Prediction Changed
3:32 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Canadian Action
Dugas, DWight
Galganov, Howard
New Democratic
Jalbert, Darlene
Lauzon, Guy
Rawnsley, David
Sabourin, Denis

Guy Lauzon

2006 Result:
Guy Lauzon **
Tom Manley
Elaine MacDonald
Doug Beards
Carson Chisholm

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 09 19 PeterC
Okay, with so much nothing going on in and around here I've switch my prediction if not my side. Conservatives seem to have this one wrapped up with no other party doing much to fight Guy. I do not see him being unseated at this time. The Galganov threat has not materialized.
08 09 16 Jack Russell
The Liberals just had the launch (non-pun intended) of their campaign office with Marc Garneau as the special guest. This event, according to local media, only drew approximately 60 supporters. Not a very good sign, as this is most likely the die-hard faithful who would vote Liberal if a dead cat was the candidate. After week one, I remain unchanged with my prediction.
08 09 12 Bernard Manning
I hear what you say but I can't see that size of metric flopping over the Provincial border. Granted, Cornwall and environs are a problem town to say the least but I'm not sure what you do with someone who authored a book called ‘Bastards’ in sleepy and dozy Eastern Ontario. It may appeal to some of the 'YouTube' generation but this is really Bob & Tom country. With Domtar coming down and some hope on the horizon regarding redevelopment and jobs. Please.
08 09 11 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
As an anglo Quebecer who grew up in NDG during the height of the lingustic tensions, I know Mr Galganov...I know him well. I actually had one of his ‘presque pure laine’ hoodies from his little shop that defied the language laws (still have it actually...slightly torn from road hockey though). He likes to make a lot of noise but when he does not get universal support for his political views, he has a hissy fit and goes home and writes some angry column. He ran for election in Mount Royal in '97 (I believe) and got something like 30% of the vote. He was up against Sheila Fienstone (spelling?) a very popular Liberal MP in the most Liberal riding the is...and he came second with 30%...back when it was good to be a Liberal...that's a great result! Instead he fighting on he stormed off to St Lazare (I think it was). Thing is in 97 NDG-Lachine was an open seat and had he run there he would have had a fighting chance of winning it. In any case, I put little to no stock in his most recent electoral venture. He will lose once again and then run away and pout in his room until he gets bitten by the electoral bug again.
08 09 11 Roberth Jones
Galganov might take some votes away from the CPC but I don't think it will be enough to unseat Mr Lauzon. He's been a good MP and people here seem to like him
08 09 10 PeterC
I almost forgot that Galganov is putting in his nomination papers as an independent this election. That will cut into the conservative vote as well. His platform is anti-french, anti-government which will cut into some of the conservative support base.
08 09 09 Bernard Manning
Mmmm. So Denis Sabourin comes back to Cornwall from the Yukon(?) and nobody is supposed to know he was a former staffer to the now Major Bob Kilger who spent about 15 years in Parliament? That's before we get to the sale of the Domtar plant which is now demolished but subject to a $40M lawsuit re mercury contamination.
08 09 08 Jack Russell
The Liberals have just nominated Denis Sabourin so the race is on. Denis is a good and decent man who definitely has the experience, intelligence and background to serve as MP. Unfortunately, although I like Denis and think he would be a wonderful MP, I'm going to call this one for Guy Lauzon and the Conservatives. The money, organization and head start are all there. Not to mention the benefits of being the incumbent. Realistically I think the Liberals can narrow the gap a little bit from the last election, but will not gather nearly enough momentum this time around to unseat Lauzon.
07 04 04 A.S.
Actually, Stormont-Dundas very much should have been on the Conservative radar screen in 2004, because it was all foretold by Lauzon's astonishing (and more genuinely off-radar) result as the Canadian Alliance(!) candidate in 2000. And as solid as Lauzon's '06 result was, it might have been tweaked by the fact that ex-Green Tom Manley was a catastrophe as a Liberal candidate, cheering the shuttering of Cornwall's Domtar plant, etc. Now that Quebec's ADQ victories have apparently vindicated whatever Lauzon's success foretold, it's a most inopportune time to target him for defeat...
07 04 04 Stevo
How times change. Stormont-Dundas was NOWHERE on the Conservative radar screen in 2004, and yet it became one of the surprise pick-ups of that election. It was assumed that a riding with a large francophone population, and adjacent to Montreal, couldn't possibly take a chance on a Conservative candidate. Guy Lauzon's solid performance as an MP led to a landslide victory in 2006, following the general Eastern Ontario trend. If the right-wing ADQ trend in Quebec politics spills over into Franco-Ontario quarters, Lauzon's majority may even increase the next time around.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
In 2004, the Liberals won Cornwall by 12 points, yet still lost the riding by 8 points, so they would need at least a 20 point lead in Cornwall to retake this. Add to the fact while Cornwall is not as Conservative as rural Ontario, it isn't as Liberal as Toronto either. Either way Guy Lauzon will be heading back to Ottawa.
07 03 30 Brian Appel
This is my riding, and I'm torn. Here in Cornwall, the Liberals are quite popular. The mayor is the former MP for the riding, and Jim Brownell is a popular MPP. But this is a rural riding, predominantly, being that it contains several little towns across the counties of Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry. Small towns=Conservative voters, for the most part. Guy Lauzon is a Harper yes-man, nothing more, but Harper's right-wing social policies strike a chord with the Catholics that make up a large part of the riding of SDSG. I won't call it until I see who the Liberal candidate is going to be.
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Once upon a time this was hard core Liberal, especially Cornwall. All fairy tales have an ending and that one is over! Lauzon seems to be incredibly popular, getting 55% of the vote in 2006. That's right up there with true blue ridings like Leed-Grenville, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembrooke and Carelton-Mississippi Mills.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster