Prediction Changed
3:47 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Prince Albert
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Canadian Action
Batley, Craig
Liberal
Doderai, Lou
Conservative
Hoback, Randy
New Democratic
Mushinski, Valerie
Green
Smytaniuk, Amanda Judith Marie

Incumbent:
Brian Fitzpatrick

2006 Result:
Brian Fitzpatrick **
17271
Valerie Mushinski
7562
Patrick Jahn
6149
Larry Zepp
744

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 03 31 R.O.
66.186.79.122
Longtime conservative mp Brian Fitzpatrick is not running again here. The conservatives have nominated a new candidate Randy Hoback and ndp are running Valerie Mushinski again as for liberals unsure. Conservatives have the advantage here since riding has been mostly conservative over the years. But I wonder if come next election opposition might focus more time on some of the vacant ridings since they will realise ones with mp?s especially out west aren?t really in play. But being in Saskatchewan and previous margins its likely to stay where it is.
08 02 27 John D
128.233.152.32
Correction for Nick, Prince Albert has a NDP MLA and a Saskatchewan Party MLA.
08 02 26 A.S.
99.233.96.153
Prince Albert is now rote CPC, a far cry from its having been represented by two PMs (Mackenzie King; Diefenbaker) and otherwise been affiliated w/some form or another of prairie populism. (Last plainly evidenced when David Orchard ran here for the PCs in 2000--then again, if one considers today's Tories as heirs to Preston Manning's Reform, the spirit vestigially remains.) It may be an open seat now; but the recent electoral patterns have suggested Grits and NDP in mutual cancellation here, and the byelection nomination debacle next door in DMCR doesn't help matters--though hey, if the spurned David Orchard wants to try his now-Liberal luck here instead, fire away. Otherwise, given the CPC electoral monolith and skimpy resources at hand, Grit/NDP has more tempting fish to fry in Saskatchewan...
07 09 16 Nick J Boragina
74.13.125.185
The city of Prince Albert itself is not all that right-wing. As far as I know, both city ridings have provincial NDP MLAs. I also know that both neighbouring rural ridings have Saskatchewan Party MLAs, and that their margin of victory was far wider then the urban NDP. Id not be surprised to hear the NDP or Liberals win the urban areas of this riding, but the Prince Albert riding expands far beyond city limits. Most of the rural area will continue to vote CPC by huge margins, and even with a third of the vote in the city proper, its enough to back up the rural supermajority, and allow the CPC to win once again.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Brian Fitzpatrick isn't running again, but considering that outside of the Far North, Regina, and Saskatoon, the Tories pretty much dominate the rest of the province, I expect the Tories to hold this one, although I wouldn't be surprised if they fall below 50%.



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