Prediction Changed
3:34 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Aitken, Leonard
Fletcher, Duncan
New Democratic
Hawkins, Nadine
McCallum, John
Small, Allen

Hon. John McCallum

2006 Result:
John McCallum **
Joe Li
Janice Hagan
Wesley Weese
Fayaz Choudhary
Partap Dua

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 01 CM
Just to go again the grain here, I don't think McCallum necessarily has it locked up this time. Driving the riding every day, I'm seeing waaaaay more blue lawn signs than the last time we did this. Frankly, some streets were a sea of, I'm guessing Fletcher signs outnumber McCallum two or even three to one, according to my (admittedly old and tired) eyes.
08 09 09 SeanL
Duncan fletcher will get smoked. McCallum's connection to the communities and cultures of Markham is so strong I fully expect him win again
08 09 04 binriso
This was the strongest Liberal Ontario riding in 04 and one of the top ones in 06 and 00. No way is it going anywhere but red
08 05 21 R.O.
Well some of you seem to think John Mccallum does not even need to leave the campaign office to win this one. I just do not buy into that as this is a 905 riding and there always very competitive and the local riding associations run very aggressive campaigns. Stephen Harper even visited this riding a couple of months ago when he attended a Chinese association event. I think in the next election some of these 905 ridings are going to be much more competitive than the liberals want to admit. The reality is the liberal party is not doing as good as when John Mccallum first one this seat back in 2000 and there main opponents here the conservatives are doing much better than in previous years.
08 03 29 Stevo
Like Vaughan, where socially-conservative Italian-Canadians are in love with the Liberal brand and will vote for it en masse every time, in Markham the socially-conservative Liberal love-in consists of recent Asian immigrants who see the Liberals as the party that allowed them to come to Canada in the 90s. Jim Jones' victory here in 1997 was a fluke, helped by an odd, embarrassing Liberal candidate at the time.
08 03 26 T.V.
R.O.'s dreaming if he thinks the Tories have even the slightest chance here in one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. McCallum is a critic now, but he's the finance critic and that certainly bodes well for things to come. If anything, the Tory vote was inflated a bit last time because of a Chinese candidate. I wouldn't be surprised if McCallum picked up an even bigger majority.
08 02 15 R.O.
Some observations here, first off previous conservative candidate Joe Li was well a controversial one and seemed to have a hard time here. Believe he got into trouble over some comments he made and it didnít do him much good. The conservatives now have a new candidate here in Duncan Flethcer, who is new to politics and hasnít ran here before. Second John Mccallum was once a high profile cabinet minister now he is reduced to an opposition critic which isnít as high profile. And when he defeated Jim Jones back in 2000 the liberals had really targeted this riding and did everything possible to make sure he won and in next 2 elections his profile as a cabinet minister basically guaranteed his re-election . Well Iím not saying he wonít hold on to this seat but it will be a much different race than the last election.
08 02 02 seasaw
Don't be predicting Liberal here just because of the margin of victory in past elections. Remember, this is the very same riding that Harris Tories won with 70-75 % of the popular vote, then they lost it in the following two general and one by election. Large Asian population doesn't guarantee a Liberal win. This is also the only riding that elected a PC in '97 in all of Ontario. Chretien and Martin were strong leaders, so far, Dion hasn't showed any sign of being a Chretien or even Martin. Having said that John McCallum's been a very high profile and strong MP, he could even be one of the very few 905 Liberals still standing. His previous leadership in private business, and his senior cabinet portfolios, makes him a good candidate to replace Dion.
07 10 28 binriso
Well McAllum mopped the floor with that PC/CA turncoat Jim Jones(who really only won because of dissatisfaction with Jag Bhaduria) and he mopped the floor with relatively strong Joe Li twice, tripling him in 2004 and well more than doubling him in 2006. The recent provincial result was even a 32% Liberal victory. Please people, dont even make a CPC prediction and embarrass yourselves....
07 04 19 A.S.
This being boomburbia, Harper's probably got a long-term game plan (budgetary, etc) to swing it his way; this being majority-Asian, the most he could hope for this time is a larger-than-usual swing. Interesting to consider that '06's six highest Liberal shares in Ontario all straddle the Steeles divide btw/416 and 905--and Markham-Unionville had Ontario's highest share, period, in '04...
07 03 29 St. Paul's Progressive
Markham used to be competitive for the Conservatives when it was less diverse - and in the 90s they even elected a PC MP. But now that it is very Asian it is now a Liberal stronghold. John McCallum has won by huge margins every time and while some were expecting the recent provincial byelection to be close John Tory's Tories were also soundly defeated.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
No matter what happens to the Tories in the 905 belt, John McCallum's margin of victory was simply too much to overcome, so I expect he should win without too much trouble. With the exception of Mississauga South, pretty much all the ridings that border Toronto are safe for the Liberals. It is more the ones further out that might be in trouble.

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