It didn't make sense and this one is just a demonstration of that.
There's going to be a recount, but don't count on a change, this one's now blue.
08 10 13 KW Conscience
I am surprised reading that some believe that the Conservative candidate can take this riding. 12000 vote difference in the last election, and a new candidate against a very tough, very well-spoken incumbent. I believe that the Greens will siphon some votes, but from all the parties, SPECIFICALLY, the NDP. The NDP candidate is not a strong candidate, and the Greens have the opposite. My prediction is definitely a Liberal win (again), followed by the Conservatives (still 9000 votes behind), and then the Greens sneaking past the NDP for third. But the third place race will be EXTREMELY close!
08 10 12 Swift
The Conservative predictors here are confusing an improvement with a win. I expect a closing of the gap by 4000 to 6000 votes, but that's not going to be enough. Big gains by either the Greens or the NDP are not going to happen, just because of the character of the riding and the strength of Telegdi and the Conservative organization. This is one to watch next time even if Telegdi runs again.
08 10 01 OutAndAbout
I would have to agree. Signs for the liberals have definitely increased since the first week of the campaign but they have each party. The reason I believe this riding MIGHT go CPC is that the CPC momentum is keeping up with Telegedi. As well the greens and NDP appear to be siphoning off soft liberals.
08 10 04 MP
I see no reason why this riding would be close barring some major change in the polls or a major gaffe either at the local or national level. Overcoming a 12,000 vote advantage would be tough under any circumstances and would probably require an outgoing incumbent, a challenger with a couple of campaigns worth of experience, or some other major factor. I don't see that happening here(despite the Liberals overall collapse, they are still relatively strong in Ontario).
A couple of notes from living in the riding:
Andrew Telegdi made a major gaffe in his closing statement at one local debate. He said, ‘And I agree with Elizabeth May that we need to ELECT Stephen Harper as Prime Minister’ Either he meant to say EJECT or he meant to say Stephane Dion instead of Harper.
That might come back to haunt him but I doubt a little ‘gotcha’ politics will make much difference. Everyone knows what he meant to say.
If it's actually possible this may be one riding where there are FOUR parties splitting votes on the ‘left’(or ‘progressive’). Peter Braid is casting himself as ‘tolerant, forward-looking, environmentally sustainable and economically strong’(from his website, so this may be posturing more than anything.) Also remember that this is the provincial riding of Red Tory Elizabeth Witmer. Anyone who thinks vote splitting on the ‘left’ will allow the CP to move up the middle isn't reading this riding correctly.
Last provincial election the NDP riding association really got itself organized and was able to increase their vote by 3,000. I suspect they could do much better under a well run federal NDP campaign with Jack Layton polling high. I've also seen many NDP signs around the riding. Understanding that change in votes usually takes several years of planning they could conceivably challenge the conservatives for 2nd in the riding.
This is quickly becoming one of the better organized Green Party ridings in Canada. Last year the federal party held their campaign school in KW with Elizabeth May, Adrianne Carr, and Jim Harris attending. Two universities and a college in the riding don't hurt as well(although a lot of students vote in home ridings). What it does bring, however, is a strong campaign team which this riding definitely has. For example for the leaders debate last Thursday they had 30+ volunteers and supporters out for an event. With increased Green support nationally and a good ground campaign look for them to double their vote to 10,000.
Long term this could become a strong Green riding.
08 10 02 Full Name
This riding is going to be close. Telegdi is a tough incumbent to beat but it's clear this is the biggest challenge he's faced since being elected. If his loses a big enough chunk of his vote to the other left-leaning parties, he could conceivably lose.
I'm not ready to call this one for the CPC yet but anyone who thinks this one is going to be a cakewalk for Telegdi is kidding themselves.
08 10 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Yeah we heard it from you first and we're gonna be the first to say you're nuts if you think the CPC will take this. Seriously! A riding where the Liberal incumbent got 12K+ votes over his nearest rival? A riding where the CPC have a new candidate? You know the Liberals WILL win some ridings that are not in the GTA, Montreal or Atlantic Canada. This WILL be one of them. Telegdi has been written off before in previous electionprediction-go-rounds and he has always held firm. He ain't going anywhere different this time.
08 09 30 Jason Archambault
The Greens and NDP are going to eat heavily into Telegdi's vote, allowing the Tory to squeak through. You heard it here first.
08 09 27 Seeing_Red
Correct me if I'm wrong but the conservatives have had a different candidate here in each of the past two elections, and now another one this time around. They always get votes from the rigidly conservative crowd but don't seem to convert the liberals here with their fairweather candidates. The community here respects Telegdi.
08 09 22 J.G.
This is obviously a Liberal-leaning riding but it may be end up going to the CPC. Three reasons: first, the Tory candidate is a moderate, which will appeal to the Liz Witmer crowd; second, the Greens seem to be making serious inroads which should split the vote and bring the Tories within striking distance; and finally, Andrew Telegdi seems to have worn out his welcome. All indications are his campaign is a mess and his maverick persona is useless in opposition. Not that Karen Redman would mind being the only Grit left in the area....
08 09 20 Around K-W
I too have been through several areas of Waterloo and have noticed more CPC signs, with the exception of Old Westmount and proximity, where the Liberal signs are large and outnumber others. I have even seen Liberal and GP signs on the same properties which leads me to believe they are GP supporters willing to go Liberal. I suspect that the Liberal supporters here are longtime residents, in established neighbourhoods and don't whip up a sign whenever there's an election. They support Telegdi and get on with it, not bothering with signs. I do live in this area also.
08 09 15 some guy
Agreed about the sign point. There are many more CPC than Liberal signs at least in west Waterloo, even on private property.
08 09 15 OutAndWatching
While driving around... I haven't seen a single sign save for CPC. Although Andrew has great popularity in this riding, there isn't much visible support this time around.
07 11 28 seasaw
Liberal Hold unless Mr. Talegdi decides to retire. This is not a Liberal riding, it's Andrew Talegdi's riding. It is one of the few ridings in Ontario where people vote for the person not the party.Mr. Talegdi and Ms Witmer are both good people, one's a Conservative, the other a Liberal. Prior to Talegdi and Witmer, the former riding, which consists of the majority of the new riding, voted for Liberal Herb Epp provincially and Conservative Walter McLean federally. The seats switched parties, when the two gentlemen decided to retire.
07 04 22 A.S.
Judging from previous EPP go-arounds, ?isn't overly hated? is stretching it--not that it's the (unbiased?) final authority on Telegdi's (un?)popularity. Yet there's the latent promise of a Kanata-esque ?tech-Tory? undercurrent here in RIM country, with Elizabeth Witmer's provincial representation tossed in for good measure--maybe that's why CPC made a ballyhooed postmodern-politics play with a Sikh candidate, Ajmer Mandur, last time out. Unfortunately, that overidealistic gamble probably explains why the Tories lost ground in K-W in '06 (and, maybe, why Edwin Laryea was the only Waterloo Region NDPer to gain ground--for anti-Grits, is an Afro-Canadian a more palatable option than an Indo-Canadian?). Just because Waterloo's got a big university demo and a Silicon Valley undercurrent doesn't mean it's *that* electorally progressive. So, the ugly skew of ethno-racial politics may lie behind why Telegdi's currently sitting on, rather incredibly, the best Ontario Grit share outside of the inner GTA--and that also means greater likelihood of greater falloff...
07 03 24 M. Lunn
As much as Warren Kinsella may hate the guy, this is a very safe Liberal riding at the federal level and Andrew Telegedi isn't overly hated here. This has two universities in it and being largely urban unlike the others in Southwestern Ontario, the Liberals should hold this with no trouble.

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