Prediction Changed
5:02 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Bernier, Janice
Chatterson, Greg
Flaman, Rod
Scheer, Andrew

Andrew Scheer

2006 Result:
Andrew Scheer **
Lorne Nystrom
Allyce Herle
Brett Dolter

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 09 28 P.S.
The comment that Mr. Scheer is not well thought of in the urban portion of the riding is simply not accurate. Is he incredibly popular, no, but he's by no means considered a bad MP.
There is still going to be enough center-left split for him to take this riding, perhaps by as big margin as he had the last time.
The NDP does not have enough rural support and the Liberal support will be less than before thanks to their 'leadership' from Ottawa.
08 09 28
I think this riding should be too close to call or lean NDP. This riding is remarkable similar to Saskatoon Rosetwon Biggar. It is a mix of inner city, work class burbs, and formerally left leaning rural areas. If anything Regina Qu'appelle is much more NDP ridding. The reason why the Scheer won this was a strong Liberal cannidate that targeted the Aboriginal Community. Last time the Liberals won almost a 100% of the reserve vote. This time it is going NDP. The difference between SRB and RQ is an 12% vs 22% for liberal. If you shift that extra 10% back to the ndp, you get an NDP win. THis predcition is going to be dead wrong
08 09 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Actually, our aquatic mammal friend, calling this TCTC isn't far fetched at all. In 2006 the opposition to Scheer was split between two left of centre parties. Now the Liberals are tanking worse than in 2006, especially out west. If the bulk of that vote goes NDP, then the NDP could take it. It also helps the NDP that they're leader looks pretty good. We're not saying that will happen (actually we think Scheer will take this seat back), just saying that it is still a fair bet to say TCTC, especially with the volitility of the electorate.
08 09 24 Sea Otter
A two term incumbent MP is running for re-election. He won by a 2,700 vote margin in the last election against a well known national figure. The incumbent MP managed to get a Private Member's Bill passed by the House, and has kept a high profile in the riding. The incumbent MP's party is in government, well ahead in the polls, and looks to be cruising to victory nationally. And this riding is being listed as, ‘too close to call’? You've got to be kidding me.
In Canadian elections, very few incumbent MPs from the winning party end up losing their seats. The notion that an incumbent M.P. who won comfortably in 2006 might lose his seat on a night when his party is going to gain seats and form government is incredibly far fetched.
08 09 13 Giant Political Mouse
The NDP has always had a problem with the split rural/urban seats in Saskatchewan and this one is no exception. However, the CPC incumbent is largely considered a total idiot in the city of Regina, so he needs (and usually gets) a strong rural vote to win. With the Liberals running a fairly well-known farmer and director of the Wheat Board, there is a good chance that they will steal just enough rural votes to allow the NDP to win based on the strength of the urban vote alone. I think this might be the only seat to go NDP in Saskatchewan (And I admit that it won't be a resounding victory)
08 09 09 SJ
I have to dispute Energuy's notion that the equalization issue is going to hurt the Tories in Saskatchewan. The provincial NDP ran hard against Harper in the last election on precisely that assumption and got their heads handed to them. I mean, I'm no fan of the NDP, so if that's the way you want to run it, have a ball -- but whining that we deserve handouts even in the midst of boom times does not win over stubblejumpers, as Lorne Calvert learned to his cost.
08 09 09 Adrena Lynn
I'm going to say this one's TCTC, even though the Tories solidified their vote from 2004. It really depends on whether the NDP candidate has a high enough profile. But then again, Lorne Nystrom had a pretty high profile and he got beat.
08 02 27 John D
Easy hold for the Conservative Party. The riding given the split 50/50 can allow for the Conservative candidate to win hands down in the rural areas and do poorly in the city and still win thanks to the split with the NDP and Liberals. Though to correct Nick Saskatoon is growing faster than most Canadian cities and Regina is growing near the national average.
08 02 12 A.S.
Once a leader-in-waiting, Lorne Nystrom was so past his sell-by date in 2006 that Nettie Wiebe actually surpassed him as Sask's top NDP prospect. Sans Nystrom, the scenario resembles that of RLLC next door: garbled, and maybe Tory advantage by status-quo and opposition-split default. Okay, maybe come *next* redistribution, Saskatchewan'll be rid of these darned urban-rural seats that're Tory drops in the bucket...
07 12 09 Energuy
The NDP and the Liberals are splitting the vote in this riding. Between them they got 53% of the vote. Either the NDP or the Liberal candidate can win if they can convince the other side that they have the winning candidate.
Conservative support will suffer as a result of the equalization issue. Other issues that may impact the conservative support are the Karlheinz Schrieber affair, program cuts for women and minorities, and the difficulties in the livestock sector.
The Liberal candidate is a Director of the Canadian Wheat Board and will pick up some of the rural NDP votes on this basis. The Liberal platform adresses many of the concerns of NDP voters and the election of a Liberal MP can result in this riding being represented in the government.
This riding will be a close race.
07 10 18 T.V.
To think that a new candidate could do better than an icon with total name recognition like Lorne Nystrom, bad campaign or not, is pretty questionable in my opinion. That being said, the Liberal vote will likely go down since their candidate won't be the sister of the national campaign manager. That does make it still possible for an NDP pickup.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 05 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Latest poll has the Conservatives down 8% with the NDP up 8% in western Canada. Same poll has Greens down 3% and Liberals up 3%. Granted an election is not anytime soon, but with numbers like that and the Sask government really honked off about the budget, this is one that could easily flip to the NDP unless things change.
07 04 24 Saskwatcher
Although Scheer won this riding by an increased margin, the fundamentals behind the NDP riding association have changed. By election day last year, Nystrom had less people volunteering for him in the riding as a whole than the Palliser campaign had in the Cathedral district of Regina.
This time around the NDP has nominated Janice Bernier, one of Regina's best known volunteers. She is well known for her annual charity Christmas dinner and has a great deal of credibility amongst first nations people. Additionally, the coffers of the riding association are once again beginning to swell, and my sources tell me that Janice has increased her campaign volunteer force ten-fold from what Nystrom had.
07 04 17 DMD
Everyone said 2004 was a fluke; everyone said watch out, in 2006, now that Lorne knows he needs to work for it. And even I believed it. Yet Mr Scheer won with a pretty decent margin again, against an established and well-favoured NDP icon. He is a personable, articulate and intelligent man, able to engage well with voters of all sorts in face to face situations; he has had the remarkable compliment, for one so young, of serving as a deputy Speaker in the House and, frankly, unless the Liberal vote collapses completely AND goes overwhelmingly to the NDP, he's going to hold this seat and continue to grow into a young Parliamnetarian to watch.
07 04 03 Nick J Boragina
In the last election I called this for the tories, despite Nystrom's run (I voted for him as NDP leader back when I was a member BTW), this time Nystrom is nowhere to be found; the tories can coast here and still win.

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