Prediction Changed
3:35 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

York Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Baily, Kurtis
Dryden, Ken
Frei, Rosemary
Wilner, Rochelle

Hon. Ken Dryden

2006 Result:
Ken Dryden **
Michael Mostyn
Marco Iacampo
Constantine Kritsonis

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 E.B.
I live near the centre of this riding. Walking around, I see far more Ken Dryden signs than any others, and of the others there seem to be about as many Green signs as Conservative. I have barely seen any NDP signs. Ken Dryden isn't putting any real effort into this riding because he's going to win it easily. No new lawn signs have been made. His campaign is giving people the 2006 lawn signs, with just a piece of red tape covering ‘Paul Martin’ in ‘Paul Martin's Liberals’.
The Conservative vote is higher than in most other Toronto ridings, but the non-Conservative vote would have to divide roughly equally between the NDP, Greens and Liberals before you'd see a Conservative win here. Maybe after Ken Dryden leaves, things could get more volatile, but not until then.
08 09 22 Vote Bob Rae
Who cares if someone from Bnai Brith is running for the Tories? Anybody who knows anything about the politics of the Jewish organizations knows that it's a one-man show of the ultraconservative Frank Dimant. They do not appeal to anyone outside of the rightwing of the Jewish community. Meanwhile Ken Dryden is very popular and had a good stint in Cabinet. Wilner has only a few signs up and Dryden is killing her sign wise both east and west of Dufferin. Dryden will have one of the best showings for the Liberals in the country.
08 09 20 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
A ridiculous notion if there ever was one! The MMP is to blame and they're going to take it out on the FEDERAL Liberals. Not to mention a popular, well respected, potential cab min star candidate in a lefty-ish riding. Some people are just delusional.
08 09 20 Matt M
This is one of the few, perhaps the only seat the Tories will win in the GTA. The citizens are downright angry with Liberal MPP Monte Kwinter's complicitness in the propane facility being put there. He took away the rights of municipalities to keep these things away from houses regardless of the zoning of the area. The Liberal brand is severely tarnished here, and like a previous commenter stated, Dryden's ‘missing in action’ status hasn't gone over lightly.
08 09 14 MH
Ken Dryden, with ample name recognition, should keep this seat without difficulty, whatever happens outside Toronto. Sensible Conservatives are not wasting their energy on seats like this. The margin of victory for Dryden in 2006, though slightly smaller than in 2004, was very large: roughly 10,000 votes (42,000+ votes were cast). There are easier pickings for the Conservatives outside Metro.
08 09 13 Happy Warrior
When the Sunrise propane explosion happened the community held a big meeting. There were 600 people jammed into the St Norbert's church. Another 800 people showed up at montecassino place to let off steam and demand answers. Premier McGuinty was in Beijing, Mayor David Miller was in Vancouver and Ken Dryden was in Newfoundland at a dinner.
The Conservative candidate was at the meeting and duly recognized as such.
Dryden's long pattern of being absent during the writ will only remind people of his invisiblity when they needed him.
During the last provincial election the Conservative vote was on the rise.
And one more thing the Conservative candidate is the past president of B'nai Brith. 20% of the riding is Jewish.
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
Dryden will be able to keep the puck in the opposition zone with his attacks on the left wing of the other team. With a strong breakaway on environmental issues, and a solid defense on the economics, Dryden can easily score a slap shot on e-day. He can stickhandle his way out of tight situations, and with 22468 points from the last game, he could shut out the Tories here. Add a few corny hockey analogies, and you have a Liberal Victory.
07 05 02 Stevo
Ken Dryden's vitriolic attacks on Stephen Harper go over well in this north Toronto riding, even if they send voters running away from the Liberals in other, more competitive ridings. This seat goes Red again with little difficulty, Conservative support among the orthodox Jewish constituency notwithstanding.
07 04 15 King of Kensington
While the Conservatives did get 30% here last time, unlike ridings like Don Valley West or Etobicoke, they've pretty much maxed out their level of support in this riding due to their strong showing in the Orthodox Jewish areas.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
Despite being one of the safest Liberal ridings in Toronto historically, this was actually one of the Tories best showings in Toronto being one of only five ridings where they got over 30% (Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Etobicoke Centre, and Etobicoke-Lakeshore were the other four), still this remains a very safe Liberal riding and Ken Dryden is generally well liked despite his poor showing in the Liberal leadership race, so I expect him to win easily, although probably not as massively as Judy Sgro in neighbouring York West as this riding is more middle class than working class.
07 04 06 A.S.
Like Davenport, York Centre's been knocked down a number of notches since its ?safest Liberal seat? status in the 80s and 90s--but if the NOW-reading Laytonian NDP Socialists are to blame in Davenport, the Post-reading Asperian Conservative Zionists are to blame here. However, once you get beyond the ultra-orthodox enclaves of Wilson Heights, there's little real room for Tory growth; and the Downsview half of the riding's more likely to swing NDP if it swings away from Liberal, anyway. Besides, if things *do* start looking vaguely dire, just remind the voters of who Ken Dryden is...
07 03 26 St. Paul's Progressive
To state the obvious, this riding will definitely stay Liberal as it is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. In fact I think Ken Dryden may buck the trend and increase his level of support even if Liberal support stays the same or drops. While he didn't have much support as leadership candidate he did gain a higher profile and came across very well at the convention. And he is quite passionate and effective in taking on Harper.

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