Prediction Changed
3:34 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Dewar, John
New Democratic
Gerl, Sylvia
Christian Heritage
Gunn, Vicki
Moses, Judith
Progressive Canadian
Pisani, Paul
Van Loan, Peter

Hon. Peter Van Loan

2006 Result:
Peter Van Loan **
Kate Wilson
Sylvia Gerl
John Dewar
Vicki Gunn

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 07 Jeff Cornelius
Considering the Liberal candidate was hand-picked and parachuted in, I expected her to be stronger in debate, more enthusiastic, and have a well-funded and large team of volunteers. But it appears her campaign is flat all around. Even with a strong campaign I expected she might lose, although I was interested to see if a competent challenge could be mounted. But clearly, there will be no competition and Van Loan will handily take the riding. The best opponent in this campaign has been John Dewar of the Green Party, and in such a strong Conservative riding he has little hope of a win. His talents would be put to better use at the national party level, rather than contesting a seat.
08 10 06 R.O.
An update been a Rather quiet race in york simcoe this election and think fact Peter Van Loan won in last 2 elections is why. He seems to be fairly popular in this riding and his increased profile in Ottawa is likely to help. The other candidates here seem to be having little impact in the riding. I passed thru here a week or so ago and mostly only saw conservative signs on private property. Opposition parties were limited to street corners and such. The riding is growing a bit as some towns like Bradford have more homes and voters than previous years but riding is still mostly the same and Peter Van Loan looks to have the advantage here.
07 11 28 R.O.
Well its no doubt that Mcguinty’s arguing with Ottawa is intended to cause trouble for conservative mp’s. but we need to look at the facts here , first Peter Van Loan is running in york-simcoe a riding made up of the 4 townships between barrie and newmarket. Second he easily won this riding in 04 and 06 and liberals ran same candidate Kate Wilson both times. She is not running again and liberal nomination was handed to Judith Moses who is not even from riding. Third he is now in cabinet and a higher profile mp than he was before all equals conservative hold.
07 11 25 MH
Given Mr. Van Loan's recent contemptuous comments on Mr. McGuinty's effort to get a fair deal for Ontario (read the 905 belt) where Parliamentary seats are concerned, I wonder if he is quite as safe as earlier contributors think. In apparently writing off Ontario, the Conservatives may also be writing off Mr. Van Loan.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
On the very edge of the GTA, this riding is now mainly made up of people who want to be close to the city, but don't want to actually live in the city. This demographic generally tends to go for parties on the right. Although they are few exurbs in Canada, they are quite common in the US such as Eastern Long Island and Orange County, New York and those areas generally go Republican. Here in Canada, the trend seems to be similiar as once you get out of the more urban parts of the 905 belt, the Conservatives start winning by larger margins.
07 03 27 Angry Ontarian
Chalk this one up for Stephen Harper and Peter Van Loan. Safe Conservative riding + Cabinet portfolio = huge CPC win.
07 03 24 RF
With Peter Van Loan becoming a Cabinet Minister, and his incumbency, this should be an easy riding for him. This riding is also made mostly of WASP voters, and it is a rural riding - perfect for a CPC landslide. Watch for 50%+ in this riding.

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