Prediction Changed
11:16 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Nepean-Carleton
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
New Democratic
Brown, Phil
Green
Gadzala, Lori
Liberal
Mahfouz, Ed
Conservative
Poilievre, Pierre

Incumbent:
Pierre Poilievre

2006 Result:
Pierre Poilievre **
39512
Michael Gaffney
20111
Laurel Gibbons
8274
Lori Gadzala
3976

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 09 28 Bob
99.241.76.197
Pierre will win by Alberta-like numbers. He is very visible and works very hard. While his style grates on many, he is popular with the many many more who are rural, elderly and well-off. Moreover, the Liberals have fielded a very weak candidate this time around. This one was over before it started.
08 09 23 Mueller
216.106.111.35
Ed Mahfouz is the weakest candidate I've seen in a long time. This is a guy who was a provincial Liberal, ran for two Conservative nominations and then decided to become a Liberal again! He's spent most of the two debates so far trying to offer an explanation for this, and hasn't launched a single attack against easy target Poilievre.
08 09 22 R P
99.254.2.218
Does Ed Mahfouz know where the riding is outside of Barrhaven? No Liberal signs on public or private land once you leave the urban area of this riding. Pierre will be returned with little trouble. No more comments needed, NC will go Conservative Blue again.
08 09 22 The Rabid Beaver
198.103.172.9
likely to go to cons. since other parties are revolving doors for low-profile candidates. I believe only Gadzala is back from the last election.
However, the plethora of lawn signs is not necessarily a sign of Cons. support. EMC news reported that Cons. campaign staffers have been randomly putting signs on lawns at night and leaving a letter to the homeowner that they will remove it if asked. I have seen several lawn signs mysteriously appear and then disappear on lawns in my immediate neighbourhood.
08 09 12 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
76.68.238.247
I stayed a friend's place here last night and if Poiliver is in any trouble it certainly doesn't show it in the lawn signs. His signs are everywhere! I think I saw 1 Liberal sign and 3 NDP signs, all on public property. Poiliver's signs were very well represented on private property. He may loose some support from the silent voters for a plethora of reasons but don't think he's going to lose his seat.
08 09 10 Jesse
99.224.168.132
I believe that Pierre Poilievre is going to romp to another win. His opponent, literally, will not talk about issues at the door. He comes across as a snake-oil salesman since its clear hes a two-time conservative nomination loser it's obvious that arrogance and a thirst for attention are the only reasons he's become a liberal.
And interestingly, rumors are flying all over that almost the entire Nepean-Carleton Liberal Riding Board are either not helping Ed Mahfouz or are resigning. Apparently, there was a hostile take-over at the nomination meeting and now Ed's people have wrestled control of the money the NCLA raised.
I literally talked to one of the board members yesterday who only had four letter words to describe Ed. Crazy!
08 09 03 binriso
156.34.218.245
I actually saw the guy on CTV the other day, thatís the first time Iíve ever seen Pierre Pollievre. Cant say im too impressed, he seems to not have a mind of his own and is just spewing the party line, but since the vast majority of people vote for the party and not the candidate the CPC should win by at least 10 000 votes, but it will be closer than last time anyways.
08 09 02 Porter
99.224.138.33
By all estimates this has become a Conservative stronghold. However, I moved to the riding a few months ago and was surprised to find the neighbourhood gets spammed with 1-2 mailouts a week from Pierre's MP office (not generic Conservative Party info, they all feature Pierre). In addition, he also has his own spots running on local radio. I've lived in close ridings during an election that didn't get so much incumbent campaigning!
These are not the actions of one who feels safe, so I have to wonder if he has some internal polling that looks really bad. Otherwise why is he spending so much money to constantly annoy his constituents? He may not be personally popular but this is a very blue riding.
Fully expect it to go Con, but now perhaps by a greatly reduced margin.
08 08 14 Sean F.
64.26.143.249
Despite all the problems Pierre Pollievre is having, he will win this riding come election time. The Liberal Nominee, Ed Mahfouz, ran for the CONSERVATIVE nomination in Ottawa West-Nepean in 2005, ultimately losing to John Baird. Being a bitter loser, he took all his supporters over to the Liberals, and look at him now. This party switch will enable Pollievre to go on the offensive against Mahfouz on his reliability and loyalties, rather than having to defend his record all the time.
Pollievre will not win as big as in 2006, but he will comfortably come in on top in Nepean-Carleton.
08 08 12 R.O.
209.91.149.155
Well I do not disagree that this mp did get himself into some trouble a few weeks back but overall he has been an effective mp and fairly high profile member of conservative government. And the riding leans conservative federally and provincially. Was even a provincial by-election here a couple of years ago and liberals ran a former Ottawa police chief Brian Ford and could not win the riding when it was vacant after John Baird left to run federally. The liberals have also nominated a new rookie candidate Ed Mahfouz to run here so Iím not convinced Pierre Poilievre is that much trouble here
08 06 13 Kevin
206.191.56.76
I think there is a decent shot this time at the riding going Liberal. With Poilievre raising his finger to the speaker caught on tape, and his horrible comments about Aboriginals, I think it may be the end of the conservatives here...
08 02 24 Bob
99.241.76.197
Pierre cannot be beaten. He will win by a little less than last time, but without a challenge. Pierre is very visible and works hard to take credit for successes (doubling Limebank Road) and adept at blaming others for failures (cancelling light rail and brige to Barhaven). Pierre will become for Conservatives in Ottawa what Mauril Belanger has become for Ottawa Liberals, not even an electoral tsunami would dislodge then from their fiefdoms.
07 07 30 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Po-liver lives. If this seat were in the GTA, it might still be Liberal or only marginally Tory; but given the ?progressive-CPC? (as opposed to Progressive Conservative) way this stretch of suburban Ottawa has electorally evolved over the past decade, you might as well call the seat Nepean-Leduc or Nepean-Spruce Grove at this point...
07 04 03 Brian Appel
64.230.120.149
This is my mom's riding and I spend some time here when I'm visiting her. It's solidly right-wing, with a bit of rural, a bit of wealth and a bit of Catholics. The MP?ll get re-elected easily.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Pierre Poilievre is a complete showboat and a pain in the neck, but this is one of the safest conservative ridings in the province. This has consistently election after election been amongst their five best showings at both the provincial and federal level. A complete meltdown would be needed for this to go Liberal. Never mind their last Liberal MP David Pratt was on the right of the party.



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