Prediction Changed
10:38 AM 02/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Winnipeg South Centre
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Heinrichs, Rachel
Kennerd, Trevor
Neville, Anita
Scott, Vere

Hon. Anita Neville

2006 Result:
Anita Neville **
Michael Richards
Mark Wasyliw
Vere H. Scott
Dale Swirsky
Jeffrey Anderson
Magnus Thompson

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 01 James Edwards
This Liberal bastion may topple to the Tory hoards for the first time in a generation. What was once a very safe Liberal seat, in fact the only Western seat besides Turner's in the debacle of 1984, is facing Tory surge. The only thing that is going to keep it Liberal by under a 1000 votes is the local NDP campaign is non-existent. After spirited runs by James Allum in 2004 and Mark Wasilw in 2006, the NDP for some reason has thrown in the towel on the race by nominating a no-name student union rep who can't even be bothered to have a campaign office this time around. That should be a godsend for the Liberals, as they should be able to cherry pick some votes from the NDP in areas like Riverview, the Village, Fort Rouge and Lord Roberts and make up for any gains the Tories will make in Tuxedo, River Heights or Fort Garry.
It is going to be close, but if Axworthy could hold in 1984 against the Mulroney wave, I think Neville should be able to hold against the minor bump in Harper's popularity. This might be the only Liberal seat west of Thunderbay!
08 09 30 Sylia
This will be a difficult hold for Neville, more so after the whole Hughes debacle. One day Dion is being shepherded through various Jewish community centres by Neville and 2 days later he is dumping a Winnipeg candidate for declaring that Jewish people were warned about 9/11 so not one of them came to work that day. This is not exactly helpful to Anita. The perception exists now that if this had not come out very publicly the LPC does not seem to see problems running a candidate who holds these kinds of views.
Anita is not the only one with friends in that community. Some of the people who are quietly supporting Trevor might surprise you.
08 09 26 Local observer
The Winnipeg Free Press shows incumbent Anita Neville with a 17-point lead over Kennerd. Neville is a strong constituency politician who has withstood strong challenges in the past.
08 09 25 daniel
The NDP is not running a serious campaign in this riding, and many Green / NDP voters in this riding are extremely worried about a Harper majority. Neville will win by a bigger margin than last time.
08 09 24 Matt
Neville always seems to win this riding fairly easily and I don't think this time will be any different.
08 09 20 Rich
Despite Conservative ambitions, Neville will retain in Winnipeg South Centre. The NDP ran credible candidates in the last two elections and got respectable vote totals both times. This time around, the NDP seem to be ignoring this seat, so a lot of their vote will bleed towards the Liberals. Neville should win somewhat comfortably.
08 09 16 eric
It'll be close but Neville will win this. Kennerd, unlike the other Tory star candidate running in Winnipeg, campaigned for a while before the election started and has a bit more credibility on the issues. The difficulty is the NDP don't seem to putting a great deal of effort here: last I heard and saw, they still haven't nominated a candidate here and the last 2 campaigns, the NDP ran strong campaigns to get into the early 20s percent. That NDP support will inevitably bleed to Neville. If lawn signs are any indication, Neville is still very strong in River Heights.
08 09 14 ghoris
History shows that even if the Liberals only elect win a handful of ridings west of the Lakehead, this will be one of them. The NDP has been trying for the last two election cycles to turn this into a three-way race but it's just too wealthy a riding. If Harper looks like he might win a majority a lot of the NDP vote will shift to Neville. It will be close, but only because Neville is such a dreadful candidate. She may very well be the only Liberal left standing in Manitoba on October 15.
08 09 10 III
I don't think that the Liberals have very many party members left in Manitoba. If this turns to a grassroots battle for seats they will lose two ways - to CPC and NDP.
08 09 10 Chriswpg
Anita Neville has another fight on her hands with Trevor Kennerd. Another Conservative ?star? candidate. The trend seems to be showing that when the Conservatives are doing well nationally, the vote total in ridings like these go up as well. This doesn't bode that well for Anita Neville. Having said that though, haven't heard any grumblings towards her in particular. She's a tough fighter when election time comes around and she has likely solidified support here. So, I'm predicting a squeaker for Anita Neville.
08 09 10
This will be close and Kennard will surely do better than Steen given the months he's organized before the election. That said, the NDP don't have a candidate nominated here yet so I would expect that they won't be as big factor as they were in the last election which will help Anita Neville and the Liberals. It will be close but the Liberals should hold here.
08 09 08 M.T.
The local media (CBC Radio, for example), are identifying this as one of two Winnipeg ridings (St. Boniface being the other) that could potentially turn to the Conservatives.
08 09 07 Kit A
The polling data that was released leading up to the 2006 election had Libs and CPC at dead heat. This galvanized Liberal workers across the city and the Liberals won the riding. In part this was due to the female vote, and it can be expected that this will work again in the Liberal's favour, especially in light of a retired CFL player running against her. What will work against Neville is that Paul Martin is no longer leader and the Liberals are not expected to form the government according to many in Winnipeg. I would give her 60:40 odds here. Will also be looking to see how many votes the NDP siphon from Neville.
08 09 06 Sylia
I do not see Neville holding on to this one.
She was nearly knocked off by Michael Richards last time, and most likely would have lost the seat if she hadn't been rescued by the last ditch intervention of Reg Alcock and his machine. Reg's organization spent so much time and effort propping her up, we all know what happened to his seat. She had no organization last time and I don't see it as much different this time around - only she doesn't have Alcock to back her up now. Lloyd is too busy playing emperor in his little academic fiefdom to be bothered with the riding; there is also at least one prominent Liberal in the riding licking their chops waiting to have the seat handed to them in the same way that she inherited it since Anita was not supposed to be running this time around. I guess that's off now.
Factors on Kennard's side include that he is a resident of the riding (unlike Richards) who has been very much involved in his community at the local level (also unlike Richards). He is a small businessman, unlike the usual career bureaucrats favored by the Liberals (Neville worked for the Province of Manitoba and ran one of the most free-spending, bloated school divisions in the province). Then, there is also the predilection of some of her caucus colleagues openly marching in support of Hezbollah - not something that sits well with the citizens in the riding who happen to support Israel.
On the eastern side of the riding, much of the vote will be split amongst the left. The Greens and NDP may siphon off more of those votes, and there may be some who decide to just sit this one out.
If the Kennard campaign makes a concerted effort to get the Conservative vote out, he could win.
08 03 29 binriso
Probably Liberal, you?d have to think they?ll try hard to save their seats out west (specifically urban ones) rather than being marginalized as an Ontario/Montreal-Anglo Quebec/Atlantic Party. This will be the last seat they lose before they get swept out of the province, which is why think they will hold it, because they aren?t going to get swept out of Manitoba unless Harper gives a ton of money to Winnipeg and the CPC only hold 3 out of 8 seats in Winnipeg not to mention one by 100 votes. Liberals haven?t lost this seat on its current boundaries either when it was renamed in 1988. Nevilles been there for 3 terms as well, and has faced candidates who although weren?t stars, were decent enough. Hard to choose against her so Id say the Liberals win by a similar margin. NDP vote probably goes down a bit because of some peoples fear of a Harper majority and will help the Liberals here.
08 03 17 Greg P
This is going to be one to watch. Provided Kennerd does more campaigning pre-writ then Richards did during 2005, expect this one to go right down to the wire. Winnipeg South will be targeted by the Conservatives, and South-Centre will get some benefits from that. Fletcher won't be as concerned about his own riding (much weaker opponent then Murray or Loewen), so will be able to spend more time helping other ridings. Add to this the fact that Neville isn't exactly known as the best constituency-MP, and this one is TCTC.
08 02 15 A.S.
Actually, I find that CFLers tend to be overrated as star-candidate prospects, or get tripped up (fairly or unfairly) by a general meathead reputation--particularly when their chosen party is that most (fairly or unfairly) meathead-reputationed-of-all, Conservative. (Though it didn't hurt Premier Getty in Alberta--then again, maybe it did.) Considering that the seat's been a little like the heart and soul of Winnipeg Liberalism (Lloyd Axworthy federally, of course, plus provincial leaders Carstairs and Gerrard), Anita Neville's done sluggishly, and she's lucky that her opponents regularly cancel each other out anyway--when all is said and done, WSC ought to be something of a 'Peg version of St. Paul's in Toronto, anyway...
08 02 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Trevor Kennerd will do his best to sack Anita Neville and the general consensus that the CPC have been doing an alright job tackling a variety of issues may help him do that. (Okay we'll stop with the football puns) Many have said that Neville isn't a strong MP. Then again, the same has been said of Sue Barnes in London West. Barnes was up against a very famous sports-related name, ‘Gretzky’ but still hung on in '06. Now Neville is up against a CFL name. Problem is, Central Winnipeg isn't the most CPC-friendly local, nor are the CPC doing better in the polls than they did in ‘06. Liberals have been holding their own though (as week as it may have been). Though we concede that a TCTC prediction is not unwarrented at the moment, a CPC prediction is a little premature. We think St. Boniface would go CPC first.
08 02 06
Current prediction: Leaning Conservative
I think the CPC's nomination of CFL-star Trevor Kennard is a blow to Neville's campaign. Neville hasn't been the most effective MP, and that will lose her votes. This seat is absolutely winnable for the CPC and Kennard should be able to bridge the 3000 vote gap the CPC lost by in 2006.
07 04 09 JC
Liberals are now all but assured of holding onto this seat after Trevor Kennerd despite being a fairly high profile candidate, will be dogged by this race by his hard-right wing views, despite his high profile and despite Neville maybe not being the greatest MP in the world, she is going to win because she is a little more moderate then Kennard.
07 04 08 free_thinker
To close to call with an advantage to the Liberal party. This is definitely a target seat and Nevile has been a very ineffective MP in both government and opposition. I would lean towards calling this for the CPC but the Liberals ground organization could hold it. For the time being its TCTC.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
Despite all the Conservatives talking about winning this riding, this is really too close to Downtown Winnipeg for a Conservative pick-up. The only way they could take this is with a strong NDP showing. They are strong in Tuxedo section on the west side of the riding, but extremely weak on the East side, so unless they can get over 50% on the west side of the riding, they won't be able to counter their weakness on the East side. They might pick-up Saint Boniface, but they won't pick this one up.

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