Prediction Changed
6:03 PM 11/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ambrogio, Mary Lou
Gauthier, Jacquie
New Democratic
Mathyssen, Irene
O'Neail, Daniel
Christian Heritage
Vanderhoeven, Leonard

Irene Mathyssen

2006 Result:
Irene Mathyssen
Glen Douglas Pearson
Dan Mailer
David McLaughlin

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 prognosticator15
I think this site gives a correct prediction for Mathyssen. I do not agree just because another NDP candidate from the neighboring riding (Peter Ferguson) already gave Mathyssen victory in this riding over a year ago on this page by describing how great she is compared to her opponents(hardly an unbiased opinion), but because she has an incumbent edge. Layton runs a very effective campaign, and the NDP would not be able to form official opposition only because of many left voters perceiving at least a theoretical possibility of Liberals forming the government. But here Mathysen is an incumbent! I am confident now in the Conservative minority outcome (definitely not the majority!), but this will hardly help Ambrogio. People in this economically diverse riding for the most part worry about their retirement savings and incomes, are angry at the government, and not impressed by the Liberals either (the dreadful Carbon Tax reducing people's incomes etc.). A very good job creation figure for the Canadian economy the Prime Minister now crows about (just came out in the past two days) is lost in the big headlines of the market declines. And the population in this riding is not the most educated to sift through all the numbers anyway. I actually think with the Liberal incumbent Conservatives would have had a better chance of gaining a seat. Jack Layton should seal the job for Mathysen with his visit this weekend (is he here on Sunday?) I do not expect a Liberal to go far in this race, Ambrogio should finish second. This is just a guess, of course, and anything can happen, for example, further revival in Conservative fortunes in Ontario affecting this race. With very little time left in the campaign (only turkey dinner discussion are still ahead, literally), it should be a good guess.
08 10 11 Jeff G
Late this week I received a Ambrogio specific mass mailing and there was a possible Mathyssen campaign doorstep visit. I live in one of the better neighbourhoods of this riding, so there will be turnout from here.
I'm somewhat perplexed by this situation. I voluntered for a campaign in '04 ago in a different riding. We had fewer resources than any of these three contenders and only a few regular volunteers (I imagine fewer than any of the three contenders in this riding). Mathyssen won by 3% in '06. In the campaign I participated in we outperformed the expected numbers (previous elections and nearby ridings) by significantly more than that due to our efforts and yet had no real shot in the riding. A similar team did it again in '06. Obviously there is more to a campaign than at the doorstep and signs on lawns, but it would seem that none of them can be bothered to go after that last few percent to add to their vote totals.
08 10 08 Moriarty
Okay, that was weird...less than a day after my post regarding the folks at that site put L-F back on their list. I still think this is an NDP hold.
08 10 07 Moriarty
The folks behind have removed London Fanshawe from its list of ridings for Strategic Voting. I believe this can be interpreted as the seat being a lock for Irene. At the very least it means that these folks are not very concerned about Ambrogio's chances. Prediction NDP Hold.
08 09 28 B.O.
Yes Irene Mathyssen was an MPP, ?Jessica Simpson vs Homer Simpson?. Not for London--Fanshawe but for the former provincial riding of Middlesex. She was an NDP MPP for Middlesex from 1990 to 1995 in Bob Rae's NDP government. In any event this riding is too close to call. The Conservatives were a close third last time and the political situation means they could come over the top this time. The Liberals have the potential to come third in this riding but maybe not. However, I'd give Mathyssen the slight edge here due to her incumbency and personal popularity.
08 09 28 Jeff G
For a supposed battleground, the parties do not appear to be well organized. As another person stated Mathyssen signs were up before all others. Some time went by and then Gauthier signs appeared and after a little longer Ambrogio signs joined the fray. I live in this riding and I yet to receive any campaign literature or evidence of visits to my house. I thought a well run campaign involved two visits to every house in the riding.
The Conservatives have sent out multiple mass mailings over the course of the last year. I am not certain if every riding has experienced this treatment or if specific ridings are targeted.
08 09 27 LondonPolitico
In terms of this riding, GoneFishing has made some careful observations. Irene and Mary Lou do indeed have more political experience in the party/political fray.. but London has gone with people before that have star power or some sort of other quality that make them appealing.
This riding seems to have grown up a bit and started bucking the national trend, or moreso, the area trend.
I think who wins depends on a few factors:
- Can Irene's team GOTV on E-Day?
- Will Mary Lou be able to attract the riding's Italian and Portuguese communities to vote Conservative?
- Can Jacquie gain displeased NDP voters in the final days, or NDPers worried about a Harper win?
Who knows.. I have a feeling that the NDP and Liberal effort will split the leftist vote, and Mary Lou will win.. but her victory won't be astounding.. think ‘Landslide Annie’ (Maclennan) in Edmonton.
08 09 27 Jessica Simpson vs Homer Simpson
Gone Fishing is wrong. Irene Mathyssen ran in a lot of provincial elections but was NEVER an MPP. If Gone Fishing knew this riding, he would know that. This riding has as a lot of potential Liberal votes in it and an unknown Conservatives candidate in Mary Lou Ambrogio. The mostly working class voters in this riding don't vote Conservative so no chance of them coming up the middle. Of the London ridings, the Greens have their best candidate and are running their best campaign in London-Fanshawe. No doubt the Greens will take some votes from the Liberals but they take more from the NDP. Irene Mathyssen proved in 2006 if you run enough times you eventually win one. It's going to be very tough for her to hold. This riding looks Liberal.
08 09 27 PB
It looks like Willie is doing analysis on the previous election...The Liberals are polling lower provincially and the NDP are up. All the polling suggests the Greens are pulling vote as much from the Liberals as any other party. The Conservatives can't be discounted, but Irene now has the advantage of incumbency. She'll have to work hard, but the NDP have the luxury of concentrating their efforts here. NDP should hold this.
08 09 26 Gone Fishing
A strong Liberal candidate?
What the heck does that mean?
Irene Mattheyson has been an MP, an MPP and a seasoned campaigner
Mary Lou Ambrogio has been a Conservative organizer and riding president.
Both of these women are respected and committed to their party.
Gauthier? I don't recall her name involved in politics before the Liberals brought her out. As someone that listens to her program every morning I don't get the political appeal. Becasue she has a morning drive radio show she is a strong candidate? WHERE has she ever been on record before this campaign on any issue?
08 09 25 bam
this is a dipper hold. I think you will see a rise in irene's votes as well as a rise in conservative and green votes and you will see libs come in 3rd. It's possible since the libs have a strong candidate that they will hold on to second but it's hard to say at this time
08 09 25
This is the most Liberal of the London ridings, but the Conservatives can win here due to the three-way splits that have become common here. With the NDP doing well this election and the Liberals losing support I expect that Mathyseen will pick up a lot of former Liberal votes here and win.
08 09 25 Shotgun Willie
This is one of the more interesting riding in Ontario with people making points for all three parties. I believe that demographics are a key to the final outcome in London-Fanshawe. Anyone who knows London is aware that Fanshawe is the more working class section of the city. It is that working class group that gives the NDP a base from which to work with and allowed Irene Mathysson to win in 2006. It's the demographics in this riding that lead me to believe that the Conservatives are not going to win Fanshawe but I think they will increase their vote total as Dan Mailer is a credible candidate. I believe Conservatives have a better chance of victory in the other London ridings, again based on demographics. The challenge facing Irene Mathysson is trying to stop bleeding votes to the Green Party who have so far run a very visible campaign here. For the Liberals, Glen Pearson must stop his vote from bleeding to the Conservatives. In the end I believe Irene Mathysson will bleed more votes to the Green Party than Glen Pearson will bleed votes to the Conservatives leaving London-Fanshawe in the Liberal column. No matter who wins this riding, their vote total will be less than the 16,000 Irene Maythysson received in 2006. This will be close.
08 09 23 Gone Fishing
Jack, a great rebuttal, it is a pleasure to have intelligent conversation even when you disagree with someone. Thank you for that pun about fish as well points well scored.
Again, I must question a statement you made. The last councillor to lose re-election? In 2006 the only councilor going down to defeat was Ab Chabar. A cousin of his ran as a Liberal candidate in a recent federal electoin. I am not saying Ab is a liberal but he is not the most right wing of people either. However my point is that winning as a conservative in local politics is no small feat and Paul has done that twice so he has traction.
To my memory the only councillor to lose re-election in 2003 would be Ed Corrigan in the 2003 election. Checking his voting record I think he qualifies as somewhat of a liberal. he lost in 2003 to none other than ... Paul Van Meerbergen.
Look I am just saying this could go to the Conservatives it is not a lock. I am dismissing the byelection win for three reasons;
1) It was a byelection and the constituency was voting against the conservative brass for a parachute candidate. The campaign fumbled and stumbled while local people were not on the ground as the people in Ottawa thought they knew better. Bad management but then again everyone makes mistakes, I don't think people in the riding are willing to punish the Conservatives again given this candidate has been on the ground for some time.
2) The riding byelectoin came about because of a decision by a long term liberal to run for municipal mayorship which he lost. Joe Fontana was a rat-packer from way back and very popular in the community but his star faded immediately in the mayoral campaign. Pearson was confirming the electorates choice of a liberal from only a few months earlier in the general election of 2006.
3) The green phenomenon was in full bloom. This will be looked at down the road as the high mark of Liz May's career as the greens will not elect any members anywhere this time. The NDP had a big gun of their own as well and her campaign was only less faulty than the Conservatives.
Finally voter fatigue plays her more than any other riding because of what I have written above. Should the Tories move toward a majority this is a riding where people can say enough is enough.
Values? I think Glenn's values are impeccable. I am not so sure the Liberals have a lock on values other than the value of corruption. There are people who have values that when the rhetoric fades are very friendly to the CPC policies.
08 03 01 Pierre from Québec
It will be very difficult for Irene to get reelected. This is the only seat I think the NDP is going to lose in Ontario. The Liberals have a strong tradition in this ridding. I would put this in the Liberal column. If Jack Layton takes some time to campaign here, it is still possible a very narrow victory for the Dippers.
08 09 12 swinger
This is a riding that only the Green party can vote strategically, with the votes being so close, the green party holds the balance of power, the Green can prevent a Conservative majority here by voting Liberal. Conservatives won't vote strategically here because they have a good chance to win, as do the N.D.P. So that just Leaves Green to be the spoiler here.
08 09 11 fanshawe resident
Almost a week in and the only signs to be seen on lawns are Irene Mathyssen.
Neither of the other two candidates has the profile or qualifications of Dan Mailer (Conservative) or Glen Pearson (Liberal) who challenged Irene last time, so I doubt either can seriously challenge her this time. I have voted for all three parties in the past, but Irene gets my vote this time and I expect she will win by more than she did last time.
08 09 10 Jason B
This is going to be a very close riding, but I think that Irene will hold on. She is one of the most active of all London MPs. You don't just hear from Irene when an election comes around, she's constantly in the news, and she's constantly keeping her constituents aware that she's alive and working hard on their behalf in Ottawa. I think Gauthier's name recognition will help the Liberals make this a battle. Also, Irene has a very experienced campaign team.
08 09 06 Gone Fishing
The Conservatives have just chosen Mary Lou Ambroggio as their candidate in this riding. Mary Lou is someone who I think is very well liked in conservative circles and can hold her on on policy debate. She has been active as a EDA president elsewhere in the city and should be able to use that capital to bring out volunteers and cash from London West who have no interest in electing Liberal (sue barnes) or liberal light (ed holder). If it gets to a mudfest between Libs and NDP and she can steer clear of it she has a shot. That said she oversaw a rowdy group in London West and I am not sure she can reign in things if they spiral out of control during the campaign.
My talking points of last night remain, if there is a strong Conservative sweep to a Mulroney/Diefenbaker type of coalition Mary Lou is very likely put over the top. If not status quo means Irene keeps her seat. I still can't see a Liberal surge in the polls but if it happens that sure Jackie gets it.
This is too close to call only because we need to see where things go nationally and becomes a bellwether depending on that trend.
Minority Conservative - Irene Mattheyson wins
Minority Liberal - Iren or Jackie Gauthier
Majority - The party that wins it wins London Fanshawe.
I'm calling this for the conservatives on two points. 1) They managed to get a decent candidate and 2) I happen to believe the latest Leger polls in Quebec are the sign of a trend.
08 09 05 Gone Fishing
Gauthier is not exactly a ?nobody that no-one listens to?. Of course some people simply say no-one when they mean ?I don't? Anyway, I digress.
This is an interesting riding. I think Matheyson has a very real chance of holding this seat. London is a city of complacency. London once was known as a bellwether area but I think the former will prevail. London has councillors who were on the ballot when the glaciers retreated. Rarely do we clamour for change and Irene has done nothing to encourage any change. Her scantily clad woman laptop fiasco is long over and not at all cared about.
IF there is a liberal surge I could see Gauthier going over the top the same way I could see whomever the Conservatives finally nominate. However, this is only the case if one of the parties is clearly headed for a majority. If not a dipper MP here matches the Lib in London West and one or two conservatives in the surrounding area. In short a pizza parliament and a pizza division in London remains - maybe we are still bellwether?
Let there be no delusions of a NDP breakthrough, just a reasonable chance at a hold.
08 09 04 W. Druer
This riding is an easy pick, with Irene Mathyssen returning to office by at least double the margin of victory she had in the last election.
The Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate since the last one quit, and the Liberal candidate is a virtual nobody. The Liberal ran a firefighter/foodbank director in the last campaign and still lost, some local radio host of a station no one listens too isn't going to do it. Mathyssen on the other hand, attends all kinds of community functions, makes herself available through townhall meetings and sends back hand written letters when you write to her on her newsletter mail back cards.
08 06 02 T.V.
This is one of the Liberals' most likely pickups. Most people consider Irene Mathyssen's win last time to be a bit of a fluke in a very good year for the NDP. At least in Ontario, that's not likely to be repeated. As long as they don't run a terrible campaign, the Liberals should win. A Tory win isn't out of the question, but not very likely either.
08 04 10 Doug The Slug
The question then is whether Liberal Gauthier loses any votes on the right to the Conservative Jordan Katz. I'm not seeing a lot of Conservative cabinet ministers in London handing out cheques these days as this doesn't seem to be a targetted area for Stephen Harper and his team. This makes me believe that the Liberals won't be losing a lot of votes to the Conservatives and Gauthier beats Maytheyssen in a close race.
08 04 01 R.O.
Well an interesting 3 way race is going to take place here. With ndp numbers in Ontario slightly up its possible Irene Mathyssen puts up a stronger fight here than expected. But this seat is such an untraditional ndp seat its hard to say if she could hold it. The liberals will clearly target it since its an urban riding they previously held although there new candidate Jackie Gauthier is not exactly well known on the political scene yet and party is not gaining much ground in the polls from last election. conservatives will be running a new candidate Jordan Katz. The conservatives I could picture them taking maybe 1 seat out of the 3 city ridings. But not really sure which one is most likely. But for the time being London fanshawe remains an odd 3 way race without a real favorite
08 03 15 Curley, Larry and Moe
Irene Mathyssen proved that if you run for public office enough times, you eventually get lucky and win. All three of us have heard that a lot of traditional Liberal vote stayed home in London-Fanshawe last time as they were unhappy with the outgoing government. Irene just happened to be in the right place at the right time as Conservative Dan Mailer ended up being a bust as a candidate meaning the Consevatives didn't do enough to be competative. Things will be a lot different in London this time around. The Liberals are without a doubt energized. Fundraising in London is up as is the membership. Meanwhile the NDP are simply treading water, hoping things break right again. We all agree that London-Fanshawe goes back to the Liberals this time out.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
London has a large university and college vote and those people understand what strategic voting is all about. Conservatives in Fanshawe know the only way to get rid of Irene M. is to vote Liberal. The Liberals know they have a very good shot at taking back this riding so their vote is motivated. Meanwhile, Jack Layton and the NDP are going to get squeezed out as Canadians decide whether they want a Conservative or Liberal minority government. Irene is going down and I predict she returns to her provincial NDP roots and runs for Howie Hampton in 2011.
08 02 19 City Slicker
Wow! I can't believe all the posters here who are too afraid to make a prediction for London-Fanshawe. Mathyeson ran for a seat so many times here (both federal and provincial) that she finally got lucky. Irene's luck runs out this April when votes here return to the Liberals in an attempt to knock Harper and the Conservatives out of power. Look for Mathyson to run here again after she gets beat. What else has she got to do?
08 12 30 A.S.
I, too, don't want to jump the gun in declaring Irene M. toast. However, as I earlier speculated on Jeff Watson's ‘third-place incumbent’ potential in Essex, I'd probably place her ahead in that light now--yes, the laptop thing might play a part, at least in a Rae-Government-redux way of sobering London voters away from this electing-an-NDPer-to-Ottawa experiment. But also watch the national polls, especially if NDP remains mired in mid-teens and the Greens continue to crest double digits--sure, eMay's LNC byelection run (and the NDP's 4th-place shellacking) was a unique circumstance, but it seems to have left its honeymoonish aftereffect on the last provincial election results. How much of that can an actual NDP incumbent in London deflect? Finally, the most banal foundation for third-place-incumbent potential: both Liberals and Conservatives are viable here...
07 12 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Every time we hear someone predicting the demise of an MP based on something foolish that was said or done, we can't help but think of one particular line of dialogue uttered by Cruella DeVile in the movie 101 Dalmations. In it she says, ‘Hang the papers! It'll be forgotten tomorrow!’ Too true and this can be applied to the Mathyssen naughty photo fiasco. By the time an election has rolled around it'll have been forgotten. If it becomes a focus of the local election campaign, then you can be sure that the voters will be quite irritated and it would probably damage any candidate that dwells on the issue. No, this riding is up for grabs, not because of the recent blunder but because of the diverse voting pattern that already existed. This gaff my hurt Mathyssen a little but we're not saying it'll be the cause of her downfall (or even a major factor). Wait until the election is called and we can see how the parties are doing overall before anyone can reasonably make a prediction here.
07 12 22 binriso
Probably Liberal, they have a good candidate but they did last time too and he lost by about 900 votes. Mathyssen’s comments about James Moore are going to hurt her obviously (it looks bad, and image is everything in politics). One other point: On other websites I’ve seen the CPC vote total 12100 or so but here its 13495. I dunno which is right. 3 way race for sure here, probably only 3 or 4000 votes separating 1st and 3rd.
07 12 06 BJ
It seems that Mathyssen's only accomplishment as an MP has been the parliamentary laptop snoop. With those national credentials and the embarrassment it has likely caused her constituents, this riding is now up for grabs.
07 12 06 SCW
Mathyssen has been all but invisible as a rookie MP until she was valted onto the national stage for falsely accusing another MP of 'looking at Porn' on his lap top.
Given how close this vote was last time out, I think this incident has sunk her chances of being re-elected. The last past provincial election result (NDP came in third) demonstrated that the NDP brand in this riding is not what put Irene over the top last was her personal likeability. I doubt she'll have that to bank on next time out.
I'm convinced this riding will now flip back Liberal - popular local radio host Jackie Gauthier will squeeze past the unknown Conservative candidate and the newly disgraced Irene Mathyssen.
07 12 03 seasaw
Liberal gain. Whenever there's an incumbent Tory government, as there is now, and there is a close election race, as we will probably have this time, most NDP held ridings, such as this one, tend to go to the Liberals, and I don't think this one'll be an exception.
07 10 15 T.V.
Mathyssen barely won, the NDP vote is down, and the Liberals are going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at taking this back. Incumbency will help her, but she was already pretty high profile.
07 07 29 Bettle Bailey
The next election will be the first time in years that there will be no Liberal incumbent government during the campaign. This will result in at least 1000-1500 vote swing between liberal/conservative. Another point this riding is getting richer with the huge new homes being built in the eartern part of the riding, and we know these people will never vote NDP.
Finally the greens will improve because people are naive, and dont realized that this will de-elect NDPs across the country.
This is going to be a squeaker, and with the incumbent CPC govt.
predition CPC 32, NDP 31, LIB 29, GREEN 8

07 05 13 A.S.
They did it, they actually did it. Who'd have imagined, a generation ago, than a fed Dipper Ontario caucus-of-a-dozen would include a London seat in its ranks? Irene Mathyssen stands as proof that if you try often enough, sooner or later you might make it--but let's get real; she still only holds a 34.5% share, and less than 6 points separate the three major parties (and in the advance polls, the Tories won and NDP came third). And sure, victory/incumbency may hypothetically now ‘validate’ the NDP in London-Fanshawe; but Elizabeth May subsequently collapsed that hypothesis in LNC next door. So while Mathyssen now holds the advantage, as long as the NDP flirts with below-'06 polling levels and retains a chronic ‘third party’ stigma, don't overestimate said advantage--but don't blame her, necessarily, if she loses; though that might now hinge less on a broad NDP collapse (remember that the LNC byelection was a unique situation) than on the anti-NDP forces galvanizing around a single party. Indeed, there's an exceptionally odd possibility that the only NDP seat in London proper might turn into the only CPC seat in London proper...
07 04 27 J Adams
Can't say Katz brings a whole lot to the table. He's a hardworker and understands the political game but he's new to London and the association doesn't have a lot of funds. Gotta stick with Irene to repeat despite sagging NDP fortunes.
07 04 16 JP
The NDP is virtually assured of winning this seat. The Liberals have a lot of wannabes, but most of them are yesterday's news. Having a recognizable name like Corrigan or White or Chaabar will hurt their chances more than help.
07 04 16 Peter L Ferguson
Irene Mathyssen is a strong incumbent facing rookie candidates from the other parties. She is a well known and well liked MP throughout all of the City of London. I predict Irene will win by bigger margin than in the previous election.
07 04 15 S. Lewis
The competition?
The Conservative candidate has only been a Londoner for a few months and given the recent history of 3rd place finishes here, isn't likely to even match Mailer's vote total.
The Liberals have a big field of candidates, but keep in mind three are recently failed municipal candidates, if you cannot win a Ward, you aren't likely going to win a whole riding. The other candidates are political rookies, unlikely to convince voters that the Liberals deserve their vote. Liberals in London are should probably be more concerned with holding the seats they have. MP Sue Barnes was in trouble last time, and the Conservatives have an even strong chance of defeating her this time. MP Glen Pearson is new, and without the Elizabeth May and Diane Haskett factors, votes are likely to shift back to both the Conservatives and NDP.
07 04 07 Elmer Smith
While the Libs haven't picked a federal candidate, I can see this election being of benefit to them. While many in the riding tout Mathyseen's likeability and persistence, there are many in the riding who also dislike her for her consistent search for attention with the national media. As well, with many automotive job worries, and many of the auto plants in the riding being affected through reduced shifts, I can see Mathyseen going to defeat.
However, it depends on who the Libs put on the block. Mailer, in the last election, was a lame duck candidate who seemed to only follow Harper talking points and seemed to lack the common touch with voters (coming off as a creepy man). Pearson, while a good stand-up candidate, is now in LNC, which leaves L-F looking for a candidate.
THe logic was that both the CPC and Libs would look to women to get the job done of taking down Irene. Yet, the CPC chose Jordan Katz, who ran last election in Windsor, and seems to have little links to London.
This one's too close to call.

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