Prediction Changed
10:42 PM 20/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bruinooge, Rod
Cosby, David
Loewen, John
Christian Heritage
Loewen-Steffano, Heidi
New Democratic
Robert, Sean

Rod Bruinooge

2006 Result:
Rod Bruinooge
Reg Alcock **
Robert Page
Wesley Owen Whiteside
Heidi Loewen-Steffano

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 Daniel
CBC Radio's local polling just said this is the only riding in Winnipeg where the outcome is uncertain. This is not a safe seat for the Conservatives by any measure.
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
Bear & Ape are correct that the race is tightening up here. In fact, Democratic Space currently gives the Liberals a small advantage.
Is the reason Stephen Harper held a rally in Winnipeg yesterday because he needs to shore up his support? We'll have to see whether the possible Liberal lead for this riding holds up.
08 10 08 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Never would have thought several weeks ago but we've seen some polling data that suggests the Liberals have pulled ahead here. We say incumbent advantage for Bruinooge, but if the CPC keep slipping it will flip to the Liberals.
08 10 07 D
As much as I want the Conservatives to win, I think Loewen is going to take it this time around. Last election, Alcock was upset by the newcomer Bruinooge. Some say this is because Alcock was overconfident and gave some of his campaign workers to shore up support in South Centre, but I think one of the main reasons is that Alcock convinced Loewen to leave his position as conservative MLA in Whyte Ridge to run for the Liberals in St. James. Loewen was well liked as an MLA and was stolen away by Alcock. Since Whyte Ridge was in Alcock's federal Riding, this probably hurt him.
Now that Loewen himself is running in (part of) his old MLA stomping grounds, I think he has a good chance of winning the riding.
08 10 07 Michael B
Getting in late on this one, I'm not surprised to see the Wpg South prediction changed from TCTC fairly early. I only started seeing the Loewen signs yesterday and have had no handouts or stops at our door yet, leading me to believe the organzation is just going through the motions. Bruinooge has the lanes painted blue with his signs and while the sign war doesn't mean everything it sure suggests where the momentum is. It would be interesting to poll on the topic but I believe Bruinooges pro-life position helped - given the demographics of the riding and the fact that he must have attracted a lot of womens' auxilliaries and church groups to work his campaign. Conclusion - a much easier call than last election.
08 10 06 JB
The Liberals are expecting to lose St Boniface, and are putting everything into an attempt to retake Winnipeg South. Strategic Voting campaigns have also targeted this riding as a possible loss for the conservatives.
I would honestly be surprised if the conservatives hold.
08 10 02 reader
I can see this one going either way. On the one hand, Bruinooge is the incumbent and he managed to knock off Reg Alcock last time around, so that is saying something. But on the other hand, he might be hurt by his pro-life views getting a bit of play in the media and Loewen is going to be working the riding a lot more than Alcock did last time. That Free Press poll is interesting, but I doubt that it is very scientific.
This one should be TCTC instead of Transcona.
08 09 26 JeffJ
I just signed up to become one of the WPG Free Press insiders. All you need to know is the postal code of the riding you want to be surveyed on. The people surveyed could be from Belize for all they know.
If you believe this so-called ‘poll’ you'll have a rude awakening election night.
The freep has absolutely no idea what they are talking about here. Hire Probe Research to do a real survey based on science and publish that. Only then will you have some news to publish.
08 09 26 ESR
September 26 Winnipeg Free Press Poll has Liberal Loewen taking a 7 point lead. Although it was a poll of only 400, it puts the assumption of Winnipeg South voting Conservative in doubt. Likely the news article that stated Brunooge is stridently anti-abortion has hurt him.
08 09 26 Local observer
The Liberal challenger Loewen is 7 points up on Broonidge in the Winnipeg Free Press poll.
08 09 25 daniel
NDP and Green voters are not happy being represented by a vocal anti-abortion conservative. Considering the slender margin last time, strategic voting could return this seat to the liberal column. But of course the power of incumbancy could prove insurmountable. All things considered this riding should be in the too-close to call column right now.
08 09 25 ESR
The Winnipeg Free Press identified Conservative Bruinooge as a strident anti-abortion advocate. This will hurt the Conservatives in a moderate riding like Winnipeg South
08 09 25 Political Observer
Matt - calling the last election outcome a fluke is so obviously a partisan comment. Like Bruinooge or not, nothing that happened in Wpg South in the Bruinooge campaign was a fluke. I don't work for Bruinooge but I know several people who do. Bruinooge's campaign was an extremely well planned and executed undertaking. Defeating Reg Alcock was a surprise to almost everybody but calling it a fluke displays your inability to be objective. Yes people like John Loewen and he will do well as he did against Fletcher. The race will be close but again Bruinooge will take it. He brings the same strategy that won last time only now he has had more time to plan and execute. Again, the incumbent advantage for Bruinooge absolutely helps.
08 09 24 Matt
Bruinooge's victory last time was a fluke. This is a Liberal riding, and John Loewen is plenty strong enough to turn it back.
08 09 22 Rob
A poll in the Winnipeg Free Press over the weekend showed Bruinooge at 42%, and Liberal Candidate Loewen at 37%. The key here will be what happens to the 17% who are backing the NDP candidate. If that vote collapses and bleeds to the Liberals, then the voters of Winnipeg South may be in for another late night.
That being said, there as of yet appears to be no indication that an NDP collapse is forthcoming. Loewen will probably close the gap a bit, but it is doubtful that he'll manage to knock off the well-organized and constantly campaigning Bruinooge.
08 09 20 Political Observer
I don't think that this will be a landslide but Rod Bruinooge will win. Bruinooge is very, very smart. He's a chess player and defeated he Reg Alcock in one of the upsets of the elections last time. It was an upset for everybody except Bruinooge - his own tracking showed a tighter race than most were expecting so he stayed in his riding while Alcock, who thought he was safe, was off helping in other ridings. Similar battle this time although now several advantages go to Bruinooge. He plays the game very well and has had longer to practice. Also, the incumbent advantage is huge - especially for Bruinooge who uses this position so well. Loewen is smart and well regarded but he will not beat Bruinooge.
08 09 14 g
Loewen has been shown to be an opportunistic politician, but with bad instincts. He jumped from provincial PC leadership candidate to federal Liberal candidate only to get his head handed to him by Steven Fletcher. now he jumps to take on the Giant Killer from 06. Rod has increased his profile in the riding, he's got the power of incumbency, and overall has done a good job. Conservative hold by at least 1500 votes.
08 09 12 Chriswpg
A race between incumbent Rod Bruinooge and the Liberal candidate John Loewen(former PC MLA). First, the conservatives have the momentum and Rod Bruinooge has the incumbency advantage. Now a new poll shows he's ahead with 39.7% compared to the Liberals 28.2%. The Liberals may narrow it. However, I predict this to be a Tory hold.
08 09 11 Sara
Now with Jim Cotton running here as an independent, he will pull just votes away for Liberal win.
08 09 10
Given the Liberal candidate’s time as an MLA came to an end nearly three years ago, he may encounter some difficulty convincing voters of his brand freshness. His more recent defeat in Charleswood St. James may also cause him to have to overcome the perception of being seen as an ‘also ran’. Barring any major gaffes or gains from either party’s national campaigns, the cabinet speculation that surrounded Bruinooge earlier this year, combined with his well-oiled campaign machine should provide a narrow win for Bruinooge come election day.
08 09 08 rlb
After one weekend, it is clear that Bruinooge is very well organized - signs were all over the place on Sunday morning.
Also, Bruinooge has essentially been campaigning non-stop with taxpayer money in the form of his monthly ‘Rod Report’. The Rod Report is nothing more than a monthly Conservative Party pamphlet disguised as an MP's report that gets delivered each month to each elector in Winnipeg South.
Given the advantage of a taxpayer funded, two year long campaigning spree, I can't see how Bruinooge will not run away with this riding this time around. His incumbant advantage is too great for an admittedly qualifed opponent like Loewen to overcome.
08 09 07
This riding fits the profile of a typical CPC riding. It is suburban and packed with property owners who worry about property crimes and taxes. The only reason for it going Liberal in the past is due to the promise of having access to federal cabinet positions with the Liberals. Rod B. has done fairly well in profile, and knows how to run an effective campaign. If he can defeat Reg Alcock, he can defeat candidates who are doubtful on getting into cabinet. While Neville might hold Winnipeg South Centre for the Liberals, it is doubtful that the Liberals can take Winnipeg South back.
08 03 25 R.O.
Well it’s a little early for me to make a solid prediction here but I can say one thing this riding will get a lot more comments than the last election when it looked like liberal mp Reg Alcock was going to hold the seat only to fall on election night. Well that is now a couple of years ago and Rob Bruinooge has been an mp in the conservative government. The liberals will be running former Charleswood st james candidate John Loewen. For now I’d give a slight advantage to the mp as conservatives have a lot of support in Manitoba and liberals seem to not have as much as previous years. They held 5 seats in Winnipeg as recently as 2000 but now only hold 2.
08 02 17 A.S.
National trends mean everything here: it's either a one-time fluke of the nth degree, or an endorsement of the Conservative government status quo in which Bruinooge is but a cipher. Basically, we're facing a tug-of-war across the Red River; either Saint Boniface drags WSC into the Red Red, or WSC drags Saint Boniface into the Blue Red. Or, puff, pant, a draw. (Provincially, though, this southward stretch of the 'Peg has ducked the question by going more Doer NDP with each election.)
08 02 06 A. Lewis
‘This riding leans Liberal and had Reg Alcock spent more than 2 days campaigning in his own riding, he probably would have won.’
That's absolutely correct. Alcock was a solid performer and him not running in 2008/9 is a very major loss for the Liberals and Canada.
An ex-PC without a national presence isn't going to take this from an incumbent without a major shift to the Liberals that probably wouldn't affect Manitoba anyway. The national party's focus might be elsewhere in both parties but I give this to the incumbent just due to the morale factor.
08 02 03 James C
As one person pointed out, I called it almost exactly one week before last election. So now I am making my prediction again.
This time, I see the Liberals stealing the seat by 300-400 votes.
People are going back to the Liberals this time . It will be a race to watch , but you heard it here first, a Liberal victory, as long as there are no major screw-ups by Dion.
07 11 04 Rebel
Dear binriso...I fear you are becoming as much a predictor of Liberal victories as I often am for Conservatives.
As often as not, I suppose we will both be right but I do challenge your hopes for Winnipeg South. The defeat of Reg Alcock in 2006 was possible the biggest shocker of the election. I had no clue it might happen. Substituting a defeated ex-PC MLA for Alcock can only begin a strategy of despair.
Now I see an election coming only next Spring...after another budget and when last week's income tax reduction is 'in the mail'. I am still trying to figure out where Dion will run best (BC is arguable), but I have little difficulty in anticipating that it will not be in Manitoba.
With a giant-killing incumbent MP locally and with an official opposition in some disarray nationally and especially in Manitoba, I would see Bruinooge's winning margin increase to the 2,500-3,000 range or maybe more.
07 10 26 Buhay
I just attended Dion's gathering in Winnipeg the other week. Most of the attendees were Liberals who clapped at every point Dion made, but it was a public (and free) gathering so I decided to go.
At the meeting, Loewen was the MC and I was able to ask him a couple questions after Dion's speech. I asked Loewen what the state of his campaign was and he said they were just starting to recruit volunteers - not bad for an unelected politician who doesn't know when the election is.
The problem was that his public speaking ability and confidence seemed lacking and I actually thought he was a rookie candidate, not a failed former candidate and party-switching MLA (I didn't realize he switched ridings).
On the other hand, I know the current Tory MP and I know he's a solid campaigner who not only beat out a sitting cabinet minister in the last election but is now part of a popular gov't. Bruinooge started campaigning before the election was called last time as well and from what he told me, had well-worn shoes and tires traveling the riding.
Comparing the two candidates (and not to mention what would happen if there was a strong NDP candidate too), I would give this riding to the Conservatives.
07 10 11 Stevo
The #1 biggest election-night 2006 shocker. Nothing else comes close to Rod Bruinooge's out-of-right-field taking down of Reg Alcock - not an easy man to take down, electorally or, given his girth, literally. Hats off to the commentator ‘James C’ in the 2006 thread for this riding, who called the result in Winnipeg South almost exactly, one week prior to the vote. I doubt that John Loewen's candidacy will make much of a difference - a previous failed federal candidate and party-hopper, his time in the provincial legislature becoming more distant with each passing year. I won't call this one with no federal election yet in sight, but Bruinooge's chances of re-election look very promising. You can expect Harper to be in Winnipeg fairly regularly whenever the next election is called.
07 10 02 Nick J Boragina
In the US they talk about the sophomore advantage. The idea that your first re-election bid is when you get your highest vote total. The closest we get to that in Canada is the first election following a David victory against Goliath. Alcock was a Goliath, and now that David has won, he is the incumbent. Liberals will remember the horrible shock of losing and will have some fear and doubt in their mind when campaigning the next time around. Unless there is a move in the polls towards the Liberals, this riding will only see the gap increase. There is no Goliath this time, and the incumbent is from the other party. That spells another CPC win.
07 09 25 binriso
Here's some simple logic for the previous poster: If you are close in a riding, you pursue a stronger candidate with much more effort than in a lost cause like Crowfoot. 111 votes is pretty damn close and the Liberals will clearly put alot of effort into taking this back. Not to mention polls show that no one is going anywhere above 35% recently, Liberal numbers are about equal from last election, hardly failing support. Most of them show the CPC down a bit too. Now obviously Quebec by-election results give them momentum, but that cannot affect Manitoba ridings overly much, and its just momentum not actual votes.
And guess what? The Liberals found their strong candidate, former PC MLA John Loewen who although lost by quite a bit in 2006, was facing Stephen Fletcher in Charleswood St James Assiniboia. His old constituency Fort Whyte is actually in Winnipeg South too (or at least partly) so he'll have at least a few loyalists from his days as an MLA. Not to mention, every other riding (besides Fort Whyte) in Winnipeg South provincially are now held by the left of center NDP, possible bad news for the right of center CPC. Also, this is likely number 1 on the Liberal targetting list(Parry Sound Muskoka's closer result was more because of the popularity of the local MP) and Winnipeg South was the 2nd closest loss for the Liberals in Canada. There is no doubt they will go after this seat aggressively and I think they will win.
However, it is true that Liberal momentum is sagging after the by-election loss in Quebec and the low showings in the 2 outside Montreal and Dion's leadership is being questioned and the party is becoming more divided. Only if the campaign goes very poorly for the Liberals(ie alot worse than 06) will the CPC will hold here. If it goes similar to 06(and Loewen campaigns alot in the riding, or at least more than Reg Alcock) or better, the Liberals will win. Not to mention since its creation its been mostly Liberal wins here about 2x as many years as the CPC/PC/Unionists.
07 09 15
‘Id have to say this one will go back to the Liberals next election, it was won by 100 votes in an election with a blue surge and a red fall. It'll be close but the Liberals will most likely put a lot of effort and a strong candidate to take this one back.’ -- Birinsio
Birinsio, you make it sound like it's so easy to recruit a strong candidate into ridings. It's a lot of work, and will be difficult for the Liberals especially in the opposition status and falling support. Also, the Liberals are seriously lacking in funding. The Conservatives fundraised 10 times more than the Liberals did. With Dion at the helm, I see very little chance of a ‘red surge’, but in fact backlash. The Conservatives' momentum will be at full force come election day, and Rod Bruinooge has been a very decent MP, and a potential contender for cabinet, especially in the Indian Affairs portfolio. He will be re-elected, but it will be a fight for sure.
07 06 08 binriso
Id have to say this one will go back to the Liberals next election, it was won by 100 votes in an election with a blue surge and a red fall. It'll be close but the Liberals will most likely put a lot of effort and a strong candidate to take this one back.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This riding leans Liberal and had Reg Alcock spent more than 2 days campaigning in his own riding, he probably would have won. However, now with the Tories having the incumbent advantage, a lot will depend on how they do nationally. If they get a majority or a stronger minority government this should stay Conservative, but if they lose or win a weaker minority, this should return to the Liberal fold.

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