Prediction Changed
11:18 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Perth-Wellington
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green
Cowling, John
Christian Heritage
DeVries, Irma
Liberal
Gardiner, Sandra
Marxist-Leninist
Ichim, Julian
New Democratic
McManus, Kerry
Conservative
Schellenberger, Gary Ralph

Incumbent:
Gary Schellenberger

2006 Result:
Gary Schellenberger **
22004
David Cunningham
12301
Keith Dinicol
8876
John Day Cowling
3117
Irma DeVries
1396

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 10 03 R.O.
209.91.149.17
Based on the current polls that favour conservatives and numbers from last election I dont see how either of the challengers could pass Gary Schellenberger here. well the Stratford part of the riding might be annoyed over the arts issue most of the riding is very rural and small towns. The types of polls where the liberals and ndp are unlikely to do that well as they did not win them last time. The mp is also more high profile and well known than his opponents as he has been involved in federal politics in this riding for several elections.
08 09 30 Mount Forest Man
216.110.246.192
I live in the north end of the riding, in the Wellington County portion. To date, I have received nothing in the mail or at my door from any of the campaigns. The candidates have been invisible in my area, save the signs out at the edge of town and perhaps 20 or so in people's front yards. None of the campaigns have engaged the voters in this area.
08 09 25 am
99.241.130.221
This should be very interesting! Gary won over 4000 votes from Stratford last time around. I would be surprised if that community does not rally to support their arts industry. Will it be enough to place the Liberal candidate? Will the NDP lose out to the strategic vote this time around? Depending on the popularity of the NDP and Liberal candidates closer to Election day, this could very well be a too close to call.
08 09 09 unionmade
216.46.133.14
The NDP has a new candidate in Kerry MacMannus a High School Librarian. This will dramatically alter the election environment within Perth/Wellington. As a local environmentalist she will steal a part of the green vote and leave open a place for light liberals that don't agree with Dion's position on the environment. Which from my understanding there are quite a few in this riding at least. Coupled with Conservatives and undecided that are enraged by the whole Tory flop on funding for the Post secondary institution in Stratford, I think Gary may have a harder time retaining his seat that some may think. I'm not saying the NDP will take this seat but they have now at least made it a race and given the people of Perth Wellington a real option to the Conservatives.
08 09 08 Brian M
129.97.41.223
I am hesitant to select conservative as my prediction, but the University of Waterloo funding mini-scandal brought about by Mr. Schellenberger should add some needed drama to this riding. I expect the liberals to make significant gains, but probably not unseat the incumbent.
08 09 07 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
76.64.126.39
Is the previous Liberal prediction some sort of joke? The CPC is way ahead in the polls and are leading in Ontario. So what if the NDP candidate has withdrawn? Combine the NDP and Lib vote and it still wouldn't be enough to unseat Schellenberger. Not to mention the Liberal vote will be eroded by the Greens. The Liberals don't have much hope winning any SW Ontario rural ridings, let alone one that went PC in a byelection waaaaaaaaaaaaaay back in 2003.
08 06 15 Political
99.242.167.131
It will definately be an uphill battle for Sandra Gardiner. However, with Donna Hansen, the NDP candidate dropping out of the race, there is a chance that Ms. Gardiner could be successful. With Mr. Schellenberger being at the helm for a few years now, perhaps Perth-Wellington is ready for a change. John Wilkinson started out in the same boat when he first ran provincially.
08 04 12 R.O.
66.186.79.8
This is a largely rural riding with some urban polls in Stratford. In the last election Gary Schellenberger won it easily doing best in the rural areas but not that bad in the rest. Although the Ontario liberals managed to hold onto this one last fall Im willing to say it had more to with John Wilkinsons personal popularity here. The new federal liberal candidate Sandra Gardiner will have a harder time here then he did.
07 04 24 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Take note of this '06 sleeper stat: within Stratford proper, a united NDP/Green vote would have won by 3 points--and parts of the artsy core practically voted like The-Annex-On-Avon. But then, there's everything else. Basically, we're now talking about a SW Ontario answer to Sask seats like Blackstrap, where however urban goes, rural rules.
07 03 30 Angry Ontarian
24.36.172.204
From when Gary Schellenberger won a by-election here for the old federal PC's, it's been in cruise control for him ever since. Perth County voted Conservative overwhelmingly last time so I doubt there's any Liberal threat here.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Gary Schellenberger won back in 2003 when the two right wing parties were still split and has since won without much difficulty. While Stratford may be more left wing, the rest of the riding is solidly conservative.



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