Prediction Changed
11:32 PM 03/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Hrynkow, Chris
New Democratic
Maloway, Jim
Penner, Wes
Christian Heritage
Scott, Robert
Steen, Thomas

Hon. Bill Blaikie

2006 Result:
Bill Blaikie **
Linda West
Tanya Parks
Tanja Hutter
Robert Scott

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 02 bj
I've lived in the riding for 15 years, and there are more Conservative signs in my neighbourhood than any previous election, but it won't be enough to turf the NDP. This riding has some conservative pockets in East Kildonan, Elmwood and the new subdivisions in Transcona, but Transcona and Elmwood historically vote predominately NDP. This combined with a Liberal candidate who looks like he's approaching you for spare change will result in an easy NDP hold.
08 09 30 RLB
I can't understand why this one is ‘too close to call’, when a far tighter race in Winnipeg South has been called already. Maloway is mopping the floor with Steen. This one won't even be close.
08 09 29 wheat king
I think there is an overwhelming consensus among those who live in Manitoba that this should be called for the NDP. I know signs aren't an absolute indicator of political fortunes, but Maloway signs dominate this riding, with the Steen signs few and far betwee. Steen sounds like kind of an idiot, refusing to participate in some local debates, and although he may narrow the gap between the last election, he simply won't convince enough former Blaikie voters to make that giant leap across the spectrum. I see the demographics in the riding are changing, and perhaps in the distant future the Conservatives can pick this up, but that is a long way off as of now.
08 09 28 Griz
This is turning out to not be a contest. Motivated NDP candidate, Conservative candidate running on name recognition below. Closer since Blaikie left, but still a NDP hold.
08 09 26 KRPS
I can see how the Tories might do better, given that they're not up against Blaikie. But they're still up against a well-known and popular New Democrat in Maloway, and the Liberal vote (as small as it is) will likely drift toward the NDP. I think the Tory candidate is really a big question mark too. It may have seemed a good idea at the time to nominate Steen, but given he doesn't live in the riding and can't be trusted at public debates, how exactly is he going to beat Maloway?
08 09 26 Chriswpg
It would be quite the upset if the Conservatives pull off a win here. However, this is a NDP stronghold for quite some time. If I'm not mistaken provincially as well.(Don't quote me on that) Thomas Steen may win some new support but I don't think it will be enough to turn this riding tory blue. So, I'll say it stays in the NDP column.
08 09 26 reader
I'm not sure how this can be TCTC. Easy NDP hold for the following reasons:
1. It's Transcona. Although maybe some of the outer areas are going for other parties, it's still a pretty safe NDP area.
2. The candidates. Maloway is an experienced (although eternal backbench) MLA who has represented Elmwood since before the fall of the Pawley government, winning over 60% of the vote in the last three provincial elections (although there are admittedly probably some Doer Democrats who vote Liberal federally). Steen is a former hockey player who doesn't live in the riding and his refusal to go into debates really won't help endear him to residents.
3. The other ridings. Winnipeg North and Centre are safe for the NDP, while they are running 3rd and they know it in every other riding except for Churchill, which is a pretty far drive up north. If they think there is even a possibility they might be in any trouble every NDPer in Winnipeg will flock to Transcona to campaign. The Conservatives might be a bit more spread out, as they seem to be really going for St. B, Kennerd seems to be seriously trying to unseat Neville, and there is a chance they might have to play a little defense in Winnipeg South
So, yes, the NDP might lose a few votes due to Blaikie's retirement, but they will still comfortable hold the riding.
08 09 23 Matt
If the Conservatives were running a strong candidate, this riding would be more in play. Jim Malloway is popular enough in the area to keep this riding NDP.
08 09 22 RedRiver
With the conservatives running a very weak candidate who's only appeal is that he can play hockey, and the NDP filling the slot vacated by the loved Blaikie with a solid and intelligent if not overly charismatic Jim Malloway, this one will go to the NDP. I would go so far as to say this is so uncontroversial a claim as to warrant, when added to the growing consensus on this page, that this riding be declared safe NDP territory.
08 09 21 M
Thomas Steen has refused to enter any debates. He refused to enter debates at schools, at the United Church, etc...this can only hurt someone who needs to prove that he is more than a name. Thomas Steen's refusal to enter debates will hurt him over time here. NDP hold.
08 09 20 Rich
Jim Maloway should win fairly easily here. He's extremely popular in Elmwood and he should hold his own in middle class East Kildonan and more working class Transcona. His stance on the Disraeli bridge proposals raised his profile and likely endeared himself to many residents in the riding. Thomas Steen is a laughably bad candidate and the Liberals are running a sacrificial lamb by the name of Wes Penner. Comfortable NDP hold here.
08 09 20 Political Observer
I agree that this will be a closer race than last time. Factors that will tighten the race include:
1. Thomas Steen - no question that he will get some votes strictly from name recognition. Also, his humble manner will not hurt his cause.
2. No Bill Blaikie. There is no doubt that Mr. Blaikie attracted some votes to him personally that would not have gone to the NDP.
3. Increased vote splitting on the left. The Green party will likely improve their showing this time and the NDP will be hurt for it.
4. Growth in suburbia around Transcona where the residents in these new developments likely be more inclined than people in ‘Old Transcona’ to vote for a party other than NDP.
That all said, the NDP will still take the riding - their grip is just too firm. The margin will be narrower but NDP will win.
08 09 18 non-partisan observer
I don't see how parachuting a former hockey player will help much in this riding. While it is true that some higher income developments have gone up since the last election, that does not automatically translate into Tory votes: if it did, the province as a whole would have gone Tory last time. And another thing: the Provincial leader's promise to bring back the Jets is widely regarded as the reason he lost the provincial election.
This seat, and other NDP strongholds, will benefit from the highly popular provincial government and the healthy local economy (our GDP growth us with Saskatchewan at the top of the list.)
08 09 16 DB
This riding will be very close. The Conservatives have been peppering the mailboxes with adds in the last year in the riding. The gaps between the NDP and the Conservatives have been getting tighter in the riding over the past few elections, they will probably steal some of the Blaikie vote, and more wealthier people have moved into the area. Even so, NDP should still be able to squeak this one out with their candidate.
08 09 16 III
I was not suspecting that the CPC could ever win this riding. But check out Saskatchewan. There was a day when those folks played banjos, farmed mud, and voted NDP. Now they may not win a seat there. Could the same thing happen here? If so, the first place it would show up is in Elmwood-Transcona.
08 09 15 Stevo
Giant Political Moose: How can you say that Blaikie got ‘huge’ numbers? look at the results from the last election. It was certainly a considerable win with just over 50% of the vote, but it wasn't a crushing landslide by any means. Assuming the Conservative candidate can keep nearly all of her voters from 2006 (a fair assumption, given that the Tories are polling near 60% in Sask/Man), and assuming that the NDP numbers were inflated due to Blaikie's popularity (this is obvious), she only needs to pick off 3000-4000 Blaikie voters to win. This is very doable, especially a riding like this where the demographics are similar to those in Oshawa (and we all know how that riding has gone).
08 09 14 Giant Political Mouse
This is an area of Winnipeg that has been represented Federally and Provincially by the NDP for decades. Blakie was well known, sure, but that only meant he got huge numbers rather than just a respectable win. If the NDP lose this seat they are headed for a wipeout and that just isn't in the cards. Total NDP hold (maybe a slight reduction in win percentage).
08 09 14 PB
I can see from the numbers, and the fact that Blaikie isn't running again, why this is listed too close to call, but it isn't. The Tory result from last time probably represents close to their ceiling - they don't have much room to grow. Maloway is a good safe choice for the NDP. The only time Blaikie was seriously tested, in 1993, Maloway was key in delivering the Elmwood portion of the riding. The folks in Elmwood are used to voting for him, and shouldn't have any problem sending him to Ottawa. Also, expect the NDP to make much of the fact the Steen does not live in the riding.
08 09 12 Kit A
I think another factor in this riding that signifies that the CPC won't make a breakthrough is that Linda West was a far greater campaigner last time for the CPC and still had little impact on the result. This time, the more Thomas Steen gets out there, the harder it will be for folks to see him as a serious candidate who can articulate the concerns of local voters. It will be a narrower margin, but very doubtful that it could go CPC. (It is too bad that Rebecca Blaikie did not run. She would have been the perfect candidate.) The CPC has a higher chance of picking up St B or Winnipeg South Centre than this riding.
08 09 12 Mike
TCTC is official - the Free Press survey of its ‘Insiders’ has a close result in Elmwood-Transcona between NDP and Conservatives. But, Steen is still untested so I'm going to predict that once he is vetted publicly, his support will drop off.
Keep this TCTC and monitor. things will chance here.
PS: CPAC is going to profile this riding soon. Should be very instructive.
08 09 09 Al
TCTC - This will go down to the very wire on election night. The NDP is very strong in Manitoba provincially and are certain to siphon some votes from the Liberals in this riding. But, most of all, it will come down to how well the Conservatives do nationally. If they really do hit that 40% mark, enough votes will go the the CPC and result in a victory.
It is likely that all votes that went to the CPC in 2006 will stay with them this time, 500 votes go from Liberal to NDP and 1000 votes go Liberal to CPC... then it's a done deal.
I'm not saying the Libs can't pull this riding off in the end, but it is definitely TCTC.
08 09 09 Brian
Thomas Steen will certainly have name recognition but if the news item from Global News last night is any indication, he isn't really up on local issues. The closing of the Disraeli Bridge for repair is a major issue for the constituency, something Jim Malloway has been very vocal about. Thomas Steen's view of all this? Well, he could barely mumble a 'No comment' about it.
This will remain in the NDP category and I have no idea why it's considered too close to call.
08 09 08 M
The Greens are running a pretty good candidate here. He's not going to win at all - not even close - but Chris Hrynkow will pull some votes to the Greens.
The next question is from whom will the Greens pull votes...I am not convinced that the Greens draw from the Dippers. They will take votes from all over the spectrum and from previous non-voters. So, will there be an impact here? Tough to say.
08 09 08 Stevo
The Conservatives have had former professional athletes (or close relatives of VERY famous athletes) run for them before in apparently winnable ridings, and they have almost always lost. I don't see the candidacy of a former Jets player to add much to Conservative fortunes here. Oh he may still win, since it is not at all a stretch to think that some of Bill Blaikie's supporters would turn Conservative rather than Liberal, but it would be part of a larger trend in Manitoba rather than his fame putting him over the top.
08 09 08 Al
Thomas Steen running in this election will turn out to make this riding a close one to watch and potential CPC surprise.
1) Bill Blakie is not running and he always attracted voters who would normally vote Liberal or even Conservative
2) Green Party support has risen tremendously and will eat away from NDP voters
3) Many previous Liberal voters will turn Conservative due to the candidacy of Thomas Steen.
This will be close, and definitely not a guarantee for the NDP.
08 09 07
It is true that Bill Blaikie has retired but he did it on a good note. Jim Malloway is moving up from the provincial scene and should be able to keep this for the NDP. The CPC has Thomas Steen the retired Jets player. While this might attract some folks, it won't attract others. Especially some who dislike all this Bring Back the Jets business which turned many voters off the Conservatives in the last provincial election. Expect to see higher support for the CPC but with the NDP holding this riding. The riding is still a strong working class neighbourhood with strong links to the union-side of the NDP.
08 09 06 Don Street
Thomas Steen is running! And Bobby Hull is the campaign manager! This shows just what the Conservatives think of the people of Transcona.
At the same time, the NDP seems to have an under-whelming candidate in Jim Malloway.
Keep this one too close to call and watch for goofy moments in the weeks to come.
08 08 18 ajm79
I live in this riding and I was born the year Bill Blaikie first won. I resent the suggestion about working class voters being ‘manipulated’ into anything. Working class doesn't mean stupid. It wasn't the working class who put this current brilliant government in office, was it? This riding has been one of the safest for the NDP, not only federally but provincially as well. Rumour has it that MLA Jim Maloway will run for the NDP, and he's represented this riding provincially for as long as I can remember. He would have no problem holding this seat for the NDP. Neither would an orange and green rock, I suspect.
08 05 31 T.V.
For the first time in many years, voters in the riding who have voted for Bill Blaikie will have to look at voting for parties instead. While other parties (the Liberals in particular) will see a big jump, the strong organization built up over many elections by the NDP will likely keep the riding for them.
07 06 26 Stevo
Binriso's weird rant about Mike Harris in this thread of a Manitoba riding was quite amusing, as was his apparent belief that working-class adults are stupid enough to be ?manipulated? en masse. Elmwood-Transcona is ripe for Oshawa-fi-cation - don't discount this riding going Tory should someone of binriso's attitudes run under the NDP banner.
07 06 08 binriso
Id have to say that the NDP will win again here. Buoyed by the provincial NDP's success in Winnipeg and the fact that the Manitoba PC's got owned in Winnipeg during the election all signs point to a NDP hold. Although the working class can be manipulated into voting Conservative, against logic, as we can see with Mike Harris in 1995. Instead of taking a couple weeks of unpaid vacation to pay for our finances, we are just going to cut a crapload of jobs and other services. (20 000 jobs cut, various hospitals closed and funding cuts everywhere, at least we got a tax cut of a few hundred bucks but we dont have a hospital in our town or jobs anymore or good unemployement insurance to make up for that, the teachers are on strike and god knows what else.) I bet alot of them regretted voting for him now. This should stay NDP. Hopefully anyways....
07 05 19 A.S.
It's true that the Blaikie factor has, in ‘Doer Democrat’ fashion, artificially depressed the fed Liberal vote in recent elections (just compare Liberal results in the rest of Winnipeg; also cf. how Ed Schreyer cratered the Selkirk-Interlake Grit vote in '06). Therefore, by default, the Liberals are the most likely beneficiaries in a post-Blaikie era--but, win? Given the hurdles they have to jump, it'd have to take Gary Doer pulling a Bob or Ujjal and going Federal Grit. And as for older/wealthier, the Dippers seem to suit those affluent Annex and Riverdale greybeards just fine, so why not here. Oh, monitor that Tory vote carefully, given the result last time--at least in case of a 3-way...
07 05 10 Incisive Logic
Easy NDP win here, no matter who they run. Blaikie won a majority last election. The Conservatives were a distant second, and the Liberals won a mere 4,100 votes. I assume that most liberal voters voted for the candidate, and only die-hard Liberals voted Liberal. Without Blaikie, the NDP will inevitably bleed a few votes, but not to the Conservatives. And the Liberals have nothing to lose to begin with. Conservative votes would need to come entirely from increased turnout, and much of that is probably dormant Liberal vote. The dynamics will certainly change in this riding without Blaikie, but it will still go NDP.
07 05 13 Observer
This riding has changed a lot since Blaikie was first elected. It is wealthier and older now. The Liberals have not run a solid campaign in the riding since 1993, but now they will again. If they have a good candidate, they will dedicate a lot of resources there and probably win.
07 04 09 Stevo
Working-class inner-suburban...sort of like Oshawa, eh? Granted, Oshawa isn't inner, but is a large town in and of itself. And Oshawa also has a strong Liberal presence to split the left-wing vote, whereas Elmwood-Transcona - as in much of Manitoba and Saskatchewan - is a fight between the NDP and the Tories, with the Liberals a distant, almost insignificant third.
I believe this riding will be decided on the kind of candidate the NDP finds. If they run another down-to-earth, not overly partisan, do-gooder like Bill Blaikie, the NDP will win. In other words, they need an Ed Broadbent New Democrat. If, however, they decide to run an overly pro-union champagne socialist *a la* Jack Layton and David Miller who spends the campaign shaking his/her fist at Stephen Harper and going on about Kyoto, the Conservatives will surprise everyone by picking up this seat. I will assume that the powers that be in Jack Layton's office are well aware of this, and will be looking hard for another friendly & folksy chap like Blaikie, so as a result I will give the definite edge to the New Democrats. But this is one to watch.
07 04 08 free_thinker
This is a tough one. Since Blaikie has been there for 30 years, it’s hard to tell if this is an NDP riding or a Bill Blaikie riding. With that said, I give the NDP a leg up because of the organization that is has. However, if you note the vote totals from last time - some of Blaikies support goes Liberal, a very small portion Conservative and most will stay NDP. If the NDP can limit its losses to 4000 it should be able to hold it. Anything more than 4000 vote loss by the NDP will result in a Conservative pick up due to vote splitting. For the time being this should be to close to call - but look for a harder prediction closer to election day.
07 04 03 St. Paul's Progressive
Bill Blaikie is a highly respected MP and it is unfortunate to hear he is retiring. But this riding should stay NDP. This is after all, working class inner-suburban Winnipeg, an NDP stronghold.
07 03 31 Rey D.R.
I have to disagree with everyone's posting here so far... since Bill Blaikie has held the riding for almost the last 30 yrs, its hard to tell whether it was his personal popularity or the NDP popularity that kept him in office.
Now we all know that that Bill Blaikie is one of the most respected and personally popular MPs in Canada and that the Northside of Winnipeg is considered to be a very safe NDP area. The area now comprising Elmwood-Transcona voted NDP long before Mr. Blaikie arrived. However since, Mr. Blaikie has been there for almost 30 yrs. I think its simply too hard to gauge how much of that support was personal popularity and how much of that was party affiliation.
I have to agree with DL, this seems like the kind of seat where every NDPer in Winnipeg would be lining up to take a crack. But until that person is nominated and until we get close to an election I think its remains TCTC, with the NDP with a significant edge.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
With Bill Blaikie not running again, this riding is not quite as safe as it was with him. He was extremely popular and gained many votes for his personal appeal as opposed to his party. Still this is generally an NDP area and unless the Liberals run a really strong candidate, the NDP should hold it. If the Liberals run a really strong candidate, they could either take it or allow the Conservatives to slip up the middle (they got 32% last time around so a few percentage points here and a three way split could do it). Still I am 80% sure it will stay NDP.
07 03 29 C B
I humbly disagree with previous predictions here. This is a riding that for 30 years or so voted for Bill Blaikie, not the NDP. If the Tories run Linda West again, she will probably win with vote splitting on the left, particularly now that the Tories are in majority territory. This one should at the very least be too close to call, however, I think many will be shocked when it falls to the Conservatives.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
Bill Blaikie has announced he is stepping aside and not running after 30 or so years in parliament. While it almost certainly means the NDP is going to drop in vote here, I dont think it will add up to a defeat. Provincially these areas have been fairly left-wing, even when the tories win government. the NDP will be able to take much of the vote here, especially if Blaikie takes an active role supporting his successor. I would not be surprised to see some vote bleed towards the Liberals and Conservatives, but I would be surprised if the NDP did not win this one.
07 03 25 DL
Another supersafe NDP seat. Blaikie is retiring and just about every prominent New Democrat in Winnipeg is thinking of taking a shot at the nomination since the only real race will be for the NDP nomination.
07 03 20 JFBreton
Le vote néo-démocrate est grugé par le vote vert dans de nombreuses régions du pays. Ceci dit, si un comté doit demeurer néo-démocrate au Manitoba, c'est bien le comté de Blaikie. Victoire du NPD sans trop de problèmes ici.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster