Prediction Changed
11:15 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Niagara Falls
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Gillespie, Eric
Morocco, Joyce
Nicholson, Rob
Willick, Shawn

Hon. Rob Nicholson

2006 Result:
Rob Nicholson **
Gary Burroughs
Wayne Gates
Kay Green

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 Todd Bosak
A few days ago I would have said Con hold for sure. My logic is that in the many years that I lived in Niagara, this riding had the uncanny ability (with one exception that I can think of) both Federally and Provincially to vote on the winning side. Now that the notion of who is winning is much less clear, so is my prediction with this riding. I would think that a conservative incumbantcy might tip the balance in a tight national race, but also tend to think that a weaker than usual NDP candidate would bode well for liberal fortunes. We will see Tuesday I suppose.
08 10 01 Paxe
I'd repeat the other urban Niagara ridings with, Poor-ish. White. Working-Class-but this riding might be a little more complicated.
Although there was some industry in Niagara Falls, and there can be a rust-belt feeling here too, NF might be a little different. For quite some time, statistically speaking, it was actually one of the poorest cities in Ontario, while other areas had better-paying union jobs, NF tended to have poorer paying service-industry, tourist-industry jobs and the like. Since then union jobs have gone away so there's been a bit of evening out. Not that there aren't some affluent sections of the city in some parts.
What complicates this riding even more though is that NF is not big enough to be a riding all on its own, and this riding contains the city of Fort Erie across the river from Buffalo, tiny towns dotted throughout,rural tracts in between everything, generally affluent residential areas all along the river, and the town of Niagara-on-the-Lake with its quaint tourist trap of a downtown. While I'm sure there are some working-class people in NOTL, its greatly the affluence of the upper-middle, and even beyond. There's almost no NDP presence in NOTL.
Economically many are sharply left, but in less of a blue-collar 'organized' way, more affluent areas are right-leaning. Socially it's all over the map, with fairly conservative types, and arch-libertine liberals here in Sin City.
In what ways the feelings of the people in the riding get channeled in the course of an election campaign is what's up in the air.
08 09 06 BG
With the NDP about to proclaim a Toronto lawyer as their candidate, It's doubtful they will draw the same numbers as last election. That being said those votes are highly unlikely to go to Nicholson. Should make it interesting.
08 08 28 34456
1) Well liked MP
2)Weakest challenger yet
3)No National Liberal Surge
All points to a CPC victory in the riding with an increased margin of victory for Nicholson
08 02 17 R.O.
This has been Rob Nicholsons riding for a number of years now, well off and on. With the exception of the 93-04 when Gary Pillitteri was mp. It returned to the conservatives when the liberal mp retired. Conservative mp has since then became a high profile cabinet minister in the harper conservative government. Well the riding did re-elect its provincial liberal mpp last election , but it was a much different race and liberals had an incumbent mpp which gave them an advantage that election since voter turnout was low and issues like faith based funding seemed to hurt pc’s. but federally its much different issues and liberals have had to find another new candidate to run here, which will be 3rd different one to face Rob Nicholson in as many elections. That being said it’s a cpc hold as things stand rate now.
08 02 14 John
Nicholson is a cabinet minister, and a good one at that. Throw in the advantage incumbents have and this seat will stay Conservative.
07 11 14 seasaw
Sure, this may look like a bellwether riding. Exept for '04 of course when Rob Nicholson won. Unless something drastic happens to CPC, chances are Lib and CPC numbers won't change much with slight advantage to CPC. That, along with the fact that this would be Nicholson's eighth campaign for the H of C, should put this one in the win column for CPC.
07 10 24 Former Niagara Guy
Picking this riding is rather simple, but one must wait until the election period to make the call. I grew up in Niagara and have been consistently amazed at the fact that almost always, this riding goes to the party that wins the general election both provincially and federally. Wait for the national polls at the start of the actual election, and you will have your winner right there. This same formula cannot be said for anywhere else in Niagara, but in the falls it has been quite consistent.
07 05 01 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Amazing what a month can be in politics. Early April we were talking Conservative majority government, early May and the polls say CPC 30%, Libs 31%, NDP 15%. The last election saw CPC 36%, Libs 30%, NDP 17.5%. So the question to ask now, with Liberal numbers the same as the last election, a slight drop in the NDP and a significant drop for the CPC, where does that leave ridings like this one, where the CPC incumbent was only 6% over the liberals in the last election. We say the edge is definitely for the CPC, but this riding looks like it may be coming into play and these ‘defeated-cabinet-minister fetishists’ are starting to watch this one.
07 04 07 A.S.
Re the ‘high profile cabinet position’, note that Mulroney's Attorney-General going into the 1988 election, James Kelleher, lost his Sault Ste Marie seat--of course, the idea of a Tory elected in SSM would seem bizarre today; but all things considered, Niagara Falls is one of the softer Ontario CPC seats out there now, even with Fort Erie added on. And it was less than a 2-point swing t/w Rob Nicholson in '06 over '04 (admittedly, he was now running against the Lord Mayor of NOTL). Too urban; too industrial; too 20%+ NDP; Judy La Marsh was here. ‘Softness’, though, is relative under the present circumstance. If Dion holds Harper to a draw and gains ground beyond Toronto, though, this should be one for defeated-cabinet-minister fetishists to watch.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
With Rob Nicholson now holding a high profile cabinet position, I would be very surprised if he loses his seat. The Tories would have to do quite poorly nationally to lose this. Even if they lose the next election, I still think he will be re-elected. Lets remember, last time around his profile was much lower and never mind areas like Niagara on the Lake and Fort Erie go Conservative naturally anyways, Niagara Falls is the only real battleground in this riding.
07 04 01 Informed voter
Weakest Liberal candidate in recent memory vs. Federal Conservative cabinet minster... hmmm... Nicholson will be handily re-elected and the Liberals will sink to new lows in Niagara Falls.

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