Prediction Changed
11:13 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

York South-Weston
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Cocelli, Aydin
Papadimitriou, Andre
New Democratic
Sullivan, Mike
Tonks, Alan

Alan Tonks

2006 Result:
Alan Tonks **
Paul Ferreira
Steve Halicki
Maria De Angelis-Pater
Dragan Cimesa

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 06 Lanny
Although they probably don't deserve it, I think the Liberals win this seat. I just finished watching Goldhawk live, and Tonks couldn't even make it out to a live TV debate forum to answer questions from his constituents? Tonks has been very disappointing in his representation of this riding, but the reality is that this is probably a safe Liberal seat (what a shame).
Surging NDP support along with declining Liberal support should benefit the NDP to some extent. Alan Tonks has been the MP for quite some time, so he has the incumbant advantage, but the provincial by-election in 2007 (won by the NDP's Paul Ferreira) shows that the NDP can compete in this riding. And since the Conservatives don't do well historically, those soft NDP voters prone to voting Liberal for strategic reasons don't have that concern in this riding.
My prediction:
Liberals - 44%
NDP - 31%
Conservatives - 16%
Green - 9%
08 09 24 MH
YS-W has gone Liberal in every election since 1976, when the riding was created, except for one: in 1997 John Nunziata, who had first won it as a Liberal, ran successfully as an independent. That episode ended in 2000, when Alan Tonks beat him narrowly. The Conservatives have come within hailing distance of victory only twice, in 1979, when Joe Clark was PC leader, and in 1984, the year of the Brian Mulroney landslide. Since then the forces of the right have been weak, weak, weak. It would require a seismic political shift for this riding to go anything but Liberal, and at present there is no evidence of any such shift. Tonks is a lock.
08 09 02 Paul Christie
Anybody who thinks that Alan Tonks could lose here is dreaming in techicolour. He is incredibly popular in what is likely the most Liberal ridings in the city (maybe the country). Mark this one up as a certainty!
08 03 29 binriso
No chance for anyone else, not to mention Tonks is more on the right of his party or at least more so than many of the Liberal MPs. That fact probably weakens the CPC vote and the fact that Paul Ferreira isn?t running here again hurts the NDP vote. Not to mention, no more sponsorship scandal being a big issue. This probably means that Tonks is headed to a somewhat bigger victory here or at least a similar margin.
One other thing is that the PCs got a far lower percentage provincially here after Cordiano retired, barely winning 10%.
08 03 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Wow...what a load of crock! We suppose that if you're supporting a particular party you should be optimistic but that was just plain lunacy. Seriously, comparing a narrow provincial byelection victory (by the NDP no less...which they lost in the subsequent general election) in an open seat, to a challenge by a CPC neophyte to a sitting LIberal incumbent (and over 15K vote gap) in a working class (again)...that is special! Alright, to be fair, maybe you're new at this, so allow us to explain: byelections are often a poor indication of true voter sentiment as turnout is often very low and often only the committed opposition comes out in force. Second, when that same riding reverts back to their political roots in the general election, then that is an indication that the byelection win was an abnormality rather than any true indication of overwhelming voter discord. Now for the NDp to make a surprise win in a working class riding, is not that much of a big deal. That does not mean you can equate a similar CPC win in a federal election. No sir, this is a solid Liberal riding and Tonks will win it solidly again.
08 03 01 Mike Adams
The last two Provincial elections in this riding are a symbol of how things have changed in this riding. After Liberal Joe Cordiano resigned, the NDP candidate bridged the 13,500 vote difference and won the by-election by three hundred votes. In the general election that followed the grits put more effort and pulled off a 400 vote victory. What happened to those 10,000 votes?
The federal NDP candidate is the head of Weston Community Association fighting the rail link to the airport. It will run through the riding with great frequency When the Liberals were in power the community rallied 2,000 people to a meeting at which it was revealed that MP Alan Tonks the grit incumbent was briefed about the impacts by the Transport Minster Collinette but didn't warn his community. Mike Sullivan will be a strong NDP candidate and strip away votes from Tonks' left flank.
The Conservatives have a young candidate named Jake Karns who has gotten some media profile for fighting th the expansion of the local transfer station with the local City Councillor. 3,000 people have signed petitions etc and Karns lead the fight on the internet with a web based campaign.
Karns was seen on CTV News handing out cards with two pennies on them reminding his working class voters that the Conservatives are cutting the GST by two cents on the dollar.
The point is that conservative tax cuts play well in a riding that has strong working class roots and shifting demographic of new Portuguese and Caribbean immigrants and an Italian-Canadian merchant class. The Conservatives have never had a candidate work this hard and smart prior to a a writ being dropped.
If the conservative candidate who is a CMA can run a credible campaign the Conservatives can win here....
07 10 27 binriso
I highly doubt that Ferreira will come close to winning if he runs again, lets not forget hes already ran twice and his highest result was barely over 20%. Alan Tonks almost beat Bob Rae in the 1987 election here, he is probably equally as popular if not moreso than Ferreira. Not to mention the Liberals own this riding except for Nunziata winning it as an Independent Liberal essentially. Id say that something like: Tonks 50-55%, Ferreira 25-30%, CPC 15-20%, GRN+OTH 5-7%.
Thats probably a conservative estimate for Tonks on my part, since he'll probably have an even bigger margin than 25%.
07 10 08 Justicialist
If Paul Ferreira losses the provincial election, he probably will contest the next federal one and has a great possibility of winning. He is very popular in York South!
07 04 15 A.S.
Well, at least the provincial byelection proves the NDP's still got clout in its bygone holy land (and that Paul Ferreira's last two fed runs weren't exactly abject wastes of time). So, there's the ghost of an interesting race against Tonks here, faint as it is...and unfortunately, it could be muffled if not cancelled out by the proxy effect of an impending Gerard Kennedy love-in south of here. Besides, as recent federal and provincial general elections have shown, the actual anti-Grit picture in YSW is more of a split (as it was vs John Nunziata in '84 and '88, for that matter). While his mandate might sink below 50% (or, Lord save us, 40%), Tonks is still favoured to win--and forewarned, Dippers: if NDP surges to pick this one up, plus Davenport and a Peggy Nash hold, it might mean a handful of 416 Tory pickups as well...
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This may have gone NDP provincially as a protest over the minimum wage, but federally this is a safe Liberal riding and considering only the Liberals can knock off the Tories, who are despised here, Alan Tonks should easily be re-elected, despite the fact he is one of the more right wing Liberal MPs.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster