Prediction Changed
3:33 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Rathwell, Ernest Oliver
Reid, Scott
Remington, David
Walker, Chris
New Democratic
Willard, Sandra

Scott Reid

2006 Result:
Scott Reid **
Geoff Turner
Helen Forsey
Mike Nickerson
Jeffrey Bogaerts
Ernest Rathwell
Jerry Ackerman

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 19 Gone Fishing
1) the tally is nearly 2 votes for Reid to every 1 vote for ANYONE else in the last contest,
2) this is a gain from the 10,000 vote of 2004
3) The Lanark part of the riding elected a REFORM Scott Reid in 2000 and the reform party placed strong in the other redistributed areas.
4) The Liberals are not exactly going after the right wing vote.
5) There is no other right wing party to choose.
When you consider all this, wrap it up, put a bow on it and present it to Scott. He isn't going to lose this one anytime soon.
If this seat were in Calgary it wouldn't be any safer for the Conservatives.
When you say the Liberals have a good chance here, are you referring to the chance they have of getting their deposit back?
08 12 15 Always Right
Better Informed just took the cake for the most ridiculous prediction on this site so far in this election. He might as well have said that Toronto Centre was going Conservative. The weight of this riding is not in Napanee or in the south as it was in the past - it lies in Smiths Falls, Perth, and Lanark County, which is as true-blue Conservative as Scarborough is blood-red Liberal. Even in the south of the riding, there are MANY traditional dyed-in-the-wool Tories who would never vote Liberal in a million years, notwithstanding the popularity of Mr. Remington. Combined with the fact that he has zero name recognition outside of south L & A, and it becomes clear that Remington needs to take his ball and go home. Next to Cheryl Gallant's seat, this is the safest seat that the CPC has in Ontario and both parties know it.
08 09 10 Better Informed
There is still a good chance for David Remington to take this riding. He was well liked when he was a mayor of Napanee and that will still help him. Additionally, he will be viewed to be more helpful to Napanee then Scott Reid has been. There have been few 'sightings' of Mr Reid and Napanee and cases brought to his office have been known to not be dealt with perfectly.
If he can convince a few voters to the north of the riding to vote for him, he will take it.
08 04 01 R.O.
Not sure if I would compare the recent provincial results here to a future federal race. For a couple of reasons those being. The riding was vacant before the provincial vote so there was no incumbent advantage a big factor in a rural riding. Randy Hillier was the pc candidate but he had to win a competitive nomination so there might have been some who choose not to work for him. And conservatives even in rural ridings usually do not win big when they first win usually the races are fairly close and tight also was a tough election. All things to consider before we start comparing the 2. this has or at least the northern part of the riding been Scott Reids since 2000 when he was first elected and he is fairly well known by now. Anyways in the next election both liberals and ndp are running new candidates here David Remington liberal and Sandra Willard ndp.
07 10 28 binriso
Provincially the Liberals came within a hair of winning this riding(about 900 votes or ~2%), but federally it seems very strong and should send the CPC back with another 50% + win here.
07 04 10 A.S.
Funny; when I think of the traditional Tory tenor of Lanark County, I think of something more Scots Presbyterian than Catholic. In fact, ‘lots and lots of Catholics’ (i.e. the sort who once might have seemed monolithically Liberal) don't factor into LFLA the way they do in other Ottawa/St. Lawrence border seats; and the most presently non-Tory parts are explained more by Loyalist moderation and a certain exurban Kingston effect. Perhaps it's most interesting to note that even though he wasn't running against an incumbent any longer, Scott Reid only went from a point below 50% in '04 to a point above 50% in '06--evidently, there was still cold feet about those ReformAlliancey Harper Tories, even here in their Ontario heartland. (In fact, it was Eugene Forsey's daughter Helen who absorbed a lot of the Liberal seepage, scoring an astronomical-for-these-parts 16% for the NDP.) So, keep that in mind if you're expecting Lanark County percentages writ large here--what happens in Lanark, stays in Lanark...
07 04 08 Brian Appel
Reid has some pretty right-wing views, but they don't seem to hurt him much in this rural riding. Lots of agriculture, lots of small towns and lots and lots of Catholics. Short of Avril Lavigne running in the next election, Reid's going back to Ottawa.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Contrary to what some think, the Liberals are actually quite strong in the eastern parts of Lennox & Addington Counties as well as Frontenac County. However, with the Tories getting the 60s and 70s in Lanark County, while the Liberals down in the Teens there, that pretty much ensures the Tories will easily take this. In fact the re-distribution is the main thing that cost Larry McCormack his seat and will likely cost Leona her seat provincially next election.
07 03 24 Daniel
Reid has been an MP since the days of the Alliance, and this riding went comfortably Conservative last time around (again). Conservative hold.

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