Prediction Changed
6:34 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Scarborough-Rouge River
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative
Bance, Jerry
Liberal
Lee, Derek
Libertarian
Mercer, Alan
Green
Nagy, Attila
New Democratic
Sloan, Ryan

Incumbent:
Derek Lee

2006 Result:
Derek Lee **
30285
Jerry Bance
9432
Andrew Brett
4972
Serge Abbat
754
Yaqoob Khan
467
Alan Mercer
243

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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07 09 23 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Nick, the trouble with your ?small l liberal voting tendencies? hypothesis is that if Canada *really* followed the British Lib-Lab model in current practice, Scarborough-Rouge River would likely be an ultra-safe Labour seat which'd only go Lib Dem in a Brent East-type byelection. Indeed, Canada's Liberal (Democrat) seats would be mostly in Red Toryish places like the Maritimes or Guelph or Kingston, plus a few byelection gains and similar fluke circumstances, and throw in a few SW Greater London-esque Tory-Liberal marginals for good measure (Etobicoke Centre, maybe? Willowdale?) And maybe even something like Trinity-Spadina would have been an antiwar-protest Lib Dem gain in 2005 (heck, councillor Adam Vaughan's the very embodiment of Lib Dem-esque 'community politics', Canuckistani style). Ah, 'Westminstering' the Canadian parliamentary scene is fun...
07 09 12 Nick J Boragina
74.14.16.208
This is one of the few ridings that vote small l liberal. Unlike itís partner, Mount Royal, which votes big L Liberal (EG they vote for the brand name Liberal, regardless of what it stands for) this riding votes for liberalism. I read a study of a hypothetical situation in which Canada developed a British Party system, in that the NDP was large and it was the Liberals who were small. It was this riding, and a few others in Scarborough and North York, that was hypothesized that the Liberals would hold on to because of the small l liberal voting tendencies in the area. That means two things, that if the Liberals take a swing to the left (as they did during the Trudeau years) that they can lose this riding (look at 1988 when the Liberals took a left, non liberal approach to free trade) However, this election the Liberals are taking a small l liberal approach, and on those grounds, this riding becomes a lock for the grits.
07 04 15 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Aside from his first election in '88 (when PC was still viable), the closest challenge Derek Lee's faced was from Councillor Raymond Cho's 2004 indy suicide run. The seat's electoral record speaks for itself. Then again, as the final non-brownfield urban frontier in the 416, SRR has Toronto's only significant patches of outer-ring-style post-Y2K SUVburbia; and it may be interesting to see, as a litmus, how and if any token outsize Flaherty-budget afterglow is felt in those particular zones. Doesn't matter. Even in the event of a 1984-style Grit-astrophe, Derek Lee's more likely to sink to his '88 level than lose.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Safest Liberal riding in Ontario and perhaps all of Canada. Derek Lee will win a landslide here again. In fact of the Liberals only won 2 seats in all of Canada, this along with Mount Royal will likely be the two they would win.
07 03 22 iloveelections
129.97.247.22
Having won the last several elections handily, Derek Lee should easily overpower any opposition in this riding. Scarborough is probably one of the strongest Liberal bastions in Canada with large immigrant populations so this riding stays red.



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