Prediction Changed
3:33 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Armstrong, Steve
Brown, Gord
Loveys, Marjory
Progressive Canadian
McCrea, John
Warnock, Jeanie

Gord Brown

2006 Result:
Gord Brown **
Bob Eaton
Steve Armstrong
David Lee

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 05 James
It looks as if Stephen Harper's bid for a majority will fail. It's 1 week to go and he's still, riding-wise, about 14 seats shy of his majority. Something big has got to happen now for it to swing in his favour and I don't see that happening given Stephane Dion's above-expectations debate performances. The result here in Leeds-Grenville is a foregone Conservative conclsuion but, if it is unlikely a Harper majority will form, then the Anybody But Conservative push is a moot point and I think people will feel free to vote their conscience and not strategically. The result? Far more Green party votes (but not seats) than ever before and in this riding, I am predicting the Greens will come in second, an historic gain.
08 09 12 RedFish?BlueFish?
Brown will get re-elected with a lead of 18-22 thousand votes, mostly due to the falling Liberals who will be in a tough three way race for second place. Marjory Loveys is a better choice than DuHammel-Yellowhorn, but she's still hopeless. In her acceptance speech she refered to Belleville (3 Ridings over) instead of Brockville. Disaster with a lead parachute. Hey Old Friend, stop reading this and go knock on some doors.
08 09 12 Bernard Manning
The Grits have finally found themselves a candidate in a 2-way contest between females. Marjory Loveys, an Ottawa resident, worked in the PMO during Chretien's tenure, turned over Merrickville-area resident and exotically named Paula du Hamel Yellow Horn at a nomination meeting Weds night. Good luck. Yet another rural Eastern Ontario riding a long-time hold for the Liberals 88-00 gone 55% for the CPC in 06.
08 03 15 Matt
Being the campaign manager for the Green Party in this riding you would expect my opinion to be somewhat biased however I'm going to tell you the truth.
-Gord Brown will keep his support, or fall ever so slightly.
-Bob Eaton has announced (today actually) that he will not seek the Liberal nomination however two women are. One I suspect is Lori Bryden, the last provincial candidate. (who didn't do so great.)
-Steve Armstrong did not sleepwalk to 15% in 2006, thats for sure. They had spent 7,500.00 and ran a very liked candidate who is also the union leader of the Dupont plant and (I think) is a life time resident.
-Jeanie Warnock will run for the Greens. She ran provincially where she placed third ahead of the NDP spending just 2,500.00! (again I was the campaign manager) Anyway, federally we have an EDA with a bank account that has a good sized bank account and will be able to run a much more professional campaign.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
Not only did this riding almost go Alliance in 2000, but Gord Brown was the candidate that time around! Even right here on electionprediction there were many who thought he could win that election back in 2000. They were almost right. Jump ahead half a dozen years, and you see apx 5000 votes, separating not the Conservative from the Liberal, but 5000 votes separating the Conservative from all other parties combined in this riding. The math says it all, Conservative Victory.
07 05 08 A.S.
It was nearly the third Ontario Alliance seat in 2000; it'll likely be one of the final three Ontario survivors in case the Alliance's CPC successors crash. If there was any surprise in the '06 stat, it's that the NDP, with virtually no history here (not even provincially in 1990), actually managed to sleepwalk into breaking the 15% ceiling; together with Green, that was good for an astronomical 21% ‘united left’ vote, 3 points short of the Grits. In Leeds-Grenville. Wow. Keep that mind in case we're polling 30-30-20-10-10 among the five parties...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
If the Tories could win with over 50% in 2004, there is no reason to say they won't win this again.
07 03 25 G. Kennedy (not that one)
Gord Brown was *thisclose* to being the third Alliance MP from Ontario in 2000. He'll have no trouble whatsoever earning a third term.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster