Prediction Changed
3:34 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bevilacqua, Maurizio
Lorello, Richard
Visentin, Adrian
New Democratic
Wilkin, Vicky

Hon. Maurizio Bevilacqua

2006 Result:
Maurizio Bevilacqua **
Richard Majkot
Yurgo Alexopoulos
Adrian Visentin
Paolo Fabrizio

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 03 22 binriso
One other thing is that Bevilacqua holds the record for biggest margin of victory in any Canadian election ever (51 000+ votes) in York North in 1993.
08 03 21 Stevo
If there was a riding the Conservatives wanted to point to to prove that the Liberals have their own extreme social conservatives, they could easily cite Vaughan. The Italian community here is one of the most socially conservative in the country, the kind of place where abortion is roundly condemned, and gay youths are disowned by their families. The attitudes of some of the people here would make many hardened Crowfooters blush. And yet, they vote Liberal in such huge numbers as to make Vaughan the 'Mount Royal' of the 905. Such is the power of the Liberal brand name among the Italian-Canadian voting bloc.
07 10 04 binriso
I dont think youll find a stronger 1/2 Federal and Provincial Liberal riding thats as good as this one. Bevilacqua and Sorbara both have their seats for as long as they want. Easy win here with 60% at least for the Liberals.
07 08 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Yes things could change here, but to compare Vaughan with Terebonne and the switch from PQ to ADQ is misleading. Quebecers (Dr Bear being one) are notorious for voting with their passions, unlike Ontarians who tend to be more cautious. But any case, who cares? This riding is becoming more and more like Toronto proper and in this political climate means that it is going to stay Liberal by a healthy margin.
07 04 09 A.S.
Yes, things could change here, just as nobody expected towns like Terrebonne and Repentigny to switch from BQ to ADQ. Still, keep in mind that the parts of Vaughan which cinched Al Pal's victories--Thornhill and Richmond Hill in '95, Aurora in '99--have, due to Vaughan's massive growth, been pared away. Now, the seat is almost completely Woodbridge and Maple. The window for potential Tory support is shrinking with each redistribution. A breakthrough here means the Tories have swept the 905, and the Liberals are even worse off than John Turner in 1984. That's the truth.
07 04 02 Stevo
Despite the astonishing majorities historically won by Bevilacqua - we're talking rural-Alberta-Conservative style majorities - I really think this riding could be vulnerable with a new, non-incumbent Liberal candidate and a respectable Conservative candidate. This riding (or much of it anyway) was held provincially by arch-Harrisite the late Al Palladini in the 90s and could very well be a federal Tory prospect in the future. However, with Bevilacqua staying on, he will win again in another landslide.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
The margin Maurizio Bevilacqua won by was too large to overcome. Besides he is generally on the right on fiscal issues while on the left on social issues so even accusations that Dion is moving to the left shouldn't affect him.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
The Harper government recently announced an expensive extention of the subway system into Vaughan, something that many have suggested will win him votes. It's possible, but if so it will not be enough. This is one of the most solidly Liberal ridings in the 905, and even with the subway extending outside of the normal TTC area for the first time in history, I dont see that it will be enough. The grits should be able to retain this riding, it is theirs to lose.
07 03 25 G. Kennedy (not that one)
This is probably the safest Liberal seat in the 905 region. Moreover, Bevilacqua has established himself as a staple in this riding. There is 0% chance of him losing the seat to anyone in the near future and certainly not in this election.

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