Prediction Changed
12:19 PM 19/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Allen, Malcolm
Di Bartolomeo, Jody
Kiers, Alf
Maloney, John
Mooradian, Jennifer
Walker, Ron

John Maloney

2006 Result:
John Maloney **
Jody Di Bartolomeo
Mel Grunstein
Brian Simpson
Irma Ruiter
Ron Walker

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 prognosticator15
I agree with Bear and Ape that any call here is a very close one. Many things will depend on the turnout, and thus even on election day weather. But if one is pushed to decide or just make a guess, I would say there is a slightly higher chance of a Liberal win here due to incumbency advantage. Cons. slide in the polls has stopped and they have the momentum, but if there is a riding where market decline, perception of the events just happened, and reactive reaction to the events are important, it would be in a riding like this, with many working class voters, relatively low education level, and many people deciding at the last moment. Much depends on advertising and candidate visibility as well. In Port Colborne and the surrounding area, all three are very well advertised, will lots of signs, although I do not know the situation in Thorold and Welland. People tend to attribute economic downturns to the governments, even if the government has little to do with this, and Dion's call to defeat the Cons may be more positively received here than in many other places. The paradox is Dion's ineffective campaign based on the hated carbon tax and tax increases, may resonate better in the ridings with Liberal incumbency, even if for no other reason than to make a point to the government. The polling numbers for Ontario going into the final day can result in just that kind of an outcome: the Tories keeping their seats and the Liberals keeping theirs (except in a couple of Ontario seats). I do not trust the polls for one riding only, the margin of error is too high. I would not be surprised by any result in this interesting three-way race, but still give advantage to a Liberal.
08 10 12
A poll released by the Thorold news on Saturday shows the Liberals in third!
Kiers 28%
Allen 27%
Maloney 21%
Mooradian 5%
DiBartolomeo 1%
Walker 0%
margin of error +/- 5.8
08 10 10 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The numbers we saw for Welland are very close: Libs 30, NDP 29 and Cons 27. This was before the Dion gaffe in that Halifax interview. This will probably make a few voters take pause and could ultimately hand this to the NDP. Those who would change their vote would be split between the NDP and the CPC, and with the NDP ahead of the CPC, they would likely gain. Truth be told, we don't think that this gaffe will have much of an impact and incumbent advantage would help the Liberals, but if it does watch this go NDP.
08 10 07 pj
Maloney by at least 2000 votes. The Conservative candidate or should I say Christian Heritage shows the Harper agenda is alive and strong, don?t be fooled by his blue sweater.
08 10 06 patrick
The NDP are outsigning the other parties, at least in Welland, Thorold and St. Catharines (I haven't been to Port Colborne or Wainfleet). Christina Blizzard of the Toronto Sun predicts an NDP win. Polling at is indicating an NDP lead. The NDP came close to winning the last federal election with a marginal campaign. This time they have a team with a lot of experience and, in my view, a better candidate. Jack Layton has already visited the riding and is rumoured to be coming again. I think Maloney is toast.
08 10 06 On the Ground
The NDP's Malcolm Allen is clearly the one to beat in Welland. He has the most signs, he has the most volunteers, he even has the Liberal and Conservative candidates attacking his party in campaign brochures and in media interviews.. would they bother if he weren;t in the lead? A week ago, Welland was probably the most exciting three-way race in the country. This week, Allen has emerged as the one to beat. Both CAW and have given him the nod as the straegic choice to defeat the Tories in Welland. The Toronto Sun has also called the riding for the NDP.
08 10 03 chewie
I think the fact that Dibartolomeo joined this race helps us dippers. he has a strong ethnic following in Port Colborne (his home town), and without him in the race would have seen that following vote Liberal. What he has done is taken those liberal votes away, witch only strengthens the NDP's position in this riding. I think in this riding no one is running a stronger campaign than the NDP and with the economic impact of plant closures in Welland and Port Colborne and the rumors of more to come the NDP following has just gotten stronger
08 09 29 Paxe
Poor-ish. White. Working-Class. If this were England I wonder if this would be BNP territory. But this certainly isn't England.
Generalizations aren't always 100% correct but one always has to generalize on these sites and they can still give you a pretty good idea of an area. For the most part it's pretty much like what I described. Rust-belt territory cum Call centre paradise. There is the odd neigbourhood that's more firmly middle-class here and there, but for the most part, most of Welland, Port Colborne, Thorold, and South St. Catharines are leaning that way. (For the last time, Fonthill is mainly in the Niagara-West riding)
I think it tends toward being far-left economically, sometimes even fervently or angrily so, culturally, or 'socially' I don't actually think it's that conservative, it's not really liberal or anything but it's kind of blandly middle-of-the-road.
In what ways the feelings of the people in the riding get channeled in the course of an election campaign is what's up in the air. In that respect this riding could go in any direction.
08 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're with Stevo on this one. Get the impression that EPP guys caved in to pressure from posters to call certain ridings early. Looking at the numbers from last time and the current political climate this is a threeway race.
08 09 27 Stevo
I can't believe that this site is calling this one so quickly, and in an election in which the Liberal Party appears to be freefall. The results from the last election alone should keep Welland TCTC until a week before the election, at the earliest. I think it's plausible that we could see the Liberals shut out of the Niagara Penninsula altogether. Whether Welland defaults to the the Tories or the NDP (I'm leaning toward the former, considering the right-leaning bent of the Niagara region, and using Oshawa and Cambridge as examples of ridings with large working-class populations that have voted blue).
08 09 23 Gerry O
To the Tory supporters - if you want to be competitive in places like this, run a better candidate. Sorry folks, a former Christian Heritage who has run for just about everything and lost - even a spot on Wainfleet council - isn't going to get it done. Not up against an experienced and respected MP.
And sorry to break it to all the NDP supporters hoping for some Kormos-inspired federal momentum here - nobody knows who Malcolm Allen is! Nobody! He's a town councillor from Pelham, meaning he doesn't even live in the riding. Throw into the mix the independent Jody DiBartolomeo - a former three-time NDP candidate - and I think that's the nail in the coffin for your boy Allen. He'll only erode votes from Allen, not Maloney, and worse for Allen, it points to dissention among local dippers and lack of faith in Jack Layton and his super-hilarious 'I want to be prime minister' schtick.
Here's a real prediction.
Maloney takes Port Colborne and most of Welland and wins by a solid 4,000 votes this time.
08 09 23 Shotgun Willie
There seem to be a lot of Conservatives and New Democrats upset with this site for calling Wellend for the Liberals. I believe a Liberal call is the correct one for these reasons. Other than Fonthill and a few polls in south St.Catharines, there is no Conservative base in this riding. Welland, Thorold and Port Colborne have voted consistantly for the Liberals federally and the NDP provincially for over a quarter century. This simple fact makes a Conservative victory very, unlikely. The NDP face a number of challenges in this election. First of all, of the four ridings in Niagara, the Green Party is running by far their strongest campaign in the Welland riding. The Green Party received just short of 2000 votes in 2006 and without a doubt will increase that total mostly at the expense of the NDP. Then there was the announcement by former two-time NDP candidate Jody DiBartolomeo that he is running as an independent.
Di Bartolomeo ran a strong second in the last two elections. He has more than enough name recognition and local supporters to draw at least 1500 to 2000 votes. People voting for Di Bartolomeo are NDP supporters and no one else. The loss of support to the Green Party and the Di Bartolomeo campaign make it very unlikely a first time candidate like Allen has any chance of catching Liberal Maloney. Maloney is once again running the best campaign in this riding and will hold Welland again for the Liberals.
There are just too many challenges for the NDP to overcome in this election. Calling this riding Liberal is correct.
08 09 23 TPMac
For someone to say that the Liberals are third in this riding, is completely out of touch in the riding. The NDP candidate is not even from the riding and is an unknown in most parts. He is borrowing any base he might have from the NDP MPP. The Conservatives have a right wing former CHP candidate which indicates a strong right wing agenda. An ideal candidate for Harper who mostly sealed Kiers' fate with his recent tobacco announcement in Welland in light of John Deere. On the contrary, Maloney has strong local support, a substantial and experienced campaign team, and has worked hard for individuals for 15 years. If someone is going to base its prediction on the ?sign war?, perhaps that individual should take a drive through the entire riding. It is painted with red signs.
08 09 22
Calling this riding for the Liberals is just ridiculous. The Liberals are likely running third at this point. On the ground, they are struggling with the fewest lawn signs and lack of volunteers. This is shaping up to be a race between the Tories and the NDP. If the NDP can win over 20% of the vote in Ontario, Welland will elect its first ever NDP MP. They have a better candidate, a better organization, and oodles of volunteers (due to the string of plant closings). If on the other hand, the Tories surpass 40% in Ontario, Welland will elect a Tory. Both the Tories and the NDP will have to drop in the polls significantly in order to call this one for the Liberals.
08 09 22 M. King
To call this for the Cons is a joke. 1) Harper came down here and basically spat in the face of the workers here by going on about flavoured cigarettes and not job creation. 2) Kiers is a former Christan Heritage Party candidate in this riding. Who would willingly vote for those nuts? I'm not one to get tricked into the idea that all ‘cons are dangerous, fundamentalists, sneaky,etc’ but the CHP? Over my dead body, Conservative.
08 09 22 timf
I don't think there is any way the Conservatives can pull off a win in Welland. The Conservative support base is limited to Wainfleet and the more affluent parts of Welland and South St. Catharines. Thorold always votes strongly for the NDP, both Federally and Provincially, and most of Welland is also strongly NDP. In order for the Conservatives to win, they'd have to seriously erode the left-of-centre support in Thorold, Welland and Port Colbourne, which is nigh impossible.
08 09 20 DD
This is going to be a more interesting riding than people think. While the Conservatives are generally seen as also-rans, that really isn't the case. True, they tend to run third, but they're not a distant third. With a weak candidate they came within 3600 votes of John Maloney last time (and only 600 behind the NDP.) The entry of DiBartolomeo will split the NDP enough to send them to third. Then, consider: the Conservative candidate is stronger than in 2006. If the national trends are at all reflected in Welland (ie, Conservatives stronger than last time, the Liberals weaker) then the Conservatives could pull this off. The wild card is the closing of JOhn Deere in Welland, but while some see this as a help to the NDP, don't be so sure. Again, the national trend is to see the Conservatives as the choice for economic issues. I don't detect any great anger at Stephen Harper. People may not be fond of him or have great affection for him, but my sense is that they've also become comfortable with him. I think this will be a surprise.
08 09 20 Wellandboy
Right now this one is still TCTC, but some clear patterns are emerging nationally. While Maloney would seem to have an insurmountable lead, it takes a star candidate to really buck a trend. Maloney is a survivor, not a star. Steady progress by the Greens is diluting the GreenShift message, eroding Liberal strength everywhere.
While the NDP would seem to be the natural beneficiary of this, the candidacy of DiBartolomeo complicates matters for them.
In the meantime, the CPC is ignoring their negative press clippings, and taking this contest very seriously indeed. Recent visits to the riding by Rona Ambrose and the PM himself prove they are conceding nothing.
Should be an interesting night on the 14th, but I want to be the first to call this for Alf Kiers.
08 09 19 Pierre from Québec
I can't believe this has been called for the Liberals. I'm shocked! People last election voted for the NDP, not for Mr. DiBartolomeo who nobody cares about. Jody DiBartolomeo was very low-profile candidate. This time the NDP has the best ever candidate in Welland and with some industry closures in this area, the advantage is clearly with the NDP and Malcom Allen.
08 09 18 Shotgun Willie
Bad news for NDP candidate Malcolm Allen in the Welland Tribune today.
Former NDP candidate Jody Di Bartolomeo has announced he has ‘lost hope in Jack Layton’ and will be running as an independent in Welland. Jody got over 17,000 votes in the last election, has high name recognition and and lives in Welland where most of the population in this riding is. Di Bartolomeo is going to cut into Allen's vote which has already been sliced up by the Green Party. The Conservatives are just not a factor in Welland so with the NDP vote split between an unknown candidate like Allen, Di Bartolomeo and the Green Party, Liberal John Maloney is now clear to cruise to another victory. This one is over.
08 09 18 timf
Things just got a lot more interesting in Welland. Jody Dibartolomeo, the former NDP candidate, announced he will be running as an independent in the election. After losing the 2006 election, he was asked by the press what had happened, and he replied ‘the voters of Welland f**ked me again.’ This was one of the many reasons why the local New Democrats did not nominate him for 2008. Dibartolomeo has family in the Port Colborune part of the riding, and has some limited support in Welland; these two factors could split enough of the vote from Malcolm Allen to allow the Liberal to run up the middle and win. In some ways, Dibartolomeo's revenge candidacy may be what allows the Liberals to keep the riding.
08 09 17 timf
Hannah Montana - I think you're underestimating the NDP campaign in the riding. Welland is one of the 40 riding the NDP have targeted and the local campaign is very strong. Layton was already in the riding - expect him to be back again. I would also submit that the Candidate, Malcolm Allen, is fairly well known in the riding - he's the deputy mayor of Fonthill, and because of that he receives quite a deal of local press coverage. While the NDP are targeting the riding, the Liberals are fighting a strong campaign, and I think the riding will be too close to call until election night.
08 09 26 Hannah Montana
The NDP are never going to win this seat unless they actually try mounting a campaign in Welland. NDP candidate Allan is totally unknown in Welland, Thorold and Port Colborne and running a campaign under the radar isn't going to help. The Conservatives are doing their usual job of ignoring this riding and this leaves the current MP Maloney with a definite advantage. Look at the streets in Welland/Thorold that are lined with Kormos signs during provincial elections and there's nothing there.
Maloney is going to win here by default. This riding just has too much of a Liberal tradition for the NDP to take it without running a strong candidate and mounting a campaign.
08 09 05
Honestly, I've worked off and on for the NDP in this riding for several years now and I felt I'd throw my opinion into the ring. First off, the former NDP candidate, Jody Dibartolomeo, did not choose not to run but was defeated in a hotly contested nomination meeting by the current candidate, Malcolm Allen. I've spoken to the man once or twice and he's certainly got the credentials and speaking ability the Jody sadly did not. I do think this will be a close race- but the amount of time and money the federal NDP is spending in this riding will make it anything but a cakewalk for Maloney. Layton has been down to Welland 3 or 4 times over the past year and a half, far more than the previous election, and has sent paid NDP workers here to work on the campaign. These are not the signs of a riding the NDP does not think it can win. The NDP doesn't have the kind of money that the Liberals and Conservatives have, so I would take them spending any kind of money as a sign that they're ready to win here. Maloney's record is rather lack-luster in my opinion and a strong candidate with federal support can topple him here.
08 09 02
The closure of John Deere should galvanize NDP support in this riding.
08 04 28 Peg Leg Pete
John Maloney always had a tough time winning his seat when he had Beamsville,Smithville,West Lincoln, Fort Erie and Dunnville in his riding. They all belong to Niagara West Glanbrook while Maloney now has Liberal friendly Welland, Thorold and some of south St.Catharines in his riding.
Maloney is from Port Colborne and wins big there. Welland has a long tradition of voting heavily for the federal Liberals while Thorold has always had a Liberal base. South St.Catharines isn't strong Liberal teritory but Maloney does OK there and he loses the Fonthill section to the Tories. With the Liberals up in the polls, guys like Maloney who survived the loss of power in 2006 aren't in any trouble this election.
The NDP have a weaker candidate and the Conservatives don't put up much of a campaign in this riding because they know they'll always finish third.
For those reasons, John Maloney's long career in Ottawa will continue.
08 04 18 A.S.
Stevo: the Alliance didn't come close to beating the Liberals in Welland in 2000 because the riding in its present form did not exist then. It was *John Maloney* I was referring to as the near-victim, because he was the incumbent in Erie-Lincoln--the heart of whose Alliance support was inherited by Niagara West-Glanbrook, where the candidate who gave Maloney his 2000 scare, Dean Allison, now happens to be the Tory incumbent. (Even I acknowledged re Maloney that ‘redistribution gave him a more congenial riding’.)
08 04 10 Stevo
Welland is another socially conservative riding where the people nonetheless give most of their votes to left-wing parties. Although the Conservatives are doing well among the Canadian equivalent of Reagan Democrats in Oshawa and Cambridge, Welland is far poorer than either of those cities, perhaps too far down the economic ladder for the Tories to take off here. They will continue to remain competitive though, as the 2004 and 2006 results testify (btw A.S., a near-victim of the Alliance in 2000? I checked the numbers and the Alliance didn't come anywhere close to beating the Liberals in Welland in 2000). For now, still a Liberal/NDP battle with the Liberals having the clear edge due to incumbency.
08 03 22 Curley, Larry and Moe
Welland is another riding where the growth of the Green Party at the expense of the NDP makes life easier for the Liberals. You shouldn't take our word for it. Just look at what the NDP are doing here. They had a well known two time candidate in Di Bartolomeo but couldn't convince him to run again because a win just isn't in the cards. With a lesser candidate and the Green Party chipping away at NDP support, the Liberals look all set in Welland. It also helps the Liberal chances that John Maloney is seen as a right wing Liberal. This helps protect his right flank and keeps the Conservatives from making gains here. It's all about demographics in Welland and Maloney has them going for him. Welland will remain Liberal.
08 03 06 Doug The Slug
I have to admit I was shocked when I saw that an NDP member actually predicted his party could win Welland! Usually the NDPers wait until the writ to load up on Welland with predictions of victory that in the end never happen. Every election the NDP think the large Fracophone population in Welland that supports Peter Kormos provincially will finally shake lose and move to the NDP in a federal election. Liberal Maloney knows his bread and butter is the French vote in Welland and works them 365 days a year. Sorry but there's no change in Welland. It stays Liberal and in fact the NDP won't do as well as they did last time.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
I have to say that ‘Suaveman’ is totally wrong saying that the NDP have a strong candidate in Malcom Allen. Nominating a New Democrat from the Fonthill part of this riding makes now sense. The NDP take a terrible beating in Fonthill and Allen won't change that. When it comes to Welland and Thorold, Allen is a complete unknown so he won't do as well as the more high profile Jody Di Bartolomeo who ran in the last two elections for the NDP and developed a profile in the riding. I think if the NDP really had a shot Jody would line up to run again. John Maloney will win Port Colborne, Welland big, loses to the NDP in Thorold and the Conservatives in Fonthill. That means Maloney wins again no problem. I predict Maloney wins by 5000 votes this time.
08 02 22 Suaveman
The NDP do have a good candidate here: the deputy mayor of Pelham, Malcolm Allen. Given that Welland is hard-core dipper in the provincial, I would be optimistic if I were the NDP.
08 02 22 Doug the Slug
Liberal John Maloney has good connections in the party and has hosted a long list of high profile Liberals in his riding over the last 6 months.
The NDP and Conservatives have done nothing in the Welland riding to indicate they think there's any chance of knocking off the very popular Maloney. I have to agree with ‘I'm Always Right’ that there's only one riding up for grabs in this region and it's St. Catharines. The NDP and Conservatives will throw everything they have into that riding and will forget about taking a shot at Welland. Election day is only 7 weeks from now and it's time to hand this riding to the Liberals.
08 02 09 Quick Draw
Rust belt cities like Welland, Thorold and Port Colborne have it tough even when the economy is booming. Now that the Canadian economy is slowing, this riding is taking a beating. That means the CPC don't have any chance here as angry poor people in this riding will blame Steve Harper for their troubles. The NDP always think they have a chance in this riding but will come up short again simply because Layton and company are bleeding votes to the Greens and they can't come up with a good candidate in Welland. Looks like another term in office for Maloney who's known as ‘Mr. Invisible’ on Parliament Hill. In politics sometimes its better to be lucky than good.
07 12 08 I'm Always Right
It really is time to officially give this riding to the Liberals. John Maloney has a personal popularity in this left leaning riding that will help him hold the seat. There's just no base for the Conservatives to build on here. Welland and Thorold have been traditionally Liberal for decades and adding Port Colborne to the riding makes it a lock of the Grits. The Conservatives will throw another token candidate in against Maloney and nothing more. The Liberals and Conservatives know the only race in Niagara is in St. Catharines so Maloney will cruise to another victory. This time by 4000 votes.
07 09 03 Gerry O.
This is another Maloney win. Bank it. He's the only remaining Grit MP in the Niagara Region for a reason. Well respected across the board, I just can't see how a former Christian Heritage candidate or a Pelham town councillor can stack up with 14 years of experience.
And in response to whomever suggested other victories were a matter of dumb luck, you're kidding yourself. Maloney runs one of the toughest, most aggressive campaigns of any politicians in this area. There is nobody who knocks on more doors and can outshine him in a debate.
07 07 02 A.S.
Tug O'War over who can beat the Grits here. A near-victim of CCRAP in 2000, John Maloney has to thank his lucky stars that (a) redistribution gave him a more congenial riding, and (b) the unforeseen Peter Kormos-effect NDP 2nd place surge basically handed him the seat on a platter. So, such electoral dumb luck atop dumb luck leaves him the last remaining Grit in Niagara and all along the Lake Erie/Talbot Road corridor, besides! '04's opposition gridlock basically compounded itself in '06; NDP went up in share and held its second place, but the Tories went up marginally more, so the who's-got-the-opposition-advantage picture's no clearer. (The Dippers lost ground in Thorold, but gained more ground in Port Colborne: good news for Kormos' provincial electoral chances.) Now that the NDP's lived up to best instincts by nominating a municipal politician (albeit parachuted) and CPC's fed the worst stereotypes by nominating an old CHP/FCPer, maybe it's now clearer who has the upper hand...but given the respective political parties we're talking about and their long-term histories, who knows, who cares, whatever. Just don't read Maloney's so-far survival as an emblem of safety, though it certainly turns Welland into a consistently quirkily interesting--and unique, by Ontario standards--riding to watch.
07 04 19 Elmo Harris
This is an easy win for the Liberals. John Maloney is very popular and is a tireless advocate for the people in this riding. The NDP on the provincial level has not been very effective in spite of the popularity of Peter Kormos and the people of Welland are tired of swimming upstream provincially. The NDP has no chance of forming the government and Malcolm Allen would only act as a spoiler further moving the people of this riding away from the mainstream. The Conservatives haven't got a chance in this riding.
07 04 06 B. Miller
This one should be safely Liberal. Maloney has been a good MP for Welland and I don't see the people of this riding growing tired of him. Couple that with a weak NDP candidate, who does not live in the riding and only has rudimentary knowledge of local issues, and The Liberals should hold here.
07 04 01 Informed Voter
With Malcolm Allen nominated as the NDP candidate, the party's long awaited federal breakthrough in this provincially held NDP riding may finally come to fruition. Maloney's decision to oppose same-sex marriage puts him into the same socially conservative camp as Kiers and the NDP will likely exploit this for all it's worth. Admittedly, the NDP is not riding as high in the polls these days, but neither are the Liberals. Allen, however, will have a much better team around him than the previous NDP candidate, and Jack Layton will be expected to pay the riding a visit (something he did not do in 2005-2006). It will be close, but my money is on an NDP pick up.
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
I believe this will be a bell-weather riding and it will come down to the national campaign. Last election saw both the NDP and the CPC close the gap on John Maloney, a 14 yr. veteran MP. Both the NDP and CPC have nominated a new candidate this time around. The NDP nominating Pelham Deputy Mayor Malcolm Allen and the CPC nominating Alfred Kiers, who already lost to Maloney in 1997 when he ran for the Christian Heritage Party and then lost in 1999 Provincial Election when he ran for the Family Coalition Party of Ontario.
I think Kiers may be a liability here for the CPC. Despite the CPC rising popularity, this is exactly the kind of Conservative that will not well in this particular riding and it may end up hurting the party here. However, that being said, I'm sure Kiers will be competitive here. I think it will be a very tight three-way race and until the national picture clears up closer to an election, I believe this riding will be TCTC. Give the Liberals an edge with the incumbency factor.
07 03 29 King of Kensington
This could stay Liberal or go NDP. It should be a top target riding for the NDP. Dion has little populist appeal and Layton's recent emphasis on economic populism should go over well in this very working class riding. The NDP has also nominated Malcolm Allen, a trade unionist who should go over much better in this riding than the previous candidate who had little to say about labour reforms.

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