Prediction Changed
3:47 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Davidson, Clint
Smith, Tobi-Dawne
Vellacott, Maurice
Zipchen, Patricia

Maurice Vellacott

2006 Result:
Maurice Vellacott **
Chris Axworthy
Jim Maddin
Don Cameron
Dale Sanders

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 10 billy
City portion will be split apart. The rural will be a Tory landslide. Hold your noses everyone - Vellacott will still be the sitting MP.
08 09 11 Policy Wonk
This is a safe Conservative seat even though the incumbent has done little for the riding. With all of the challenges facing Canada and with all the potential in Saskatchewan Vellacott's recent mailer focusing singularly on the issue of the evils of allowing smoking and free tattoos in federal prisons shows that he has his hand placed firmly on the pulse of this conservative riding. This riding is a lock for the Conservatives.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Equalization or not, Vellacott was re-elected here with a massive margin. It would take all the anti-CPC vote coalescing around a single party to knock off someone like Vellacott. If that starts to happen, then I might change my prediction, but for now Iím calling this one blue based on math.
07 09 25 Christopher
Strong Conservative riding with over 80% turnout in many of the rural polls! Pretty much guaranteed a Vellacot victory unless the Liberals manage to pull out a big name like David Orchard. Even then it seems unlike he'd be unseated.... Chris Axworthy couldn't do it after all.
07 06 26 SaskPhoenix
I am not going to make a prediction as of now, but with the way things are looking for the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs over the broken equalization promises, their re-election chances have become weaker. If Premier Calvert and public opinion continue against the Tories, the urban Tory MPS could be turfed out by angry voters on election day.
07 04 25 A.S.
It isn't that SaskWan has the greatest rural proportion, it's that its rural proportion carries the heart of the Martensville-zone Bible belt. (Also explains the controversies about Vellacott.) He had interesting opposition last time; both ex-NDP MP/MLA Chris Axworthy for a second Liberal goaround, and ex-Saskatoon mayor Jim Maddin for the NDP. They cancelled each other out, and Axworthy was further cancelled out by an anti-Vellacott smear from his camp. Martensville notwithstanding, the seat still could be non-Reform-a-Tory winnable under 1988 or even 1993 circumstances--but only if there's a huge Saskatchewan trend, or if Vellacott did a Jim Pankiw and went SoCon indy...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Maurice Vellacott is one of the more right wing members who often causes the party trouble, but considering that of the Saskatoon ridings, this has the greatest percentage of people living in rural portions, that pretty much assures he will easily take this even if he loses in the Saskatoon portion as he did in 2004.

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