Prediction Changed
12:18 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bunag, Ralph
Casanova, Otto
Crombie, Bonnie
Khan, Wajid
New Democratic
Pinto, Keith
Spanovic, Viktor

Wajid Khan

2006 Result:
Wajid Khan **
Raminder Gill
James Caron
Otto Casanova
Peter Creighton

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 03 R.O.
Not really sure about calling this one a liberal gain as liberal numbers in Ontario are way down from the last election and conservative numbers up. in the last election the liberal margin of victory was only 5000 votes which in some ridings would be a lot but in a swing riding in peel that is not very much at all. Wajid Khan also has the incumbent advantage as he has been mp since 2004 and is likely to convert some of his former liberal supporters. But I do admit Bonnie Crombie is a tough liberal candidate and liberals sure to focus a lot of resources here. but with there numbers down its going to be a tough riding to take back this election is my feel of the race in the 905 area of ontario.
08 10 02 The Mongoose
Respectfully disagree with the prediction. The previous commenter has it right: Liberal numbers in Ontario are not high enough to support the theory that this incumbent will be ousted, despite his controversial moves.
Unless Liberal support in Ontario moves ahead of the Conservatives by a decent margin, this riding will stay blue.
08 10 01 JNE
Liberal? That's a stretch to call this early on. Nearly all political pundits that have commented on this riding believe it will be a Khan hold. He is winning the sign war and the Conservatives are still dominating the Liberals in the national(and increasingly local) polls. I will be surprised if Crombie bucks the national trend and pulls off the upset.
08 09 25 Shotgun Willie
Even though there are a number of people disputing the Liberal call for Mississauga Streetsville, I believe it is the correct one. There is no question Wajid Khan does carry some unattractive baggage but I don't see that as the key issue. Voters in Mississauga spend their days either stuck in gridlock traffic or waiting for GO-Trains that never seem to run on time. Other than providing GO service from Peterborough, the current government has not made any investments that will help deal with the major transportaton challenges Mississauga faces. The Conservatives would have focussed more on these types of issues had a breakthrough in Mississauga/Brampton been in the cards but their inaction tells me they don't see the voters moving their way here. On the other side of the coin, the Liberals have made commitments to spending money on improving the GO system as they clearly see this as a key to holding on in this region. That is why I see the Liberals taking back Mississauga-Streetsville.
08 09 25 JS
Crombie has big signs up and that distorts the real picture of how many each campaign has on each lawn. In my area (which has been red in past elections) there are blue signs 2:1.
In the last 6 months, I have received calls from the Conservatives asking for my support. My house has had 2 mailings in the last month and has been canvassed by a neighbourhood captain.
I haven't seen Bonnie, or any mailings, or any canvassers from the Liberals.
I work in Streetsville, and from the last election - Streetsville was fairly split between the Conservatives and the Liberals. I listen to people everyday and I have yet to find anyone that is promoting the Liberals but everyday I hear at least 2 or 3 people saying that they will support Khan because they want Harper over Dion.
08 09 23 Steve From Texas
All I can say is that Khan currently occupies Nina Tangri's former office space and we all know her win/loss record, what is it 0-9?
08 09 23 Local
Clearly Mr. Torontoian over here does not understand Mississauga politics. Khan is hated locally in the riding. I have met the man on several occasions and lets just he was always less than amicable. This is a very historical Liberal riding with lots of immigrants and affluent suburbanites and I can't see Liberals who voted for the Liberal party when Khan was their candidate in Mississauga-Streetsville voting for him now as a conservative, he simply just does not have the star power to be a successful floor crosser. His up and coming star opponent, Bonnie Crombie, is also running no amateur campaign. She is crushing Khan in the sign count and while this doesn't always translate into votes it is a clear indication that her campaign is a force to be reckoned with. The LIberals are also placing heavy importance on winning back this riding. Dion has been here three times since the beginning of the election and is a strong supporter of Crombie.
My prediction - all the pundits are going to say this is a down to the wire race, however in the end I think the Grits take it by a comfortable buffer, making Crombie an ever more rising star on the national stage.
08 09 22 Torontonian537
This riding is too close to call right now. The relatively small margin of victory, Khan switching to CPC, and the CPC's strong national poll numbers make this one of the most interesting seats in the country. Maybe the picture will become more clear after a couple more weeks, but it was definitely too early to call the race for the Liberals.
Paul, if many Liberals stayed home to protest Paul Martin in 2006, do you really think they'll come back to support Dion? That scenario seems far-fetched.
08 09 19
Fact-2006 election results indicate a greater Liberal outpour than 2004 (roughly 24000 to 23000). The statistics do not back up the claim that Liberals remained home on E-day in 2006, because of Martin’s weak leadership. However, Conservative outpour rose from 14000 to 18000, suggesting that Conservative support is on the rise. This begs the question: Can Wajid continue the trend and make statistical gains for the Conservatives....If he can, this riding will be decided on a coin flip.
08 09 19 Adrena Lynn
Here's two reasons why Khan won't get elected this time as a Tory.
1. Khan makes the argument that he's not the first to cross the floor, so why is there so much heat on him? After all look at Belinda and Scott Brison. Well, those two left the Conservatives because they had fundamental ideological differences with their old party, and felt joining the Liberals fit more of what they believe in politics.
Khan simply left because of a gravitation towards power; in late 2005 he went around canvassing in full support of the universal child care program from the Grits. Now he's all for the measly $1200 a year baby bonus that gives out no child care spaces at all. If that doesn't tell you how much of a sleazy opportunist he is, I don't know what will.
2. Khan claims that previous Liberal 'special advisers' didn't have to submit public reports. The Conservatives were elected in 2006 on a promise of doing things differently. Khan had the chance to show, as a Conservative, he was different from the Liberals. Instead he chose to adopt the same old ways of the shadiness of Ottawa politics. But hey, he wasn't elected as a Conservative in the first place. Maybe that argument will go over well with constituents.
I can't wait until the 14th when this guy goes back to selling cars.
08 12 15 Always Right
It is unlikely that the Tories are going to lose this one - Khan has visibility and the advantage of incumbency. He has worked hard in the riding as a Conservative and even if we accept the notion that people here vote primarily on the basis of party identification, there are only a few thousand votes to pick up here for the Tories. This is one of the predictions that will be proven to be wrong on e-night if you don't change this soon.
08 09 17 Jack Forget
The Conservatives got 18000 votes with a TERRIBLE candidate in the mean to tell me that this riding will be a landslide for Crombie when Kahn pretty much only has to make up 4000 votes?
Even if he gets a 1/3rd of the vote difference...that brings us to 22000 to 20000...this riding will be very close...Crombie by no means has this riding under wraps...
Yes this is a Liberal stronghold, but 18000 votes for Gill in the last election shows that this riding could vote for Kahn...
08 09 16 Paul
Lawn signs do not merit enough information to predict how this riding will go, but let's look at the trends. In the 2004 & 2006 election, ‘Liberal’ candidate Waljid Khan 50% & 46% of the votes respectively. I doubt these numbers are on the strength of his name but the deep Liberal support. This goes for the entire GTA region; from Burlington to Oshawa, Conservatives do not have any seats. In the last election, Mississauga-Streetsville Liberals who stayed home, weary of Paul Martin's leadership, will be galvanized this time to unseat Khan. Crombie wins in a landslide.
08 09 13 Arthur Smith
Fact-the margin of victory in the 2006 election was roughly 6 thousand votes-(Liberals 24000, Conservatives 18000). With Wajid crossing the floor from the Liberals to the Conservatives, and assuming the Conservative voter base remains unchanged, ask yourself this question:
‘Can Wajid convert 4 thousand Liberals into Conservatives?’
If he can-the seat will be taken by the Conservatives. Good luck Bonnie, you’ve got a tough road ahead!
08 09 13 T.V.
This is the most guaranteed Liberal pickup in the country. There is no question that Crombie will win. In a Tory majority situation they'd have a chance of winning it with a different candidate, but with floor-crossing Wajid Khan this would be the last Mississauga seat to go blue.
08 09 12 E. L. Smerl
Crombie should take it in a walk. Khan is certainly not a national figure like Garth Turner or David Emerson. Floor-crossers have a tough time even if they are national figures without scandal, but Khan has neither edge.
A stronger Green party will probably be offset by a weaker NDP to some degree so it's harder for Liberals to win, but the disappearance of the Progressive Canadian (PC) party puts most of those 700+ votes in Liberal column.
08 09 11 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
I have to say that until Khan crossed the floor, Mississauga has not received the due attention that it should have gotten during federal election campaigns. Since this campaign began last Sunday, the Prime Minister has been here, and Dion has been here twice. This may lean Liberal at the end but right now in this riding is where all the action is.
08 09 11 Adrena Lynn
I'm not saying that signs means more Liberals. There was more I wanted to put down but it got edited out. I'm just saying at this point, this riding still tilts Liberal. I think Crombie, if the polls in Ontario come down to a virtual tie on E-day, may win it by 2000-3000 votes.
08 09 10 JS
IF you actually have a look around, Khan has many lawn signs, and I would guess to say even more than the Liberals. The Liberals are beating him with the big signs on street corners 4 to 1.
This will be an interesting race but if the CPC is 10 points ahead in Ontario - then Khan will be re-elected, this time as a Conservative
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
Hate to tell all here but if signs are your basis for winning an election than Paul Martin is still PM. Something a little more scientific than saying that the Libs have more signs. THEY SHOULD HAVE MORE SIGNS! They take this ‘defection’ / ‘expulsion’ personally. I have no opinion on who wins but I don't believe for a moment that signs on boulevards mean much in DAY 2 of a campaign. What about signs on front lawns in week 3????
08 09 08 Adrena Lynn
Yeah, I drove down Creditview Road yesterday and it was plastered with Bonnie Crombie signs, large and small. There was like two Wajid Khan Conservative signs.
08 09 07 Rob M
I just drove down 10th line and a couple of other streets in the riding and I just the first day the Mrs. Crombie and her big posters are winning the sign war just like I think she will on the 14th.
08 05 02 Adrena Lynn
First, anyone noticed since Khan's little incident with Elections Canada, all his public appearances in the riding have been absent of cabinet members? Ministers used to fawn over at appearing with one of their MPs who was actually from one of the immigrant groups that the Tories have been courting. Looks like Khan's not as special as he used to be; Harper did not reinstate him as his special mideast advisor, and there's been no mention of Khan ever being in that post again.
Second, I've noticed Khan making a lot of Members' Statements in the House about immigration policy. Seems he's trying to make himself look good, but unfortunately he keeps using the words 'head tax'. I don't think this idea of pandering to the Chinese vote will help him get elected.
08 04 25 I'm Always Right
It's looking more and more like the Liberals will bring down the Harper government on the immigration issue. I don't think the Liberals can afford not to force an election on this because their base is first generation Canadians in ridings like Miss-Streetsville. If that is the issue that forces an election, it will be an easy victory for the Liberals in this riding as Khan will be wiped out by angry constituents concerned about anything that would make coming to Canada tougher to do. This will be an easy win for the Liberals.
08 04 12 Hannah Montana
This is a case of the Tories not being happy that they have to work for Wajid Khan and the Grits angry about Khan jumping parties and all wound up to take this district back. Key Tories in this district are going to sit this election out as they can't work for Khan. Mississauga-Streetsville voted heavily for the Grits last time and will do the same again, thanks to the Tories and their planned changes to Canada's immigration laws. Easy Grit victory in this district.
08 03 22 Curley, Larry and Moe
There are so many reasons by Mississauga-Streetsville will return to the Liberals. We'll pick a couple. First off Wajid Khan is seen as a laughing stock in this community. Key Conservatives we talk to here have to grit their teeth to deal with the guy. Secondly, Mississauga is in our opinion the strongest Liberal area of support in Ontario and here's why. In Toronto, the Liberals have to deal with the NDP but in this area the social democrats are a fringe party fighting in out with the Green Party in the single digits. Mississauga-Brampton will elect nothing but Liberals and Wajid Khan gets what's coming to him.
08 03 21 R.O.
This will be an interesting race whenever the next election comes it will be a face off between former liberal mp turned conservative Wajid Khan and Bonnie Crombie new liberal candidate. The riding leans liberal but Wajid Khan has been the mp since 2004 so he is fairly well known. But I image the liberals will put a lot of effort into this riding in an attempt to take it back and same for the conservatives as they try to hold it. Buts its too early to say what will happen here and its hard to get a good feel as to how the switch of parties and elections Canada incident have gone over with the ridings large immigrant population.
08 03 10 Peg Leg Pete
Conservatives like seesaw dream of breaking through in Peel Region but that's all it is, a dream. Seesaw claims that first generation immigrants don't support the Liberals. Hello! Can you give me a riding anywhere in Canada with a large immigrant population that is currently held by the Conservatives? Mississauga-Streetsville will return to the Liberal fold in the next election as the GTA is once again no mans land for the Conservatives. I predict the Liberals win by 6000 votes.
08 02 07
Khan was not ‘freed of charges’. He pleaded guilty to exceeding his 2004 election campaign spending limit by more than $30,000, and was fined by Elections Canada.
08 02 06
I believe Khan was freed of charges. He will be re-elected; this riding was on the verge of going Conservative in 2006. As long as Dion is at the helm of the Liberal Party with no substantial policy or platform, Khan will re-take this seat as a Conservative.
08 01 28 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
Ever since Khan got charged by Elections Canada, he's been virtually invisible. An MP asked me a week ago if I'd seen him, ironic because he's the one that works with him every day! The Liberal vote is there, and Bonnie Crombie has been working extremely hard to mobilize and get ready for the next election. She will be elected as the new MP.
08 12 31 seasaw
This is a typical 905 area riding. Is it a Liberal riding, like everyone seems to suggest? No, not by a long shot! Lots of immigrants, mean lots of Liberal votes, right ? Wrong, it's almost 2008 and not 1968, the Liberals no longer have a lock on immigrant votes. Let's look at the voting patterns of the typical 905 riding. In every election, whether federal or provincial, unless there's a strong appetite for change ( '84f, '03p ), which isn't present now, or a great deal of discontent, which doesn't seem to be here now, ridings like this tend to vote for the party with the stronger, more experienced leader ( federally Mulrony over Turner, Chretien over Anybody, Martin over Harper ), and provincially ( Peterson over Grossman/Rae, Harris over McLeod/McGuinty, McGuinty over Tory ), the leadership experience edge, at the present time seem to belong to Harper. It is quite likely that Harper could sweep 905, the way Harris did, in which case the Libs could have Jesus Christ as their candidate, and they still won't win. But, it is too early to predict, we don't even know if we're going to have an election in '08 or '09. A lot can happen between now and then.
07 11 28 Daniel
Khan faced an uphill battle here, even before these latest allegations. Now I feel pretty certain that, barring some sort of Conservative sweep of Missisauga, Khan is done for. Bonnie Crombie is a more amicable figure than Mr. Khan, and I doubt that Khan will pull many personal votes with him to the Conservatives - indeed, he may end up pushing softer Conservative votes to the Liberals.
07 11 27 Cantelope
Also consider the possibility that Wajid Khan may not be allowed to stand as the Tory candidate if the charges stick. Remember in 2006 when two B.C candidates from the Tories and Grits were caught up in legal problems and were immediately dismissed as their respective parties' candidates in the middle of the campaign. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened to Khan as well, before the election.
07 11 25 Streetsville Voter
Enough said!
07 11 24 binriso
Ok so now that Khan is embroiled in one of those campaign overspending fiascos like what happened to Blair Wilson, I think it is safe to say that if he runs again here he will lose. Even if he is exonerated or they get another candidate, it still looks bad from an image perspective and the CPC will lose here unless they are way ahead of the Liberals, which is unlikely in Ontario. Heck Mulroney only beat Turner by 17 points in Ontario in the disaster of 1984, which is the best the PC's/CPC has ever done in Ontario in recent elections. With the ever changing demographics since then favouring the Liberals (Specifically Immigration and growth in the 416/905, which makes the entire 416 and a large part of the 905 a CPC wasteland) I think the best that Harper can hope for in the next election is a marginally higher vote than the Liberals in Ontario and ~50 seats.
07 11 24 PY
I will resist the urge to scream ‘Khan!’ at the top of my lungs and say that his political career is dead thanks to charges related to election overspending. Now the Tories will have to scramble to find another candidate in light of the ones they've already tossed aside. That said, Bonnie Crombie wins in a cakewalk.
07 11 11 binriso
I think im going to go against the majority opinion and give it to Wajid Khan. Obviously the fact that he switched parties should earn him extra attention not to mention the CPC did really well here last time. I think Harper and the party will put in just enough extra effort to keep this seat by a close margin. Not to mention polls now put the CPC with a double-digit lead federally and ahead in Ontario by a few points.
07 06 27 Alex
Mr Khan can only win this election if the Tories sweep Ontario or if the Bonnie Crombie Liberal Campaign lacks the organizational prowess to mount an effective campaign. The latter I don?t believe will happen because Bonnie?s campaign has already shown its capability in the Liberal Nomination meeting. Bonnie ran against 6 other candidates and still won with a 70% landslide. Contrary to what a previous writer on this website said Bonnie?s nomination was not only gained by ?hired help? from downtown. Bonnie herself is a terrific fundraiser and organizer and used much more local people than downtown people.
Mr Khan won only because Mississauga-Streetsville is a Liberal riding and the party he used to represent was in the favour of the majority of the constituents. It is na?ve of him to think people actually voted for him rather than the Liberal party. My prediction is that Bonnie landslides the riding because of the political machine she has set up and because the constituents of Mississauga-Streetsville and sick and tired of Wajid Khan?s selfish politics.
07 06 22 Paul
Even going back to this riding's predecessor (Brampton West-Mississauga) it has been a safe Liberal riding since 1993. In 2004, Khan took this riding with over 50% of the votes and doubtfully on the strength of this name but a strong Liberal contingency in the riding. His decision to cross the floor and turn his back on these supporters will not work in his favour. Harper picked the 905 Liberal to coddle over to the Conservatives.
07 06 17 X Marks The Spot
Wajid Khan made the egotistical fatal error of somehow (in his fantasy world) of thinking that the majority of people voted for HIM and not for the Liberal party in 2006. Thinking that he has the ‘swing power’ of a Belinda Stronach is foolhardy. Wajid Khan was elected twice for one reason and one reason only - he represented the party of choice in Mississauga Streetsville. Khan's ego will be rightly deflated during the next election, when he realizes that it is not HE who won in Mississauga Streetsville, but the Liberal Party. This is a safe Liberal riding, and Khan's political career is currently on life support.
07 04 28 Streetsville Voter
If Stephen Harper puts considerable resources into this riding, Khan would win by a small margin. If not, it looks like Bonnie Crombie could become the next MP by default.
07 04 25 Full Name
I would say after evaluating Mr. Khan's performance as a Conservative, he has done modestly well. I still don't agree with the deceptive nature of the floor crossing he did, but he has managed to produce some marginal results. He finally got the funding for the BRT for Mississauga after the Liberals basically ignored that issue when they were in government, and I've seen photos of him in Afghanistan, so there is some dialog going on over there and I hope he's learning something important to bring back to the PM. It's really going to be down the wire, but I think Wajid could pull off an upset by the slimmest of margins (say by 10 votes maybe?)
07 04 23 A C Branston
For the most part Wajid Khan's performance has been uninspiring. He won in 2004 and 2006 largely because he was a Liberal and not because he was Wajid Khan. Although, it is arguable that more 905 voters have warmed to the Conservatives since January 2006, Khan does not really embody Harper Conservative principles. In fact, it's hard to detect any principles in his motivation to switch other than a deep-seated desire to travel. If he does win, and I suspect he won't, it will be just barely.
07 04 18 Steve L.
Wajid Khan does have some baggage to him besides the floor crossing (i.e. his ‘report’...). crossed the floor, chip away a few hundred votes maybe. his un-forthcoming report, chip away a few hundred more votes maybe. and then he's not really safe.
07 04 05 Nick J Boragina
Unlike the recent commentators, I'm not going to take a swipe at the site owner because he happens to be a party member. I am a party member myself, a card carrying conservative, yet despite that I'm not sure if Khan can win here. This is going to be close however, we won’t know until later on just how well things are going here. Khan will surly take some votes along with him. If he can take 2,500 votes from the Liberals to the Conservatives he can win. Even if the other 20,000 liberals are ‘angry’, it won’t matter. Look at what happened to Belinda Stronach. Conservatives were furious with her, and the Tories nearly doubled their seat count in the province, yet she still held on to her riding as a Liberal. Crossing the floor works when your riding is close. That being said, the 905 area is in the GTA, and the tories have had trouble here. Harper might win votes with his pro-family stance, but Mississauga is borderline urban-suburban, so even that might not work.
07 04 03 A.S.
First, for the sake of open democracy (hey, it's a game), I'm glad to see that ?this site's rather partisan owner? saw fit to include rather than delete or censor that post by ?Streetsville voter?. Second, the split/crippled riding association issue didn't, in the end, prevent Michael Ignatieff's Etobicoke-Lakeshore victory--fortunately or unfortunately, depending on where one stands (and for transparency's sake, ?this site's rather partisan owner? was involved in that one, too). And third, for all the party-switch hype, if one remembers past EPP goarounds (including all the plumping for Nina Tangri in '04), this would seem the perfect 905 Liberal seat where voters chose the party more than the person per se--Wajid Khan was always more a placeholder than a caucus star, and always carried that, er, slimy-car-salesman-with-a-bad-rug thing about him. If he hadn't run for the Liberals, he could just as well have been pursued by and run (without a hope in blazes) for Conservative/Reform/Alliance forces--*back then*. Still, ?Streetsville voter? has a point. By default, this Liberal nonentity with no profile has become a Conservative non-nonentity with profile; and the 11-point 2006 margin is ?within reach?--BTW as proof of how ugly-racialized politics can be, there was a freakish '06 jump in the NDP vote, likely due to a non-Asian running against two South Asian frontrunners. It all depends on whether the Liberal label still carries autopilot clout in the multihued urban 905, esp. now that it isn't the Liberals in federal power--but keep in mind re that '06 NDP result: the present Liberal nominee *isn't* Asian. Somehow, unless we're facing an '84-scale Liberal catastrophe, I can see Wajid Khan as less likely to survive than Garth Turner (hey, it's Garth Turner, after all)...
07 04 03 Streetsville voter
The nomination win is in no way a sign of Crombie's organizational strength. Her so call ‘machinary’ was headed by downtown hired-gun Liberal organizers (and none other than this site's rather partisan owner) Milton Chan and Alexis Levine and operated by their downtown buddies. Chan also ran Bob Rae's nomination day in the same week and is managing a pile of other nomination campaigns. Levine is already named campaign manager for Michael Ignatieff. Crombie is just one of their mini-project and none of these folks are going to be there for Crombie during the general election. With half the riding association left with Khan, Crombie will not have the organization to mount a serious campaign.
07 04 01 EP
The hotly contested Liberal nomination is a sure sign that they are organized enough to take this back from Wajid Khan. Seven candidates, four of them serious, contested the nomination and the eventual winner, Bonnie Crombie, took the nomination with 70% on first ballot. She may not be well known but the nomination campaign clearly showed that she has the mechinary to deliver the votes.
Khan, being a turncoat, is unlikely to have the wholehearted support of local conservatives. He will also continue to be grilled for the taxpayer-tabbed ‘special convoy report’ that no one can confirm its existence. Most importantly, Conservatives are going to be focusing on swing ridings like Missisauga South or Brampton West.
07 03 27 Brian
Wajid Khan wasn't the most popular individual at the best of times, but he was elected because of his party. People's opinions certainly aren't going to improve based on his various antics over the past year. This riding will go Liberal, and it'll be pretty embarrassing for the Tories when it does.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Khan's floor crossing didn't have the controversy that Emerson's did and unlike in Vancouver Kingsway, most people were probably okay with it. With incumbency, the CPC targeting Mississauga, a strong conservative element to the riding and Liberal numbers being stagnant, we give the nod to the CPC here. Should Liberal fortunes improve (and they certainly may since an election is some time off), this may be recaptured by the Grits.
07 03 22 sdfj
THis is going to be interesting. Streetsville has been a staunch liberal riding, I dont think Khan can win this one as a conservative. Even if he were to win it would be by the smallest of all margins, but if he loses then by the biggest. It will be the one of the most interesting riding on election night. I call this for the Liberals!
07 03 21 M. Lunn
Wajid Khan is a nobody here and won't win because of his personal popularity. He will only win if Harper is able to get the 905 belt onside, which is possible, but not likely.

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