Prediction Changed
10:32 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Saint Boniface
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Glover, Shelly
Christian Heritage
Gregoire, Justin
Payette, Marc
New Democratic
Schaubroeck, Matt
Simard, Raymond

Hon. Raymond Simard

2006 Result:
Raymond Simard **
Ken Cooper
Mathieu Allard
Marc Payette
Jane MacDiarmid

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 J.J.
This one will be close. Despite polls showing the Conservatives running away with it, the fact remains that this riding has a solid history of voting Liberal. I agree with those that say Conservative turnout will be an important factor. From what I've heard, it's pretty motivated. Glover is canvassing more and more in the old St. Boniface part of the riding which is Simard country. An indicator that her support has broadened?
08 10 10 Daniel
Just biked through a broad swath of the riding. From what I say Simard's got an edge on signs. He's a reasonably well-liked incumbent, and I think he will keep it.
The only thing that might derail this is the NDP vote. Contrary to what some have said, the NDP candidate is very good. He actually made a race of it in Tuxedo in the last provincial election. The NDP certainly won't win this race, but they could hand it to the conservatives.
08 10 04 yuri
No Question this riding is staying Liberal. A weak NDP campaign is also going to help the Liberals. Shelly Glover has also been busy burning bridges in the conservative party which is coming back to bite her. Glover is not personable.
08 09 30 Progressive Conservative
It is my observation that the Conservative signs all went up at once, right at the beginning of the campaign. This is due to the fact that Ms. Glover has been canvassing the area for nearly two years. She seems to have targetted her supporters well in advance of the election call. In fact, there were a considerable number of her signs up the morning of the election call.
Since then, the growth seems to have been all been Liberal. Even the wealthy neighbourhoods have a very strong Liberal sign presence. The only area where you see more Conservative signs is along the main thoroughfares. (very interesting)
Also interesting is the complete lack of NDP signs. In the previous election Matthieu Allard had a substantial presence, but Matt Shawbroeck seems to have lost a great deal of it to Mr. Simard. I've seen more Green signs in this election than NDP. One would think, with Elizabeth May's public backing of Stephane Dion, that there is a good chance than many of these Payette supporters may turn around and vote strategically for Mr. Simard.
I'm predicting a Liberal win by 3000 votes. (double the margin of the last election) Another point worth explaining, as mentioned by another poster, when Mr. Harper came to the centre culturel in Saint-Boniface over a year ago, ‘he was not well received’, in fact he was met by a crowd of some 50 or so protesters. Radio-Canada broadcasted the protest live on TV. I have a political sciences professor who attended the conference, and according to him, Mr. Harper was visibly shaken. Apparently he was not prepared to face such adversary and was surprised and thrown off his game by the protest.
08 09 30 Michael
The NDP candidate has started to put up signs, quite a few actually. In fact, in my part of St. Vital, there are now more NDP lawn signs than Liberal ones. The Green candidate is starting to put up signs as well. This means that in a tight race the non-Tory voters aren't trying to vote Liberal to block the Conservatives. There is no rally to stop a Tory majority. The strength of the left here should be even more worrisome to the Liberals than the support for the Conservatives, which is enough of a problem. Harper is now closing in on a majority, and concerns that they've peaked too early are fading - people aren't being scared towards the Liberals. I would suggest calling this riding for Glover, and moving more of the Liberal ridings back to TCTC.
08 09 28 Mike
Everything says that this is going Conservative - signs, polls, newspaper stories. I hate to say it, but the Cons have got this one locked up.
08 09 27 Flatland Man
Unfortunately for Raymon Simard a well liked member of the french community in St. Boniface. The Conservatives have shown great candidate selection in the former police member Shelley Glover is absolutely dominating the sign campaign outside of St. Boniface. And this riding that is having problems with crime is flocking to her campaign, unfortunately there is no way for Simard to counter this campaign, and with the negative leadership ratings in Dion, he will lose this battle. Chalk this up for the Conservatives, never thought I would say that about St. Boniface, in fact it will only be the 4th time in the history of this riding. Stunning work by the Conservatives to dethrone the Liberals here. What will be interesting is to see how they will respond to this in the next election.
08 09 26 Local observer
The Conservative chalenger has opened up a wide lead here, according to the Winnipeg Free Press poll.
08 09 25 Jethro
I would say that this riding is too close to call, but very slight edge to Conservatives.
As someone who has previously studied this riding poll by poll, the results are always very clear. ‘Old’ St. Boniface votes Liberal in very high numbers i.e high turnout and high % Liberal. The southern parts of the riding (Southdale, Island Lakes, etc.) vote Conservative and to a lesser extent NDP, but turnout is much lower.
The key to Conservative win is to make some headway in old st. b (Glover's french will help here), and get higher turnout in south part of riding (natl campaign will play key role here).
Contrary to a couple earlier posts, Simard is not a good MP, has very little visibility in the riding (except in his key french areas). Glover has some strengths, but is not a ‘natural’ politician, hence a close race.
08 09 24 Matt
St. Vital will go Conservative but the riding as a whole will give Simard a narrow win because he speaks French and that's what voters in St. Boniface care about most.
08 09 22 Greg P
The comment about the police union is interesting - yes, they did remove their support from Glover. Did anybody expect a union to support a Conservative, regardless of their background?
Let's be honest, who pays attention to what the union says? Not the general public, not even the union members a fair amount of the time. Really the only people for whom this is an issue is for the political wags who are very tempted to read far too much into it.
08 09 22 reader
I think that despite the Liberals losing the sign war (and probably the vote war) in the southern suburbs, barring any major gaffes, they'll probably be able to hold on (it will still be pretty close) for the following reasons:
1. That Free Press poll is worthless.
2. The NDP doesn't seem to be going for a lot of votes here. Allard seemed to be a decent candidate and he pulled at least a couple thousand more NDP votes than usual for this riding. I've only seen one sign for Schaubroeck so far. In addition, no offense to him, but he seems to be one of the young, sacrificial candidates the NDP throws up last minute where they have no chance in order to appeal to youth, but not give young people the safe seats that the old white guys want. Case in point: he ran in Tuxedo, a PC stronghold on the other side of the city in the last provincial election.
3. Strategic voting. I think it will make a comeback, and this is a prime riding for it.
08 09 22 gd
Latest Free Press poll showed Glover ahead of Simard by 20 points. The poll has its flaws (internet survey of Free Press subscribers is hardly a random sample), but its results for other ridings had all incumbents winning, including Liberal Anita Neville in the riding next door, and the NDP candidate keeping Blaikie's old seat in Transcona. That suggests that the shortcomings in the methodology don't badly skew the results for any particular party. It's also consistent with the overall regional trend, the sign war on the ground, and the other anecdotal tidbits. Call it for CPC.
08 09 20 Rich
Too close to call at the moment, with a slight edge to the Conservatives. The only reason why I think Simard has a chance at retaining is if the NDP vote collapses in this particular riding. Mathieu Allard is not running for the NDP this time around and he got a respectable 9300+ votes in 2006. The NDP's candidate is Matt Schaubroek (I have no idea who he is and I haven't seen a single sign of his yet), so assuming he isn't a serious candidate, enough NDP support could conceivably bleed over to the Liberals to allow Simard to retain.
08 09 18 Swift
From what I have seen the Free Press has not been pro Conservative or pro police over the summer. I must admit that this conclusion is drawn from a small sample of their coverage, but if is representative of the rest, then one would think that the poll would be biased against Glover. Since Conservatives have gained on the Liberals in general in Manitoba it seems likely that the trend will be present in this riding barring definite evidence to the contrary. Another close race with blue winning in the end.
08 09 16 Michael
In many residential parts of St. Vital, there is no sign war. Glover has signs popping up on lawns up and down my street and streets nearby. There is very little evidence that anyone else is running... I was really surprised at how few Liberal signs I've seen - on many blocks there are three to five Conservative signs, and not a single Liberal one.
08 09 15 MG
People need to slow down here..It's pretty clear that a lot of people here aren't following the riding as closely as they might think.
First off, The FreeP poll that came out was ridiculous and you can't base it off that. The poll size was approx. 300 (as previously stated) from an electorate of over 40,000 in that riding. Of course one side will be slanted. The +/- on that was in excess of 15%. Besides, it was only from FreeP subscribers who took the time to log into the website and vote. This is far from being a scientific poll.
Next, it's now public that the Winnipeg Police Association is withdrawing their support from Glover. She was a 15+ year vet of the force and one time spokesperson. If they're withdrawing support you know that it's not a shoe in.
People assume Ken Cooper was a bad candidate and Glover is amazing. That's not the case. Cooper had the business community, an organization to rival any and a core team that's much stronger than Glovers. If you see her in the community I've been told it surrounded with only a few people.
Things are tighter than they might seem. Besides, the bump in the polls that Government's traditionally get after an election is called is waning. The Tories will only continue on with their stream of gaffes and their lack of policy will result inevitably in a slow but steady downturn in public support.
Do not count the Liberals out yet.
08 09 15 Greg P
This one will come down to election night, but will go into the Conservative column. Ray Simard is a backbench MP with no real hope of a cabinet spot in a (theoretical) Dion government. Shelly Glover has (to my mind) a good shot at (at least) P.S. for Justice (I personally think she's too inexperienced to be a Minister of such a high-profile department as Justice, but the optics may help her there). That is something that constituents will take into account.
Also, her police ties will help her as crime is a huge issue in Winnipeg. Her name recognition is high as (beyond her campaigning), she was a spokesperson for the WPS. The Conservative Party itself is doing well both nationally, and in the regional breakouts.
On Simard's side, he has the incumbent boost, an 'anybody but Harper' boost, and seems to be winning the sign war currently (driving around the major streets in the riding, it seemed about 60/40 for Simard)
08 09 13 Paul Martin JR
Conservative pick up… it was close last time, with a candidate how had a phobia of door knocking…
This time Glover has been hitting the doors for almost 2 years! She will take this one, comfortably
08 09 12 Al
Today (Sept 12) the Winnipeg Free Press came out with a poll that shows the CPC having a 12 percentage point lead of the Libs in this riding.
This riding has been a Tory target for quite a while and CPC numbers in Manitoba are very strong.
Mark this one in the CPC column.
08 09 12 eric84
The FreeP had polls from a handful of Winnipeg ridings in today's paper and had the Tories ahead in St. B by 12 points.
08 09 12 Interested Observer
Free Press poll from this morning shows this riding going Conservative. It's not a true random sample, it was a poll of Free Press subscribers, but it was a fairly large sample size (something like 300 voters in the riding). The numbers seem consistent with the close race here last time, and overall Tory strength increasing in Manitoba. Glover looks like she's winning the sign war too.
And the previous poster's comment about anti police sentiment is greatly overstated. There was one bad incident, hardly enough to taint everyone ever connected with the squad.
08 09 11 rlb
Two years ago, someone like Glover would have defeated Simard. However, Glover's biggest drawback is her association with law enforcement. Citizens seem to be very down on the Police after the whole Drunk-Driving cover-up fiasco that dominated the headlines all summer long. Based on this prevailing anti-police sentiment, I suspect that Simard will hang on to the riding one more time.
08 09 09 Chriswpg
This will be quite an interesting race to watch. Ever since I heard Shelley Glover would be the Conservative candidate, I knew she would pose a serious threat to Raymond Simard. In 2004 and 2006, the previous Conservative candidate Ken Cooper had done fairly well. In 2006, coming within less than 1600 votes to Raymond Simard. With crime in the headlines and growing discontent over the lack of progress to curb crime. Shelley Glover will capitolize and likely take this from the Liberals by a couple hundred votes.
08 09 08 M.T.
The local media (CBC Radio, for example), are identifying this as one of two Winnipeg ridings (Winnipeg South Centre being the other) that could potentially turn to the Conservatives.
08 09 07
The incumbent Ray Simard may be in trouble. While he does have support from local business people and even some local conservatives, he is up against a fairly high profile CPC person: Shelly Glover. She is from the Winnipeg police and has had a high local profile on crime issues. St. Boniface is no longer a French speaking riding. It has areas which are but it is no longer a n overwhelming feature in the riding. Therefore, old Liberal traditions are declining. Also, worth noting is that this ‘safe Liberal seat’ has gone Conservative in the past: 1979 and 1984. It is probably time for at least a single term CPC candidate here.
08 09 06 Larry
Conservative candidate is energetic, knowledgeable, well-known and fluently bilingual. She has campaigned hard for two years. National polls have the Conservatives up and the Liberals down. All of this, combined with the shifting demographics of Saint Boniface, point to a Conservative gain.
08 09 04 Norm
There is a definite shift to the Conservatves is this riding. The Wpg Sun and Wpg Free Press reported this week the Conservative candidate has been campaigning for two years. The NDP are running a strong candidate which will cut into his vote substancially.
08 08 17 MG
Actually Harper was very poorly received in the community when he visited.
08 08 10 R.O.
Although traditionally a liberal riding the race has been getting closer here in recent elections. The conservatives have nominated Shelly Glover to run against longtime liberal mp Raymond Simard. The current mp has somewhat of an advantage for the time being but if conservatives focus a lot of resources here similar to Stephen Harpers recent visit to this riding it could become very close. His recent visit no doubt was a boost to the conservative campaign in this riding. But this one likely remains too close to call for the time being.
08 07 30 John M
Glover has pretty much burned her bridges in Conservative circles when she spread lies about another prominent Conservative and she is fortunate she is still even the candidate. She will have zero support come election time. It's too bad, too.
08 07 13 MG
People need to take a step back and look at the facts. It's true that there's no safe seats anymore (outside of Alberta) but this riding still needs to be put in the Liberal column.
Ray Simard is highly visible and gets around the community quite frequently. Shelly Glover, the tory candidate does not. In fact, she's almost invisible.
This riding is simply not conservative. I know safe seats are no more and that Ken Cooper came within a thousand and a half votes last time, but this riding simply won't swing for Glover. The only reason last time was close was because the NDP siphoned off enough disillusioned Grits. Of the 4000 votes that Simard lost, 3000 went to the NDP. Since the ?Park your vote with the Dippers? strategy didn't play to well for Jack, those Grits will come back to the Liberals scared of what they almost did.
Shelly Glover is not a capable campaigner and most of Cooper's experienced and capable team deserted after he left. Simard has said that he'd be more scared of Cooper running again than Glover. He was good at campaigning and had excellent contacts in the business community. He ran a fantastic campaign and still couldn't win. The Tories have hit the roof here, there's nowhere but down.
08 02 24 A.S.
Is there really that degree of young Francophone voting solidarity in Saint Boniface, let alone of the sort that'd shift wholesale from NDP to Tory? After all, the Tories gained even more ground from 2004 to 2006. And for that matter, other than in the absolute core of StBo, wouldn't the whole insular Franco-Manitoban mythology traditionally ascribed to this seat be growing increasingly diluted and vestigial over time? So, if the final push to CPC happens here now, it might merely be a matter of electoral and demographic finished business--certainly more that than the landslide fluke it was in 1984...
08 02 21 Louisette
We must look at the significant progression of the NDP vote from 2004 and 2006, which means their candidate, a young francophone, attracted many francophone voters, especially youth. The conservative candidate this time is bilingual, well known and energetic, and I think she's going to win this seat for the Tories.
08 02 07 Rebel
I think the riding will be quite tight...narrower than last time but with the Conservatives consolidating their hold on the province.
With respect to binriso's post...remember that sask/manitoba shares of a national poll are very, very small - 34% with a margin of error of 20% is meaningless. I would not want him to go out on a limb, based on one poll, only to have the Conservatives ‘soar’ in another one, with the reality of what the actual base vote actually is probably not changing much...
07 06 24 binriso
With the latest Angus Reid poll putting the Conservatives way down in MAN/SASK (34% as opposed to 46% in 2006) this riding probably leans Liberal at the moment but for now its TCTC. Interesting how Angus Reid frequently has CPC numbers way higher than any other polling company, which is another bad sign if it says the CPC are down to 34% nationally. Of course polls should not be trusted so much, but i'd have to say that there would need to be a swing in order to knock this riding away from the Liberals.
07 04 08 free_thinker
I've been to this riding and I've seen polling - it all points to a Conservative pickup. As another commentator said, look for Harper to be in this riding the first week of the campaign and several times after. This is definitely a target seat and a campaign will reflect that. I'm calling a tory pickup by a significant margin.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
I wouldn't call this yet for the Conservatives. It is true they did surprisingly well in this normally safe Liberal riding, but lets remember this still includes areas like Saint Boniface and despite Harper's gains amongst Francophones elsewhere, it is not happening here, so too close to call, but leans Liberal for the moment.
07 03 19 no
Great Tory candidate, has a real chance of knocking off the Liberal. This riding will be targeted by the national campaign. Expect Harper to come to Winnipeg the first week of the campaign, as there is a good possibilty that if the Tories hover around 39% nationally, there won't be a Liberal MP left in Winnipeg.

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