Prediction Changed
3:16 PM 27/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Parry Sound-Muskoka
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Boulding, Jo-Anne
Clement, Tony
Hodgson, Glen
McGarvey, Jamie
Rowland, David

Hon. Tony Clement

2006 Result:
Tony Clement
Andy Mitchell **
Jo-Anne Boulding
Glen Hodgson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 Gone Fishing
To those speaking about an ABC movement it is hard to fathom NDP and Green support going any further to the liberals.
Clement has had decent profile in government and made no gaffes that I can recall. The people of the riding have a known cabinet minister now. The candidate has had a couple of years to get the blue team behind him and provincially this is a Tory hold. It stayed PC provincially in the swing from the right to the left province wide.
This is typical of the type of seats that Chretien won by dividing the right. With a united right it is the left that is fighting to hang on.
In the last election it was this ABC that stripped the NDP and Green of anything but core support. A couple years later and I think it will be harder to pry these votes. Dion is not resonating and there is a new candidate here. Unless there is some move to the returning NDP vote I can't get this one going anything but blue with a bit more a gap than the nailbiter but not an overwhelming victory.
08 10 11
I was in the area on Thursday and must say that I have to disagree with your conclusion that Mr. Clement has this one wrapped up. The signage isn't telling me that. Tony won by less than a hundred votes last time and, from what I am hearing, he isn't that solid out here. The ‘Anyone But Conservative’ group has been hard at work in this riding. You may see a Liberal pick up here.
08 09 29 R.O.
Well liberal support might not totally collapse here its likely this one will stay conservative as polls done for the battleground ridings as its one of the 20 being polled have indicated the conservatives will hold there existing seats as liberal support is down. One also has to question the logic of the liberal strategy here of having big names from Toronto critise Tony Clement. Mean I do not see the point of bringing Bob Rae from Toronto to this small town riding to critise the existing mp for not being originally from the riding especially considering the fact Andy Mitchell was not originally from this riding either as he was from quebec surprisingly. I think that strategy may have backfired on them here as the visits have not seemed to help there candidate much. There was also a neat article in the globe and mail on the race here mentions how Tony Clement has worked the riding hard since the last election and during this one an example it said they have put up 2300 signs so far. Well the new liberal candidate seems to suffer from a lack of organization and previous issues still haunting the liberals here like the gun registry.
08 09 20 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
I went fot a drive in much of this riding today (nothing election related...just enjoying a natural atributes of the region) and I too noticed that CPC signs out numbered Liberal signs, but depending on the town I'd say more like 2:1 vs 3:1 the other poster stated. There will not be a total collapse in Liberal support but Clement will win by a very healthy margin. Oh yeah and about the drug addicts in Vancouver, most people in this riding never even heard about those clinics, either when they were open or after they were closed.
08 09 15 Erik M
Conservative lawn signs outnumber Liberal ones 3 to 1 from what I've seen so far. The Bracebridge Conservative campaign office is open 7 days a week and is always full of people and information and signs and the Liberal one has two different pamplets and one volunteer. Tony Clement's team is WAY more organized than McGarvey's and I suspect Tony will win.
08 09 08 Stevo
Yeah, I found that comment hilarious too. Right, of course the primary concern of the rural and small-town population in this riding is how easily drug-addicts in far-off Vancouver can shoot up! That will definitely make them rush to the polls to kick Tony Clement out. In other news, large pink animals with curly tails have been spotted gliding through the air today.
The squeaker in 2006 will turn into a landslide in 2008. No contest, here in the heart of Eves country.
08 09 05 Jim
Count me firmly in the ?it was a Mitchell riding, not a Liberal riding? camp.
Clement has worked the riding well and performed competently as a cabinet minister. Landing the G8 summit for Huntsville should help as well.
As for those of you who think that PS-M voters will toss Clement out because he doesn't support junkies legally shooting up in Downtown Vancouver, well, you're completely misreading the political leanings of North-Central Ontario.
I predict a cratering of Liberal support in this riding, and a strong surge in Green Party votes.
08 08 29 JG
The notion that Clement is ?not as hated? as other Harris-era cabinet ministers has no support - he's been an embarrassment on the issue of supervised injection sites and has been missing in action in Denver during the current listeria-contamination crisis. He has lost here before and won in 2006 by less than 50 votes - and this is projected as a CPC hold? It is, at least, TCTC, but I'll go out on a limb and predict that the Liberals will take Parry Sound-Muskoka.
08 03 22 R.O.
Well the liberals found a candidate to run here several months ago that being Jamie Mcgarvey however he lacks the profile or experience that Andy Mitchell had but if you look in the history books he did run before in 88 election. He and northern liberal mp’s are trying to give Tony Clement a hard time however since the last election this mp has been active in this riding doing townhall meetings, fednor funding and numerous other things. And about the large cottage element to the riding and other similar ridings they cannot vote since they are not permanent residents and I doubt too many will choose to get involved with local politics when there on vacation.
08 02 06 A. Lewis
Clement has been loyal and not caused the kind of trouble MacKay has by oh for instance lying to Bill Casey or complaining about the Conservative leadership selection rules. He'll have Harper's support in this riding.
Also Clement is not nearly as hated as other Mike Harris ministers by the left, and is generally perceived as doing a competent job on Health, whether deserved or not, due to progress on issues like recognition of foreign credentials. Of course urban, women's and aboriginal health suffers under Harper rather badly, but Clement doesn't seem to wear that.
He won't lose unless he loses his cabinet post, Harper is removed OR the NDP and Greens realize they can't win in this riding and unite in an anti-Clement coalition. Since the NDP refused to do that in Central Nova against MacKay, and both May and Dion have said there'll be no more such knock-off-the-Cabinet-Minister deals, the chance of such a rational sort of coalition politics is nil. Clement accordingly takes this as incumbent unless some shakeup puts a serious Liberal against him - like a leadership candidate.
08 02 03 CM
Just like with Kenora, this riding may depend on when the election is called, due to the large amount of cottages and summer homes in the region. If enough urbanites are at the lake, even if they have voted in their home riding, it may give an advantage to the more liberal candidates if a few extra signs go up or there are a few extra volunteers. All that being said, I still think Tony Clement has the edge, even at the height of cabin season.
07 12 12 Ogryx
I don't know why there is such a love-in for Tony Clement. He has lost as an incumbent before, and he could very much lose this riding too since it was the closest margin in the country. Maybe the liberals don't have Andy Mitchell but they did have their AGM in Hunstville and Stéphane Dion went in a townhall meeting that local journalists admitted would never have happen with Stephen Harper. I'm predicting this will go back to the liberals.
07 11 20 R.O.
Did some research on the fednor issue here, from what I can find the private members was introduced by Pat Martin ndp but sponsored but Anthony Rota liberal nipissing . In the last few weeks it appears liberals have softened there stance on this issue and if this riding should be in north and Stephane Dion even visited this riding . But either way or no fednor issue here, liberals are without former mp Andy Mitchell. Tony Clement is a high profile cabinent minister and riding has long history of being mostly conservative except 90’s federally but was provincially during that time.
07 11 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
If we're not mistaken, isn't the current proposal to remove Parry Sound from the north an NDP plan? Isn't it Sault Ste Marie's MP Tony Martin's private member's bill? Correct us if we're wrong on that. In any case, we're not surprised that either the NDP or the Liberals would mind sticking it to Parry Sound as they don't have a chance at winning the riding. Especially if this would make more money available to more winnable ridings slightly further north.
07 11 02 R.O.
It seems very odd that the federal liberals and now ndp have decided to push the very same issue which ruined the provincial liberals chances here , that is removing this riding from north. it is not very popular of an idea in this riding and i'm sure residents of parry sound area are not happy they could be removed as well , that area was not kicked out provincially only muskoka back in 2004. you have to wonder what those parties MP's were thinking on that one.
07 10 26 Tony Ducey
How is this still to close to call? Clement wins this easily.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
Clement won this one as a nobody, the media was not talking about him at all, and some people who were not following the election close were surprised to learn he was running, much less winning his riding. He squeaked by a popular former minister, who as far as I understand, is not running again. His old riding has exploded in terms of population, and he probably could not win it back, but his new riding remains as it was many years ago, and it has a history of voting blue. He should be able to re-take this riding.
07 07 26 The Jackal
The Liberals nominated a rather weak candidate here who was soundly defeated in 1988. Plus, the the NDP and Liberals have been trying to shut FedNor out of this region which Mr.Clement has been fighting tooth and nail. Not to mention he has been very active in the riding which pretty much makes him a shoo-in in the next federal election.
07 04 27
All jokes about Kearney beating up Milhouse aside, agreed on the point that this was more an Andy Mitchell riding than a Liberal riding, so to use '06's result against Clement is overdoing it a bit--hey, just think of the last significant recount squeaker around these parts: ‘Landslide Ernie’ Eves, provincially, in 1981. Generically speaking, once PS-M goes Tory, it tends to stay Tory, not least when there's an incumbent in place. Then again, because it's Milhouse, he'll probably figure *some* way to stumble. (NB: esp. w/o Andy Mitchell, PS-M could also be a ‘second place Green’ contender. And it especially would have been so under the now sadly deceased Richard Thomas who, as a Liberal, held Ernie Eves to his 1981 knife-edge...)
07 04 19 Ryan N.
Definitely a Conservative hold. In addition to the popular incumbent advantage, this riding traditionally votes PC provincially. This is the only northern Ontario riding that the Conservatives stand any chance of winning.
07 04 08 Brian Appel
I don't care how close this riding way in the last election; Tony's a Minister of the Crown now and he'll hold his seat without a problem. The Conservative vote rising in Ontario has helped a bit too.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
In all likelihood Tony Clement should keep this since despite its closeness last time around, this has always gone Tory provincially and did federally in every election prior to 1993, so I am guessing many Liberal voters were Andy Mitchell votes as opposed to Liberal votes. Much like Simcoe-Grey which Helena Guergis narrowly won in 2004 went strongly conservative in 2006.
The only question here is this is cottage country and since many of those folks come from Toronto, will they bring their Liberal voting patters with them, as this could be enough to tip things in favour of the Liberals.
07 04 02 Erik
The only reason the vote was so close was because the riding had a popular incumbent. Now clement is the popular incumbent. Expect a CPC hold here by a greatly increased margin.
07 03 29 Ancastarian
Tony Clement barley took this one last time. However, with Conservative numbers rising in Ontario Clement should be able to hold on. He is the Minister of Health, a popular portfolio, and has had time to cement his organization in this riding. Look for him to increase his margin of victory by at least a few thousand votes.

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