Prediction Changed
3:47 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Ducasse, Jean-Pierre
Parhar, Karen
New Democratic
Ruston, Scott
Trost, Brad

Brad Trost

2006 Result:
Brad Trost **
Andrew Mason
Peter Stroh
Mike E. Jones
Tim Nyborg

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 02 26 A.S.
Mind the fact that, provincially speaking, Sask-Humboldt contains the present-day heart of ‘Sask Party’ Saskatoon. Though it's funny to think that in spite of Trost's most recent 20-point landslide margin, what the NDP still managed to get in '06 would have been enough to win in '04's electoral multi-car pileup...
07 09 25 Christopher
He got lucky with a close 4-way race in 2004, but now even with a reduced Conservative vote Brad Trost would likely walk away with this one.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
Brad Trost should have little trouble winning here since the only reason it was close in 2004 was because Jim Pankiw was running as an independent and the fact have two arch right wingers running and still result in a Conservative victory pretty much says they have a lock on this one. Even Saskatoon, which is less conservative than the rural areas, Brad Trost still won, although by a much smaller margin.
07 04 05 Elessar
Brad is now a two-time incumbent in a strong Conservative riding. In the previous election, his lead grew from 417 votes to 7310 votes. The strong showing of the Conservatives in polls can do nothing but help.

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