Prediction Changed
10:37 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Gibson, Janine
Hiebert, Shirley
New Democratic
Martin, Ross
Christian Heritage
Reimer, David
Toews, Vic

Hon. Vic Toews

2006 Result:
Vic Toews **
Wes Penner
Patrick O'Connor
Janine G. Gibson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 28 Mike
Still going to Toews, but the scandal has hit the paper in Steinbach. Expect a big backlash, but not enough to unseat Toews.
08 09 27
This riding is a classic case in support of proportional representation. The dominance of the bible belt voters to block out sex scandals including Vic Toews fathering a child of a woman in his office, voting irregularities where he misrepresented how much he spent on his provincial campaigns, in such a small riding the gossip will hurt his campaign and I except to see a surge in the Christian Heritage's party's votes. Aside from that most of the other voters stay home on election nights knowing the inevitability that Conservatives will win this riding, as the historically always have aside from when the right vote split in the 90s. Vic Toews should win this riding and will probably quickly move on to his appointment as a justice of Manitoba's Court of Queen's Bench.
08 09 26 daniel
Although Toews will win big, it won't be quite as big as last time. Watch for how many votes the Christian Heritage Party gets in protest of Toews's personal foibles.
08 09 26 Local observer
Today's Winnipeg Free Press Survey shows Maloway with a stong lead in this riding. Lawn signs bear this out.
08 02 10 A.S.
Provencher encompasses Mennonite Bible Belt heartland, but it also encompasses Metis heartland...and it's the latter which explains Iftody's seemingly inexplicable 90s Liberal victories. But now, in what's become a familiar rural Prairie pattern, CPC has sewn *everything* up. And like Jake Epp before him, Vic Toews is, in his way, as much a national-scene cabinet pragmatist as he's a right-winger...which might even be enough to secure some of the moderates he'd otherwise scare away. (How else would he have more than quadrupled the vote of his nearest opponent?)
07 10 01 binriso
Hard to believe its only been 7 years since Iftody and the Liberals held this riding. Toews won solidly in 2000 and massively both times since then. But it is true, since 1957 the only time the Liberals won was in 1968 Trudeaumania and 1993 and 1997. CPC probably win by over 50% ahead of 2nd place next time because Toews is popular here too in addition to being a prominent MP.
07 09 19 Nick J Boragina
George Etienne Cartier's old riding. In the 17 elections since 1957, the Conservatives won 14 of them. With a strong candidate here in the way of Mr.Towes the victory is all but assured.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Vic Toews is a right wing ideologue who scares away a lot of moderate voters, but while that hurts the party elsewhere, it seems to help here. This riding has a very large religious community who seem to like his hard right stance even if most parts of the country don't.
07 03 28 Angry Ontarian
Vic Toews won massively last time in this safe Tory riding. Add a Cabinet portfolio to his name, and increase his margin of victory for next time. CPC hold.

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