Prediction Changed
11:17 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Allen, Dianna
Bridges, Craig
Canadian Action
Moulden, Andrew
Rota, Anthony
Sinicrope, Joe

Anthony Rota

2006 Result:
Anthony Rota **
Peter Chirico
Dave Fluri
Meg Purdy

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 09 Todd Bosak
A firm Liberal hold. I think that the Libs and the Cons will split roughly in North Bay, and in the Temiskaming part of the riding, it will be very red. The northern portion of the riding feels very much tacked on to the riding and there is not a great community of interest between the 2 areas. I think that if the Cons decided to choose a Temiskaming area candidate, they could be winning this thing. The conservative base in North Bay would have supported any Conservative candidate, and a huge mass of voters in Temiskaming would have supported a candidate of any stripe if they were from their community.
Instead, a Con was chosen that did not open an office in the tritowns (unlike Rota)and barely visited.
Dave Fluri was a great NDP candidate who brought in numbers that were never thought posible in North Bay. The new candidate is not expected to do as well.
The Temiskaming Speaker reported that the NDP candidate when asked by a reporter, did not know who John Vanthof was. (He was the new democrat who came painfully close to upsetting Provincial cabinet minister David Ramsey during the last provincial election). D'oh.
08 10 09 KRPS
A few notes, some of them hair splitting, as Nipissing-Timiskaming voters head off to re-elect Anthony Rota by what I expect to be an increased margin, probably 8,000 votes or more.
Tory Sinicrope will do well if he matches the vote totals of his predecessors, but I expect some slippage, especially with the recent Tory slide in the national and provincial polls.
Definitely expect slippage from the NDP, who have virtually no lawn signs in North Bay. I've never seen that before. The last NDP candidate, Dave Fluri, raised their vote substantially, but that gain will likely evaporate, leaving them with 3,000 to 4,000 core votes. The Greens should pick up some of those lost NDP votes, and may challenge them for third place.
Some talk has been made about the ‘Liberal’ base in Timiskaming improving the likelihood of a Liberal win. I think that's a bit of wishful thinking. In the redistribution, Sturgeon Falls and West Nipissing were lopped off and added to Nickel Belt. Both those areas were solid Liberal (it should be noted that it was only when the Tories nominated a popular francophone municipal politician from Sturgeon Falls that the riding last fell to the Conservatives). So adding Timiskaming and subtracting West Nipissing and Sturgeon to my mind is pretty much a wash.
As for students at Nipissing/Canadore being more Conservative than elsewhere. . . well, perhaps at the university where Dr. B teaches, but not at the college where I taught. Most of the college students come from across Northeastern Ontario and add their family leanings to their youthful perspective. Perhaps more university students come from southern or central Ontario?
Thanks all for the respectful discourse!
08 10 08 R.O.
So in the last week of the campaign and after advance polls dion visited north bay a riding everyone is saying the liberals will win anyways which makes the need for his visit with Anthony Rota seem a little odd. it makes you wonder if the race is a little closer than previously though. Although its hard to tell as polls for Ontario have been up and down with some giving conservatives lead others a much closer race. But I still expect the results here to be much closer than the last election in the end.
08 10 04 Atticman
The Liberals will hold this riding. The combined Liberal voting base of the Northern Portion of the riding and of urban North Bay (where upwards of 70% of the polling stations will likely go Liberal) will send Anthony Rota back to Ottawa.
IMO most people in North Bay don't share the socially conservative views of Conservative candidate Joe Sinicrope, and that being said, I have to disagree with the statement by the previous poster who said that areas further north such as in the Timmins-James Bay riding are more ‘socially liberal’ - I HIGHLY doubt that the blue collar miners and forestry workers there are more socially liberal than the public sector employees in North Bay - even the business people in North Bay who vote Conservative are probably more socially liberal than the typical miner in Timmins who always votes NDP.
08 09 27 NJam101
The unusual riding in Northern Ontario where Conservative support is strongest. Although Sinicrope will put up a good fight, Rota will win again as he has lots of media exposure and is well liked. Isn't he head of the Ontario Liberal caucus? The NDP candidate is not as well known as last time which can only help Rota. Dr. Bear and Prof. Ape are dead on about this riding. They are correct about the Temiskaming portion leaning Liberal and that when it got added with North Bay, it made it more difficult for the Conservatives. I have lived in Timmins most of my life and do now but I did live in North Bay for a short time. Sudbury and Timmins have many who work in mining directly and indirectly. They tend to vote mainly NDP and some Liberal and it's not just because of unionization. There is something in the mining culture and mentally that does it. Things are more socially left-wing further North as well. A higher percentage of francophones and aboriginals might influences things too. There were many in the forestry industry around Timmins and they voted mainly Liberal and some NDP. In North Bay, it seems many are public sector employees who tend to support the Liberals. Unlike most places in Northern Ontario, North Bay has a large percentage of small and medium sized business owners/entrepreneurs who favour the Conservatives. North Bay is not a one or two industry town.
08 09 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
KRPS: Agreed, our differences are of degree and not substance. One other point that we have differ on is your assessment that the Nipissing and Canadore studnts will help the Liberal cause. With the exception of the local students (who don't factor into this equation), the students at Nip/Canadore are not as Liberal friendly as we have seen in other universities (Dr. Bear is a faculty memeber at Nipissing). Many of the out of towners are from small communities (places we'd never heard of and had to look them up on a map!) and not larger, Liberal-friendly cities such as Toronto and the GTA. If they are from a small town in the south, they'd be more inclined to vote Conservative while students from small towns to the north and west will tend to split between the Liberals and the NDP.
08 09 23 R.O.
Will admit making comparisons between this riding and other ridings only goes so far as this riding is somewhat unique in size and demographics. And polls and province wide trends seems to move around a bit. But my sense is that any riding where the conservatives only lost by a few thousands votes is in play this election as liberal numbers are down. Although this riding was a lot closer in 04 than 06 but it still fits into the range of being close. On of the liberals few advantages here is fact Anthony Rota has the incumbent advantage which in northern Ontario is significant but being in opposition has sort of forced him to change focus when compared to his time in government. I still haven’t got a feel for how the new conservative candidate Joe Sinicrope is doing here. But he has got some outside help to come to the riding as I had saw that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had visited North Bay. Although still a rather quiet election up north as no leaders have really visited that area of the province yet.
08 09 22 KRPS
Dr. B and Prof A . . .Since you expect a Liberal victory, I suspect our differences are more of degree than substance, but a couple of points nonetheless. I have lived here for more than 25 years, and have no doubt that the changes in N-T do not come close to the significant changes that have occurred in southern PS-M or eastern R-N-P.
Yes, N-T voters are definitely getting older, but that is hardly likely to bring a shift in voting patterns, which are pretty much fixed by age 60. And I doubt that many of these pensioners are coming from elsewhere to spend their golden years here. There's haven't been a lot new retirement homes built here in 25 years.
As for the base, though there are studies that show U.S. military personnel tend to vote Republican, there are no comparable studies that I know of for Canada. But if it is true, then it has been a steadily diminishing Tory base for years. The base once employed more than 2,000 people full-time, today they say 600 to 700 FTEs. They don't even get 100 uniformed personnel out for the annual Remembrance Day ceremony.
Finally, don't neglect the impact of 7,000 to 9,000 students, and possible voters, attending Nipissing University and Canadore College. Should they vote here, as they are entitled to, they definitely lean left to the Liberals, the NDP and the Green Party.
08 09 19 Dr Bear and Prof Ape
We have to strongly disagree with KRPS, R-N-P and Muskoka-Parry Sound are reasonable comparisons for the North Bay part of this riding to a point. Many current residents of North Bay originated on the small towns to populate those ridings. There are, however just as many residents who come from the actual north (not to mention that a good chunk or the riding is actual north) and tend to be more lefty that the folks further south. Adding to Conservative fortunes would be a sizable retirement community and a large military presence. Does this spell a CPC win? We say no as Rota is a good constituency man and a well known name. True that the PC nearly took this one in the provincial election, but the PC candidate was a well known and popular city councelor. The current CPC candidate is not as well known. However since Dr Bear made his last post, Sinicrope lawn signs have increased substantially. Best estimate is a 2:1 ratio for Rota. However the election does seem to be taking a back seat for most folk.
08 09 18 KRPS
Forget the Conservative trend, which depending on the day, is either for or against them. It's not a factor here.
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke and Muskoka-Parry Sound are not comparable ridings -- they are not northern ridings; over the past 30 years they have regularly swung with the government; and they have experienced greater demographic shifts (and riding boundary shifts) than Nipissing-Timiskaming.
The last time a Tory was elected in Timiskaming was 20 years ago. The ONLY time a Tory was elected in Nipissing (which accounts for 80 percent of the current riding) in almost 100 years was in the Mulroney landslide of 1984. There are no similarities between then and now -- fresh, personable Mulroney vs. not-so-fresh, not-so-personable Harper; popular, municipally experienced local Tory candidate vs. not-well known, inexperienced local Tory candidate; unpopular, despised Liberal government vs. almost pitiful Liberal opposition; Tories polling in the 40s vs. Tories polling in the 30s; decent NDP candidate drawing Liberal votes vs. an unknown from southern Siberia losing NDP votes.
What would it take for the riding to turn blue under the current circumstances? A monster swing of about 10 points to the Conservatives nationally. If it looks like they will win more than 200 seats, the Conservatives will have a shot at Nipissing-Timiskaming, and a few other Northern Ontario seats.
Otherwise this seat stays Liberal.
08 09 14 R.O.
Now that the race in Ontario has turned somewhat in favour of the conservatives according to numerous polls as someone who has been to this riding before. I think this one could turn into more of a race than first though. The reality is Anthony Rota is somewhat of a survivor as most other rural urban mix type ridings in Ontario have gone conservative. Some nearby ridings like Renfrew Nipissing Pembroke and Parry Sound Muskoka have now gone strongly conservative even though they were once fairly safe liberal seats federally. Sure i realise this is a northern riding but it is at the southern edge of northern Ontario and has at times been conservative at provincial and federal levels before. In the last election it was a top tory target and Stephen Harper even visited it twice during the campaign. He is more than likely going to drop by again as North Bay has a full service airport making the riding very easy to visit. Dion might visit the riding as well but its hard to say for sure. As its only week one of the campaign no solid prediction yet.
08 09 13 EAC
Locally Anthony Rota has emerged as a strong constituency man whose leadership strengths have been acknowledged by the Liberal Party since he has moved from the position of Ontario Liberal Caucus Chair to the National Liberal Caucus Chair. His fluency in the three languages used in the riding (English/French/Italian) is a real strength. Meanwhile his local Conservative opponent has not emerged as a Nipissing-Timiskaming voice. That candidate seems to be focussed on social conservative Reform policies which have never been popular in this riding. He certainly has not had a quick start out of the gate.
My pick is for Rota to continue as the MP for this riding.
08 09 12 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
I'm inclinded to say the Liberals have the advantage largely agreeing with what KRPS has said. On the ground though I have noticed that Liberal signs on private property out number Conservative signs about 10:1 (still very early on though). I have not seen any CPC (or any non-liberal signs) on public property either. Sinicrope may have been first out of the gate, having two big billboards (one on northbound Algonquin just south of highway 17, the other on westbound Cassels near the YMCA) put up in January and they stayed for months, but Rota has beet him when the actual election was on (Rota is now on that billboard on Cassels).
08 09 11 KRPS
This is at best a two-candidate almost-race.
Last time the NDP and Green parties picked up a combined 20 per cent of the vote, but only because the NDP candidate was comparatively well-known and popular. That won't happen this time, even with another strong Green candidate.
The Conservatives are also unlikely to do as well. Last time they had a well-known and somewhat popular North Bay city councillor fall short by about 5,000 votes. This time they have a comparatively unknown city lawyer, who in previous political endeavours failed to win election to city council, and lost the federal Liberal nomination to the current incumbent. There is no reason to think he will do any better this time, as his social conservativism plays well with the core Tory vote, but nowhere else.
This is the third time for the Liberal incumbent, who is only getting better both in serving the riding and in campaigning. Whatever votes the NDP and Greens don't retain -- easily more than several thousand votes -- will either go Liberal or stay home.
Since federal issues (are there any?) have little play here, and both the Timiskaming and Nipissing portions of this relatively new riding have long Liberal histories, this is almost as safe a Liberal seat as one can find anywhere.
Look for a Liberal win with an increased margin of victory.
08 03 16 R.O.
It will be another interesting race here and might be a little bit early to call I possibly wonder. Well has been some changes here since the last election, one the conservatives have a new candidate Joe Sinicrope as he beat former candidate Peter Cherico for the nomination. Anthony Rota is obviously running for the liberals again, he has been a member of the liberal opposition. During which he hasn?t done nearly as much as provincial mpp?s have done for the riding like new hospital and hwy 11. He has more or less been a harsh critic of the conservative government. If the riding was only Nipissing I?d be willing to predict conservative win here as the pc?s came within a couple hundred votes of winning that provincial riding and have some strong polls there but federally it?s a different riding, but since it includes large portion of more liberal friendly Temiskaming now I lean undecided.
08 01 07 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
So Johnny-No-Name below wanted to know who will get out of the gate first. Well the answer is Joe Sinicrope. I saw a billboard today (January 7) advertising him and the CPC. Ironically (or not) it was one of the same billboards that Monique Smith rented during the provincial campaign. I will have to agre with Johnny-No-Name, that this riding is not a slam-dunk for the Liberals. We all saw in the provincial election how a well known candidate can make this a close race, even when the PC party was tanking. Residing here, I can see how this riding could be described as ‘naturally conservative’, especially when you compare it with near-by Sudbury. North Bay has a HUGE retirement community (it's hard to find an apartment in this city if you are under 60), not to mention a sizable military presence and many former residents of very conservative ridings a little further south. Sudbury, by comparison, is much more of a union town (mining industry for instance) and would tend to have a left-of-center slant to its voting patterns. The big question remains as to what effect will Timiskaming have. They are akin (economically and demographically) to ridings such as Nickle Belt and Timmins-James Bay. If compelled to make a decision now, I'd say that Rota keeps it, simply due to incumbency. Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives have any real momentum and it is way too early to get a feel of the local race. Just going to have to wait and see.
07 12 25 NJam~101
Although this is really the only part of Northern Ontario with significant Conservative support it is not enough for the Conservative candidate to win in a minority government situation. There has been no momentum for Harper and his party in their first two years in office. Since the Temiskaming portion of the riding was added, it lessens the chance of a Conservative victory. Sure the Liberals haven't gained any support up to now but they haven't really lost any either. There is no evidence or any reason why voters here would switch to support the Conservatives. I could see the NDP gaining a bit. Harper's government hasn't done anything to attract attention or impress those in Northern Ontario.
07 12 10
Well the Cons finally have a candidate. North Bay lawyer Joe Sinicrope. While the incmbent Rota certainly does have the advantage, thie riding is by no means safe for him. If 13 or 14 ontario seats change hands next election, and if the Cons are around the 37-38% range in Ontario, this one flips for Joe. It will be interesting to see who gets out of the gate first with their campaign this time, as last time the Cons were still stiing in the starting blocks when th election was called.
07 07 08 A.S.
Don't be *too* sure about it being an ‘incumbent riding’; after all, Tory Al McDonald lost it provincially in '03, as did Liberal J-J Blais federally in '84 (and his Tory replacement, Moe Mantha, in '88)--heck, even Mike Harris originally got in by defeating a Liberal incumbent. That the gap expanded in '06 is more a measure of Peter Chirico being less of a ‘star candidate’ than Al McDonald (who tried the federal rebound in '04 following his provincial defeat). If there's any current wonkiness by N Ontario federal standards, it's that residual Harris-ian factor of the Tories being, by tradition, way ahead of the NDP as the nominal ‘non-Liberal’ choice; especially now w/extension into Timiskaming. If the momentum is in the Tory sails, NipTim could still fall (esp. w/the right candidate); if it's in the NDP sails instead (and mind the psychology of all those N Ont wins and close calls racked up by Jack Layton), it could just as well wind up saving the seat for Rota, instead. At most, the NDP could plausibly drive a real nail into the Mike Harris coffin by shoving the Tories into third...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Although this is a swing riding and theoretically could go either way, it is really an incumbent riding. Anthony Rota saw the gap between him and the Conservatives go from 5 points in 2004 to 10 points in 2006 despite the fact almost every other riding so things go the other way. Likewise for the Conservatives provincially, Mike Harris managed to hold this riding even in the 1987 disaster. As long as Anthony Rota remains MP, this will stay Liberal. This is only a race when there is no incumbent.

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