Prediction Changed
3:47 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
New Democratic
Davidson, Clint
Green
Smith, Tobi-Dawne
Conservative
Vellacott, Maurice
Liberal
Zipchen, Patricia

Incumbent:
Maurice Vellacott

2006 Result:
Maurice Vellacott **
17753
Chris Axworthy
8655
Jim Maddin
7939
Don Cameron
1292
Dale Sanders
307

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 10 billy
70.64.106.251
City portion will be split apart. The rural will be a Tory landslide. Hold your noses everyone - Vellacott will still be the sitting MP.
08 09 11 Policy Wonk
64.201.205.9
This is a safe Conservative seat even though the incumbent has done little for the riding. With all of the challenges facing Canada and with all the potential in Saskatchewan Vellacott's recent mailer focusing singularly on the issue of the evils of allowing smoking and free tattoos in federal prisons shows that he has his hand placed firmly on the pulse of this conservative riding. This riding is a lock for the Conservatives.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
Equalization or not, Vellacott was re-elected here with a massive margin. It would take all the anti-CPC vote coalescing around a single party to knock off someone like Vellacott. If that starts to happen, then I might change my prediction, but for now Iím calling this one blue based on math.
07 09 25 Christopher
70.64.2.19
Strong Conservative riding with over 80% turnout in many of the rural polls! Pretty much guaranteed a Vellacot victory unless the Liberals manage to pull out a big name like David Orchard. Even then it seems unlike he'd be unseated.... Chris Axworthy couldn't do it after all.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
198.169.112.254
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 04 25 A.S.
74.99.222.209
It isn't that SaskWan has the greatest rural proportion, it's that its rural proportion carries the heart of the Martensville-zone Bible belt. (Also explains the controversies about Vellacott.) He had interesting opposition last time; both ex-NDP MP/MLA Chris Axworthy for a second Liberal goaround, and ex-Saskatoon mayor Jim Maddin for the NDP. They cancelled each other out, and Axworthy was further cancelled out by an anti-Vellacott smear from his camp. Martensville notwithstanding, the seat still could be non-Reform-a-Tory winnable under 1988 or even 1993 circumstances--but only if there's a huge Saskatchewan trend, or if Vellacott did a Jim Pankiw and went SoCon indy...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Maurice Vellacott is one of the more right wing members who often causes the party trouble, but considering that of the Saskatoon ridings, this has the greatest percentage of people living in rural portions, that pretty much assures he will easily take this even if he loses in the Saskatoon portion as he did in 2004.



Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster