Prediction Changed
5:01 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Northumberland-Quinte West
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Christianson, Russ
Macklin, Paul
Norlock, Rick
Torrie, Ralph

Rick Norlock

2006 Result:
Rick Norlock
Paul Macklin **
Russ Christianson
Patricia Lawson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 Mike
Dear SDL, you are incorrect. This riding limits were changed some 8 years ago... therefore changing it from conservate to liberial. Historically Trenton fell under the old riding of Quinte which has been blue, (expect during the right spilt)
08 10 07 S. Fischer
Macklin seems to be everywhere this campaign; at every event, every front door, every special interest group, and now is even invading my news paper and television screen (I was mistaken to think I might escape the election by watching some hockey). His campaign seems very tight... and Dion is even gaining support (to my shock).
Barring a major surge in the vote taken by the NDP, this riding will go liberal by less than 500 votes.
08 09 26 I'm Always Right
If Coburg and Port Hope held 75 per cent of the population in Northumberland-Quinte West I would give Paul Macklin a shot of winning, but Coburg and Port Hope are about 40 per cent of the riding. Macklin has some real support in the small urban part of this riding but Norlock does too. Once your get into the rural areas, the redneck support for Norlock is overwelming. There aren't many Liberals in this part of the riding.
No signs, no campaigning for Macklin. Norlock is going to run away with a very, very easy win this time.
08 09 26 Shotgun Willie
I have to admit I was quite surprised when Paul Macklin came within a couple thousand votes of Rick Norlock in this riding. I thought Norolock was going to win by much more than he did back in 2006. So now we have a re-match between Norlock and Macklin in 2008. This time Norlock has even more of an advantage over Macklin. With the Conservatives leading in the polls Norlock has a clear advantage. Once again the rural section of this riding is clearly supporting Norlock while his campaign has been chipping away at the support Macklin had last time in Port Hope. When the votes are counted on election night, I believe Norlock will more than double his margain of victory in Northumberland-Quinte West.
08 09 24 The Rhyming Bard
How is this too close to call? I was out visiting relatives and was hard pressed to see any evidence of a credible Liberal campaign. The CPC WON this last time and a) they're polling better in Ontario ii) incumbent
08 09 22 Dave M.
Just a quick point that the Armed Forces vote (which lately is typically Conservative) is being administered in a much stricter fashion this year. As per the Canada Election Act, Armed Forces members (in most cases) must vote at polls set up on their respective bases. The votes are then sent to the members riding where they claim their ?Ordinary Residence? which could be anywhere in the country. In the past, this has not been strictly enforced with the majority of members simply voting in the local polls like the other residents in the riding where the base is located. Due to the change this year enforcing the regulations more strictly, there will now be hundreds (and potentially thousands) of votes from military members at CFB Trenton leaving the local riding. Thus it's possible that those many Conservative votes could leave this riding making the race much closer than in the past.
08 09 22 ex-cobourger
When you look at the poll by poll returns from the last election, there are only two regions of the riding where Macklin had an clear advantage (Port Hope and the mobile polls.) By contrast Norlock had a clear advantage in Hamilton, Alnwick/Haldimand, Cramahe, Colborne, Hastings, Trent Hills and Campbellford. The other regions of Bewdley, Cobourg, Brighton, Quinte West, Alderville/First Nation and SVR group did not give a clear advantage one way or the other (in terms of number of polls won.)
I do not believe that either Norlock or the CPC has done enough to alienate their support (at least not yet), in fact most of the polls seem to say that the conservative support is more solid than that of the other parties. Nor does it look like Macklin or Dion have been able to capture much more support (at least not yet).
So barring some major screw up by the conservatives or the liberals suddenly turning their campain around and hitting home runs, I think that Northumberland-Quinte West will remain conservative.
08 09 20 Cnote
This riding will remain with Norlock. The Federal Government is not going to close Warkworth Institution, this speculation was part of a costing report for potential regional facilities in a report to Stockwell Day on the future of the CSC. Just ask anyone who works there what government is best for them. Plus Norlock moved his offices downtown and holds hours in Brighton, Port Hope and Campbellford.
08 09 17 Red
The right side of the war issue? Surely you know that the solid majority of Canadians do not support the current fighting mission in Afghanistan. Anyway, leaving that aside, there are numerous Liberal signs in and around Port Hope. There are also plenty of NDP signs in both Cobourg & Port Hope. I think this is going to be more of a 3 way race than many are expecting. Like last time, I don't think the Greens will draw many votes (last minute candidate, no signs, and voters that change their minds when faced with the ballot).
People I've spoken to are either mad at, or disappointed with, Norlock and the Conservatives. Many like Macklin, but are greatly underwhelmed with Dion and the Liberals extremely lack-luster performance in the last parliament. Christianson is an intelligent and likeable guy who can easily win over undecided voters, of which they're are now many. Don't count this one as anything but too close to call, at least not until a week or so before the vote.
08 09 17 t.b.
I predict that the Liberals will secure this riding. Norlock`s party wants to close the federal prison in the riding, which is a big employer. Paul Macklin worked very hard to help Brenda Martin return home to Canada from a Mexican jail, while Norlock did nothing until he figured he could get his name in the news near the end. The NDP and Greens are not in the race for first place here.
08 09 14 I'm Always Right
There are some Liberal signs in Coburg where there is some support for thr party but Dion's Green Shift is not popular with the rustic farmers who vote in huge numbers in this riding. Rick Norlock is on the right side of the war issue, the tax cutting issue and the anti-enviro issue. No question about it, he's heading for his biggest win ever.
08 09 02 S. Fischer
This election is going to come down to only a few key issues.
1. National Leadership: Firstly, Mr. Dion seems to only be sliding further into oblivion whilst the handlers in the conservative den are attempting to staple a smile of Mr. Harper in his new ‘positive’ pre-campaign spending spree to make him appear almost human. This signals a very tough fight for Mr. Macklin, while Mr. Norlock will be able to continue ‘awaiting his orders from Ottawa’. The Liberal leadership is in tatters, and the best thing Dion can do for Mr. Macklin is let others, Be it Mr. Rae, Mr. Ignatieff etc… be the face of this campaign. However, this is highly unlikely.
2. Local Leadership: Mr. Norlock is a law an order former OPP officer who holds religion, ‘traditional values’ and punitive criminal justice close to his heart. However, since being elected his heart and his body has remained in Ottawa much of the time. Mr. Macklin on the other hand, is a former lawyer who is also incredibly active in the local community. Just look at what he did while in office, and everything since. He has been in the local papers as much or perhaps more than when he was MP… and with his help of that poor woman in Mexico was able to garner international coverage. Therefore, though he is not the incumbent, this bodes well for his ability to retake this riding.
3. Key Issues: I have to disagree with some of the previous posts on some major issues.
a. The base expansion: though this is good for the military families not all of them vote in this riding. Trenton and area tend to be more Liberal, judging by the recent history. On the contrary, the growing unpopularity of the war in Afghanistan and the increasing number of our troops being wounded and killed is not good for the government’s position. Its one thing to support the troops, as I hope we all do, however this does not necessarily translate into support for the Government.
b. Rural issue: as a rural riding, it has been assumed that conservatives support farmers. However, the very positive relationship between farmers and the provincial Liberal government is going to help Mr. Macklin greatly. The conservative support for farmers seems token at best, just look at the lack of financial support and the issues with the wheat board; this will not help Mr. Norlock’s cause. Unfortunately, unless this Green Shift can be better explained, Mr. Macklin will have his own challenges to quell the fears of increased prices at the pumps and beyond.
PREDICTION: At the moment, it is too close to call. When materials and media information begins spinning I will be able to make a better prediction. My assumption is that Mr. Norlock will simply funnel the national messaging, as he has with that egregious criminal justice pamphlet about house arrest (campaign information paid for with government funds). It will be up to Mr. Macklin to steal the show with his message.
08 09 01 R.O.
Not a lot of change here since my last post. Still willing to say Rick Norlock mp has the advantage in this riding. And funding in the riding for the trent severn waterway and cfb Trenton show he has delivered results here. His opponent has not done much really since he lost this seat last election to raise his profile. So I fail to see any reason as to why he would be able to win it back and the liberals carbon tax green shift plan could prove to be a hard sell. Although its still going to be a completive race here as it has been in previous years. But I think Dion’s weakness as leader could prove in the end to be the deciding factor that keeps these ridings conservative. Even though the liberal party still has considerable support in Ontario and ridings like these re-elected there provincial liberal mpp.
08 07 08 David Young
I hate to burst SDL's bubble, but Russ Christensen has been nominated once again as the NDP candidate here. This one has to be T.C.T.C. as the same three candidates for the major parties (and a different one for the Greens) will be on the ballot again. Should be another interesting contest, whenever the election is held.
08 06 02 SDL
Since 1988, this riding has been Liberal for 18 years -- 12 of those by Christine Stewart (in opposition and in Government) and for 6 years by Paul Macklin. Anyone suggesting this riding is traditionally Conservative is ignoring some 20 years of recent history.
As well, the Conservatives that have been elected here tended to represent ?red tories?. The gild is off the lily as everyone now knows who Stephen Harper truly represents.
Finally, in the last election there was a significant rise in NDP vote--this may have been due to a combination of factors (1) popularity of local candidate Russ Christianson (who is not running this time) (2) or a distrust of Paul Martin's leadership.
Look for the riding to return to its recent historical roots and go Liberal again in the next election. Any suggestions around Liberal nominations misses the point. Those nominations were when former Liberal MPs or MPPs retired and it was truly an open contest. Liberals know they have a winner in Paul Macklin who has strong roots throughout the riding and an impressive background in agriculture.
As the old adage goes: ?Governments are defeated not elected.? Mr. Norlock will go down with his government.
08 05 24 Curley Larry and Moe
There are pockets of Liberal polls in Coburg and Port Hope but these urban polls only make up a small percentage of this riding. Rick Norlock won the rural polls by a very large amount in the previous campaign and we see nothing that makes us believe he won't do the same again. Look for Norlock to stretch out his victory to even a greater amount in the next election.
08 05 03 Peg Let Pete
You'd have to look long and hard to find a more rural riding than Northumberland-Quinte West. Add to that the very conservative voting record of military families like the ones at the Trenton base and you have a dream riding for good old boy, Ricky Norlock. Norlock may not be a shining star in our nation's capital but he plays up to the military folks and the farmers in his riding very, very well. There's no question that Ricky ‘supports the troops’ and the war in Afghanistan while the Liberals and NDP are seen here as not doing what's right and supporting our troops.
Others will continue to point out mistakes Norlock has made and will probably keep making but they don't add up to a hill of beans when matched against the conservative base of this riding. I say Norlock wins by 5000 votes here in the next election.
08 04 14 E. Burke
The expansion of the base in Trenton, Norlock's good visibility and availability in the riding, and Harper's steady performance as PM makes it an unlikely loss for the Conservatives.
It would be unlikely for the West end of the riding to go Liberal given the expansion of CFB Trenton and the East end of the riding has no real cause to rally in big numbers against the Conservatives (and Harper) and for the LIberals (and Dion). If more people decide to go Green or NDP this also only plays in the Conservatives favour as the post below suggests. I think given the situation now, 90%-95% chance for the Conservatives is about right.
08 03 21 Free Brenda Martin!
I don't think Rick Norlock helped himself by going to Mexico with Jason Kenney and engaging in a useless 'photo op' with Brenda Martin, the imprisoned Canadian woman who is his constituent after all. Still, consider he beat then-incumbent Paul Macklin (who is offering himself up once again as the Liberal candidate) by a pretty solid margin I think this seat will stay Tory for the time being.
07 12 22 R.O.
Well was leaning too close to call here but now more conservative in favour of local mp Rick Norlock . have noticed a few issues came out of this riding one port hope nuclear issue and police officer who was murdered and couldn’t get medal. But got the sense mp has a good idea of issues important to his riding., but think these types of ridings are unlikely liberal pick ups sure they might be leading in Ontario but winning in Toronto doesn’t equal a win outside GTA. But if this riding was just cobourg and port hope it might be a different story. But as of now it also includes a military base and large rural area. And these are the types of areas federal conservatives do well in Ontario.
07 08 06 A.S.
On paper, this should now be a fairly easy CPC hold; after all, it's mainly rural/small-town, and old school Tory country--trouble is, it's also Toronto-izing itself into a hotbed of rural gentrification, Norlock's an ex-Alliancer, and '06's anticipated blowout of Macklin turned out to be a rather modest 3-point swing--in fact, the NDP (who, as a sleeper phenomenon under Russ Christianson, has risen to verging-on-20% heights yet unseen around these parts) gained more over '04 than the Tories! (The demos are also inherently Elizabeth May-compatible, and the Greens have done surprisingly well in the past on the Port Hope uranium-contamination issue.) Though there's a factor that *could* counteract the gentrification on behalf of the Tories: the Afghan-mission-tweaked presence of CFB Trenton at the E end of the riding. Still, based on previous results, an upset Macklin takeback wouldn't altogether surprise me--or even of Norlock winning reelection under a Saanich-Gulf Islands 3-opponent-split circumstance.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
I am 90% sure the Tories will hold this as this is a rural riding and with Rick Norlock now having the incumbent advantage, it will be pretty tough to win here. However, if the Liberals can get up to where they were right after the convention, they could potentially win this, but otherwise as long as the Tories are within 10 points of the Liberals in Ontario, they should hold this one.
07 04 01 Cnote
Today the local Liberal Riding Association acclaimed Paul Macklin as their candidate for the next election. In 2000 the combined Alliance/PC vote was greater than Macklin's total. In 2004 Macklin won by only 300 votes over former Mike Harris Cabinet Minister Doug Galt. In 2006 voters in this riding held true to their Conservative roots and elected Rick Norlock by over 3000 votes. I remember the days when the Liberals would have hotly contested nomination meetings where well over 1000 members would cast votes in the direction of several contestants. The venue would usually be a high school gymnasium or Arena. Today the Liberals met on the second floor of the old Grafton Town Hall. A beautiful facility, but not very big! Those days appear to be over. These Liberals are said to be in financial dire straits. Macklin is the logical choice for candidate since his name is already on their election signs. Usually when prospects look good nominees come out of the woodwork to try to become the next Member of Parliament. This uncontested victory for Paul Macklin tells me that there aren't many Liberals who felt that the time was right to become the candidate in an effort to beat Norlock. This riding will continue to be Conservative. Norlock is a man of the people. He has a great team, and his constituents have trust in him to represent their views in Ottawa, not to try to advance his own personal profile, unlike their previous MP-Paul Macklin.

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